MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

14 June 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1708 & 55-WMA Levels Key

*RES 4: $1.1986 55-DMA

*RES 3: $1.1891 55-WMA

*RES 2: $1.1854 High May 16

*RES 1: $1.1820 High June 11

*PRICE: $1.1802 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1773 Hourly support June 13 

*SUP 2: $1.1723 Low June 13 

*SUP 3: $1.1708 Low June 6 

*SUP 4: $1.1616 Low June 1

*COMMENTARY: The pair continues to trade sideways in a $1.1723-1.1820 range with

daily studies at modestly O/B the key concern for bulls. The 21-DMA is noted at

$1.1725 with bears needing a close below $1.1708 to confirm a break and return

initial focus to $1.1506-1.1616 where 2018 lows are located. The $1.1820-91

resistance region remains key. Bulls need a close above the 55-WMA to shift

initial focus to $1.1985-1.2053 where the 55 & 200-DMAs are situated.

     CABLE TECHS: Supported Ahead Of $1.3292

*RES 4: $1.3528 High May 18 

*RES 3: $1.3491 Hourly resistance May 18, High May 22 

*RES 2: $1.3441 High June 11 

*RES 1: $1.3424 High June 12

*PRICE: $1.3388 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3355 Hourly support June 13 

*SUP 2: $1.3292 Low June 4 

*SUP 3: $1.3240 Low May 30 

*SUP 4: $1.3203 2018 Low May 29

*COMMENTARY: Failure to trouble the $1.3292 support on Wednesday's dip is less

than ideal for bears who continue to look for a close below $1.3203 to reconfirm

the bearish bias and focus on $1.2995-1.3071 where the 100-WMA is found. Layers

of resistance remain with bulls now needing a close above $1.3528 to shift

immediate focus to $1.3601-1.3711 where 55 & 200-DMAs are noted.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y109.84

*RES 4: Y111.49 High Jan 18 

*RES 3: Y111.39 High May 21 

*RES 2: Y111.18 High May 22 

*RES 1: Y110.84 High June 13

*PRICE: Y110.21 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.10 Hourly support June 12 

*SUP 2: Y109.84 Hourly resistance June 11 now support 

*SUP 3: Y109.01 Hourly support June 1 

*SUP 4: Y108.88 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Despite closes above the 200-DMA (Y110.21), the lack of follow

through on the break of Y110.72 has left the pair looking a little heavy.

Initial support remains at Y110.10 with bears needing a close below Y109.84 to

ease bullish pressure and below the 55-DMA to pressure Y107.85-108.09 where the

100-DMA is found. Bulls now need a close above Y110.84 to confirm traction above

the 200-DMA and return immediate focus to Y111.39-98.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Pressure Returns To 55-DMA

*RES 4: Y131.28 100-DMA

*RES 3: Y131.18 21-WMA

*RES 2: Y130.87 Daily bear channel top

*RES 1: Y130.49 55-DMA

*PRICE: Y130.07 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.48 Low June 12 

*SUP 2: Y129.26 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: Y128.49 Hourly support June 11 

*SUP 4: Y128.09 Low June 8

*COMMENTARY: O/B daily studies remain the key concern for bulls as the pair

continues to hesitate ahead of the 55-DMA and layers of resistance

Y130.49-132.59 where key DMAs, WMAs and the daily bear channel top are situated.

Bears need a close below Y129.26 to gain breathing room and below Y127.10 to

shift focus back to 2018 lows. Overall bulls need a close above Y132.59 to shift

initial focus back to Y134.12-136.00 where the LT TL off 2014 highs is noted.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Above 55-WMA To End Bearish Hopes

*RES 4: Gbp0.8967 2018 High Mar 7 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8859 55-WMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8826 200-DMA

*PRICE: Gbp0.8813 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8798 Hourly support June 13 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8756 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8720 Low June 5 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8694 Hourly support May 30

*COMMENTARY: Pressure returning to the 200-DMA is a concern for bears although

bulls still need a close above the 55-WMA to confirm traction above the channel

top, ending bearish hopes and targeting 2018 highs. The Bollinger top

(Gbp0.8825) is the key concern for bulls. Initial support is noted at Gbp0.8798

but bears look for a close below the 55-DMA to confirm an easing of bullish

pressure and below Gbp0.8694 to confirm a return in focus to tests of 2018 lows.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Supported Ahead Of Bull Channel Base

*RES 4: $0.7708 - 100-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7682 - High Apr 23

*RES 2: $0.7627 - High June 8

*RES 1: $0.7583 - Hourly resistance June 13

*PRICE: $0.7562 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7548 - Hourly support June 13 

*SUP 2: $0.7523 - Daily Bull channel base off 2018 low 

*SUP 3: $0.7513 - Low June 1 

*SUP 4: $0.7474 - Low May 30

*COMMENTARY: The dip back towards the bull channel base off 2018 lows lacked

follow through. Bears now need a close below $0.7513 to return focus to tests of

2018 lows. Correcting modestly O/B studies are less than ideal for bears. In

saying that, bulls still need a close above $0.7627 to gain breathing room and

above $0.7682 to pressure $0.7708-49 where 100 & 200-DMAs and 21 & 55-WMAs are

noted. Above the 200-DMA shifts focus to $0.7916 Mar highs.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Topside Follow Through Lacking

*RES 4: 94.695 - Hourly resistance May 30 

*RES 3: 94.450 - High June 1 

*RES 2: 94.028 - High June 13 

*RES 1: 93.714 - Hourly resistance June 13

*PRICE: 93.490 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 93.366 - Low June 11

*SUP 2: 93.213 - Low June 7

*SUP 3: 92.841 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 4: 92.223 - Low May 14

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on the break of 93.933 leaves

the index looking a little offered with focus back on the 93.213 support. Bears

now look for a close below this level to add weight to the case for a test of

92.035-223 where 55 & 200-DMAs are located. Bulls now need a close above 94.028

to gain breathing room and above 94.450 to initially focus on 2018 highs.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 3.014 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 3.084 - High May 21 

*RES 3: 3.050 - Low May 22 

*RES 2: 3.014 - High May 24 

*RES 1: 2.985 - Hourly resistance June 13

*PRICE: 2.957 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.944 - Low June 12 

*SUP 2: 2.921 - Hourly support June 8 

*SUP 3: 2.884 - Low June 7 

*SUP 4: 2.860 - Low June 1

*COMMENTARY: The 3.014 resistance reconfirmed significance with the yield capped

ahead of this level and looking a little offered. The 2.944 support is key today

with bears needing a close below to ease bullish pressure and return focus to

2.884. Below this level confirms a break of the 55-DMA (2.921) and sees bears

targeting 2.717-759 where Mar & May lows are noted. Bulls still need a close

above 3.014 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA (2.962) and target 2018 highs.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Q18) Above $68.52 Shifts Focus To $70.86

*RES 4: $70.86 - Low May 18 now resistance 

*RES 3: $68.52 - High May 30 

*RES 2: $67.96 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $67.23 - 55-DMA

*PRICE: $66.51 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $66.37 - Hourly support June 13 

*SUP 2: $65.42 - Low June 12 

*SUP 3: $64.81 - Daily Bull channel base off Feb 14 low 

*SUP 4: $64.15 - Low June 5

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the lack of follow through on dips below the

100-DMA ($64.58) with focus having returned to $67.23-68.52 where 21 & 55-DMAs

are noted. Bulls need a close above the 55-DMA to gain breathing room and above

$68.52 to shift focus to $70.86. Initial support is noted at $66.37 today with

bears needing a close below to gain breathing room. Below $64.15 is needed to

shift initial focus to $61.43.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Narrow Sideways Trading Persists

*RES 4: $1314.1 - 55-DMA 

*RES 3: $1310.5 - Low May 10 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1306.6 - 200-DMA 

*RES 1: $1303.8 - High June 7

*PRICE: $1299.3 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1292.1 - Low June 13 

*SUP 2: $1287.4 - Low May 22 

*SUP 3: $1281.8 - 2018 Low May 21 

*SUP 4: $1276.0 - 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Lacklustre trading continues with gold remaining capped ahead of

the 200-DMA. Narrowing Bollinger bands increase the risk of a break out in

coming days. Bulls need a close above $1310.5 to ease bearish pressure and shift

immediate focus to $1314.1-1326.6 where 55 & 100-DMAs are found. Bears need a

close below the 100-WMA to reconfirm a bearish bias and target $1233.4-1234.3

where the 200-WMA and LT TL off late Dec 2015 lows are noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]