MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

15 June 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Immediate Focus On 2018 Low

*RES 4: $1.1723 Low June 13 now resistance

*RES 3: $1.1704 21-DMA

*RES 2: $1.1660 Hourly resistance June 14

*RES 1: $1.1618 Hourly support June 14 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.1568 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1549 Hourly resistance May 30 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29 

*SUP 3: $1.1470 Low July 18 2017 

*SUP 4: $1.1414 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 55-WMA and the $$1.1854-91 resistance

region combined with O/B studies looking to correct has taken its toll with a

sharp sell-off that sees immediate focus back on 2018 lows. Bears continue to

look for a close below $1.1311 to confirm breaks of 100 ($1.1423) & 200-WMAs,

shifting immediate focus to $1.1117 June 2017 lows. Bulls now need a close above

$1.1660 to gain breathing room.

     CABLE TECHS: Below $1.3203 Initially Targets $1.2995-1.3070

*RES 4: $1.3446 High June 14 

*RES 3: $1.3414 Hourly support June 14 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.3350 Hourly resistance June 14 

*RES 1: $1.3292 Low June 4 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.3246 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3240 Low May 30 

*SUP 2: $1.3203 2018 Low May 29 

*SUP 3: $1.3070 100-WMA 

*SUP 4: $1.2995 High Sept 1 now support

*COMMENTARY: Topside follow through has been lacking the past two weeks with the

sharp sell-off Thursday returning immediate focus to 2018 lows. Bears now look

for a close below $1.3203 to initially target $1.2995-1.3070 where the 100-WMA

is located. Daily studies are well placed for losses but the Bollinger base

($1.3230) may limit follow through. Bulls need a close above $1.3292 to gain

breathing room and above $1.3350 to return focus to $1.3446-3528.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y109.84

*RES 4: Y111.49 High Jan 18 

*RES 3: Y111.39 High May 21 

*RES 2: Y111.18 High May 22 

*RES 1: Y110.84 High June 13

*PRICE: Y110.74 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.24 Hourly support June 14 

*SUP 2: Y109.84 Hourly resistance June 11 now support 

*SUP 3: Y109.01 Hourly support June 1 

*SUP 4: Y108.97 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in close above the 200-DMA (Y110.23) but now

need a close above Y110.84 to confirm traction above the 200-DMA and return

immediate focus to Y111.39-98. Initial support is noted at Y110.24 with bears

still needing a close below Y109.84 to ease bullish pressure and below the

55-DMA to pressure Y107.85-108.11 where the 100-DMA is found. Daily studies at

O/B levels is less than ideal for bulls.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y127.10 Support Now Key

*RES 4: Y129.65 Hourly support June 13 now resistance

*RES 3: Y129.26 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 2: Y128.64 Hourly resistance June 14

*RES 1: Y128.62 21-DMA

*PRICE: Y128.07 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y127.56 Low June 4 

*SUP 2: Y127.10 Low June 1 

*SUP 3: Y126.22 Hourly support May 30 

*SUP 4: Y124.61 2018 Low May 29

*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation ahead of the 55-DMA (Y130.39) and

Y130.39-132.59 where key DMAs, WMAs and the daily bear channel top are situated

combined with very O/B studies looking to correct has provided the impetus for a

sharp sell-off that shifts overall focus back to 2018 lows. Bears now need a

close below Y127.10 to add weight to their case. Bulls now need a close above

the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and above 129.65 to pressure the 55-DMA.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Gbp0.8694

*RES 4: Gbp0.8859 55-WMA 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8824 200-DMA 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8789 Hourly support June 14 now resistance 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8754 Hourly resistance June 14

*PRICE: Gbp0.8728 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8719 Low June 14 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8707 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8694 Hourly support May 30 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8678 Low Apr 26

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation at the 200-DMA and ahead of the 55-WMA has taken its

toll with a sharp sell-off and bearish close Thursday that adds weight to the

case for a move back to Gbp0.8618. Bears now look for a close below Gbp0.8694 to

confirm focus on 2018 lows. Layers of resistance are following the pair lower

with bulls now needing a close above Gbp0.8754 to gain breathing room and above

Gbp0.8789 to pressure the 200-DMA once more.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.7527

*RES 4: $0.7682 - High Apr 23

*RES 3: $0.7627 - High June 8

*RES 2: $0.7583 - Hourly resistance June 13

*RES 1: $0.7527 - Low June 13 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7461 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7445 - Low May 15 

*SUP 2: $0.7410 - 2018 Low May 9 

*SUP 3: $0.7368 - Monthly Low June 1 2017 

*SUP 4: $0.7326 - Monthly Low May 9 2017

*COMMENTARY: Topside failures ahead of $0.7627 have left the pair looking heavy

this week and provided the catalyst for a sharp sell-off that sees bears focused

on 2018 lows once more and then the $0.7368 June 2017 low. Layers of resistance

have been left in the wake with bulls now needing a close above $0.7527 to gain

breathing room and above $0.7627 to shift initial focus back to layers of

resistance $0.7682-0.7738 where 100 & 200-DMAs are noted.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Pressuring 200-WMA

*RES 4: 95.464 - Low July 13 now resistance 

*RES 3: 95.167 - Monthly High Oct 27 

*RES 2: 95.025 - 2018 High May 29 

*RES 1: 94.980 - 200-WMA

*PRICE: 94.975 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 94.587 - Hourly resistance June 14 now support

*SUP 2: 94.028 - High June 13 now support

*SUP 3: 93.193 - Low June 14

*SUP 4: 92.841 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: Bulls have regained the upper hand with an aggressive rally that

sees immediate pressure on 94.980-95.167 where the 200-WMA and 2018 highs are

located. Bulls look for a close above 95.167 to initially target 96.512 weekly

highs from July 2017. Bears now look for a close below 94.587 to gain breathing

room and below 94.028 to shift focus back to 92.841-93.193.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Focus Returns To 2.884 Support

*RES 4: 3.050 - Low May 22 

*RES 3: 3.014 - High May 24 

*RES 2: 2.985 - Hourly resistance June 13 

*RES 1: 2.965 - Hourly support June 13 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.928 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.884 - Low June 7 

*SUP 2: 2.860 - Low June 1 

*SUP 3: 2.821 - Hourly support May 30 

*SUP 4: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a

*COMMENTARY: The 3.014 resistance reconfirmed significance with the yield capped

ahead of this level and remaining offered. The close below 2.944 confirms an

easing of bullish pressure and returns focus to 2.884. Below this level confirms

a break of the 55-DMA (2.924) and sees bears targeting 2.717-759 where Mar & May

lows are noted. Bulls still need a close above 3.014 to confirm a break of the

21-DMA (2.953) and target 2018 highs.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Q18) $68.52 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: $70.86 - Low May 18 now resistance 

*RES 3: $68.52 - High May 30 

*RES 2: $67.75 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $67.29 - 55-DMA

*PRICE: $66.74 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $66.18 - Low June 14 

*SUP 2: $65.42 - Low June 12 

*SUP 3: $64.91 - Daily Bull channel base off Feb 14 low 

*SUP 4: $64.15 - Low June 5

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in the lack of follow through on dips below the

100-DMA ($64.62) with focus having returned to $67.29-68.52 where 21 & 55-DMAs

are noted. Bulls need a close above the 55-DMA to gain breathing room and above

$68.52 to shift focus to $70.86. Initial support is noted at $66.18 today with

bears needing a close below to gain breathing room. Below $64.15 is needed to

shift initial focus to $61.43.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Lacks Follow Through Above 200-DMA

*RES 4: $1321.1 - 100-DMA 

*RES 3: $1313.8 - 55-DMA 

*RES 2: $1310.5 - Low May 10 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1305.2 - Hourly resistance June 14

*PRICE: $1301.5 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1292.1 - Low June 13 

*SUP 2: $1287.4 - Low May 22 

*SUP 3: $1281.8 - 2018 Low May 21 

*SUP 4: $1276.0 - 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The $1310.5 resistance reconfirmed significance with the pop above

the 200-DMA ($1306.5) lacking follow through. Bulls need a close above $1310.5

to ease bearish pressure and shift immediate focus to $1313.8-1326.6 where 55 &

100-DMAs are found. Bears need a close below the 100-WMA to reconfirm a bearish

bias and target $1233.4-1234.3 where the 200-WMA and LT TL off late Dec 2015

lows are noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]