MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

31 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Correcting Back To $1.1750-1.1838

*RES 4: $1.1889 Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 3: $1.1838 High May 17

*RES 2: $1.1794 21-DMA

*RES 1: $1.1750 High May 24

*PRICE: $1.1663 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1643 Alternating support/resistance 

*SUP 2: $1.1594 Hourly support May 30 

*SUP 3: $1.1549 Hourly resistance May 30 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29

*COMMENTARY: O/S daily studies appear to be impacting with a rally from ahead of

2018 lows. The close above $1.1643 eases bearish pressure with bulls now looking

for a correction back to $1.1750-1.1838. Bulls need a close above $1.1838 to

confirm a break of the 21-DMA and target $1.2015-53 where the 200-DMA is noted.

Bears now look for a close below $1.1594 to return immediate pressure to 2018

lows.

     CABLE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.3325

*RES 4: $1.3421 Low May 23 

*RES 3: $1.3405 55-WMA 

*RES 2: $1.3351 Hourly resistance May 25 

*RES 1: $1.3325 High May 29

*PRICE: $1.3302 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3240 Low May 30 

*SUP 2: $1.3203 2018 Low May 29 

*SUP 3: $1.3064 100-WMA 

*SUP 4: $1.3037 Monthly Low Nov 3

*COMMENTARY: Despite gaining traction below the 55-WMA O/S studies appear to be

impacting with support layers starting to accumulate. In saying that, bulls now

need a close above $1.3325 to gain breathing room and target a correction back

to $1.3421-1.3617 where 21 ($1.3446) & 200 ($1.3582) DMAs are located. Above

$1.3617 then targets $1.3792-1.3893. While $1.3325 caps bears remain focused on

$1.2995-1.3064.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y109.13

*RES 4: Y110.72 Hourly support May 22 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y110.19 200-DMA 

*RES 2: Y109.69 21-DMA 

*RES 1: Y109.13 Hourly resistance May 29

*PRICE: Y108.77 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.14 55-DMA, 100-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y107.85 High Apr 20 now support 

*SUP 3: Y106.85 Low Apr 17 

*SUP 4: Y106.60 Low Apr 10

*COMMENTARY: Tuesday's sell-off saw the pair dip into the Y107.85-108.16 region

where 55 & 100-DMAs and the 21-WMA (Y108.12) are situated. Bears continue to

look for a close below Y107.85 to confirm breaks of 55 & 100-DMAs and shift

initial focus to Y106.60. Daily studies have room to move before O/S is an

issue. Bulls still need a close above Y109.13 to gain breathing room and above

Y110.72 to shift initial focus back to Y111.39-98.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y127.30 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: Y129.38 21-DMA

*RES 3: Y129.09 200-WMA

*RES 2: Y128.53 High May 28

*RES 1: Y127.30 High May 30

*PRICE: Y126.88 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y126.22 Hourly support May 30 

*SUP 2: Y125.71 Hourly support May 30a 

*SUP 3: Y124.61 2018 Low May 29 

*SUP 4: Y123.63 Low June 21 2017

*COMMENTARY: The failure to gain traction below the 100-WMA (Y125.15) and

confirm the break of the pivotal Y125.80 level has resulted in a bounce

Wednesday. Correcting O/S studies add support to the case for a correction back

to Y128.53-129.59 where the 21-DMA & 200-WMA are found. Bulls now need a close

above Y127.30 to confirm the correction. Layers of support are building with

bears now needing a close below Y125.71 to return initial pressure to 2018 lows.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: 100-DMA Remains Key Resistance

*RES 4: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8855 55-WMA 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8847 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8791 100-DMA

*PRICE: Gbp0.8767 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8741 High May 29 now support 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8694 Hourly support May 30 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8678 Low Apr 26 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8664 Hourly breakout level Apr 18

*COMMENTARY: Pressure continues to return to the 100-DMA with bears failing to

capitalise on previous rejections ahead of the 100-DMA. Bulls continue to look

for a close above the 100-DMA to return initial pressure to Gbp0.8847-0.8904

where the 55-WMA & 200-DMA are located. Initial support is now noted at

Gbp0.8741 with bears needing a close below to shift initial focus to Gbp0.8694

and overall focus back to 2018 lows.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bounce Returns Focus To Falling TL

*RES 4: $0.7644 - Falling daily TL off 2018 high

*RES 3: $0.7620 - High Apr 24, 55-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7602 - Bollinger band top

*RES 1: $0.7590- High May 25

*PRICE: $0.7563 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7530 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7474 - Low May 30 

*SUP 3: $0.7457 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $0.7445 - Low May 15

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on the close below the 21-DMA with

Wednesday's rally and close back above the 21-DMA returning focus to

$0.7590-0.7644 where the 55-DMA and falling daily TL are noted. Bulls need a

close above the falling daily TL to end bearish hopes and shift focus to

$0.7735-0.7842. Bears again look for a close below the 21-DMA to gain breathing

room and add weight to the case for a test of 2018 lows.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Correcting To 93.291-611

*RES 4: 95.167 - Monthly High Oct 27 

*RES 3: 95.025 - 2018 High May 29 

*RES 2: 94.695 - Hourly resistance May 30 

*RES 1: 94.236 - Hourly support May 30 now resistance

*PRICE: 94.031 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 93.611 - Low May 24

*SUP 2: 93.420 - 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 93.291 - Low May 22

*SUP 4: 92.841 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: Wednesday's sell-off resulted in a close below 94.277, easing

bullish pressure and seeing the index flirt with the daily bull channel base

(94.147). Bears now look for a close below this level to add weight to the case

for a correction initially targeting 93.291-611 where the 21-DMA is located.

Correcting O/B studies are a concern for bulls who now need a close above 94.695

to pressure 2018 highs.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.922 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: 2.980 - 21-DMA 

*RES 3: 2.955 - Low May 24 now resistance 

*RES 2: 2.922 - Low May 25 now resistance 

*RES 1: 2.903 - 55-DMA

*PRICE: 2.851 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.821 - Hourly support May 30 

*SUP 2: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a 

*SUP 3: 2.759 - Low May 29 

*SUP 4: 2.717 - Monthly Low Apr 2

*COMMENTARY: The break of the 21-WMA (2.845) & the bull channel base (2.867) off

2017 lows has lacked follow through with the close above the 100-DMA (2.842)

buying bulls breathing room. The 2.922 resistance is key today. Bulls need a

close above this level to hint at a move back to 2018 highs with above 3.014

needed to add further support. While 2.922 caps bears remain focused on Apr lows

but need a close below 2.821 to gain breathing room.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (N18) Targeting Correction Back to 21-DMA

*RES 4: $71.09 - Low May 18 now resistance 

*RES 3: $70.15 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $69.57 - Hourly resistance May 25 

*RES 1: $68.67 - High May 30

*PRICE: $68.05 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $68.03 - Hourly support May 30 

*SUP 2: $67.42 - Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 3: $66.35 - Low May 30 

*SUP 4: $65.80 - Low May 28

*COMMENTARY: Having found support on the dip below the bull channel base off Feb

lows bulls take comfort in the close above $67.42 that provides breathing room

and increases the risk of a correction back to the 21-DMA. Bulls now need a

close above $71.09 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and return initial focus to

2018 highs $72.90). Bears now need a close below $65.38 to pressure the 100-DMA

($64.64).

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 100-WMA

*RES 4: $1325.5 - 100-DMA 

*RES 3: $1320.1 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: $1310.5 - Low May 10 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1307.4 - 200-DMA

*PRICE: $1302.9 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1293.4 - Low May 29 

*SUP 2: $1287.4 - Low May 22 

*SUP 3: $1282.3 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: $1281.8 - 2018 Low May 21

*COMMENTARY: Attempts to rally remain capped by the 200-DMA despite daily

studies correcting their O/S condition. Bulls still need a close above $1310.5

to confirm breaks of 21 & 200-DMAs and shift initial focus to $1320.1-1325.5

where 55 & 100-DMAs & the 21-WMA are noted. Bears continue to look for a close

below the 100-WMA to target the 200-WMA ($1234.3).

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]