MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

22 June 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Double Daily Bottom In Play

*RES 4: $1.1820 High June 11

*RES 3: $1.1723 Low June 13 now resistance

*RES 2: $1.1669 21-DMA

*RES 1: $1.1660 Hourly resistance June 14

*PRICE: $1.1610 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1574 Hourly support June 21 

*SUP 2: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29 

*SUP 3: $1.1470 Low July 18 2017 

*SUP 4: $1.1406 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The dip Thursday leaves a double daily bottom in place around the

2018 low with the Bollinger base ($1.1509) remaining a concern for bears. Bears

need a close below 2018 lows to shift immediate focus to $1.1311 although 100

($1.1429) & 200 ($1.1406) may support along the way. Bulls continue to look for

a close above $1.1660 to gain breathing room and above $1.1723 to shift focus

back to $1.1854-94.

     CABLE TECHS: Bullish Key Day Reversal

*RES 4: $1.3414 Hourly support June 14 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.3350 Hourly resistance June 14 

*RES 2: $1.3310 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $1.3297 High June 15

*PRICE: $1.3261 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3227 Hourly resistance June 21 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.3124 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: $1.3099 2018 Low June 21 

*SUP 4: $1.3072 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Despite fresh 2018 & 8mth lows the lack of follow through resulted

in a bullish key day reversal. Bulls take comfort in support emerging ahead of

the 100-WMA and key $1.2995-1.3072 support region. Bulls now look for a close

above the 21-DMA to shift initial focus back to $1.3446-1.3528. Bears now need a

close below $1.3227 to gain breathing room and below $1.2995 to initially target

$1.2770 Aug lows. Correcting O/S studies are a concern for bears.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y109.01 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Y111.39 High May 21 

*RES 3: Y111.18 High May 22 

*RES 2: Y110.90 High June 15 

*RES 1: Y110.31 Hourly support June 21 now resistance

*PRICE: Y109.96 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.84 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y109.53 Low June 19 

*SUP 3: Y109.29 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y109.01 Hourly support June 1

*COMMENTARY: The pair remains capped ahead of Y110.90 again having failed to

gain traction above the 200-DMA (Y110.23). Bulls need a close above Y110.90 to

confirm traction and shift initial focus to Y111.39-98. Bears need a close below

Y109.01 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and initially pressure Y107.85-108.15

where the 100-DMA is found with below Y107.85 to shift focus back to 2018 lows.

Daily studies correcting from O/B is less than ideal for bulls.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Above Y128.64 to Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: Y129.65 Hourly support June 13 now resistance

*RES 3: Y129.26 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 2: Y128.64 Hourly resistance June 14

*RES 1: Y128.01 Hourly resistance June 20

*PRICE: Y127.67 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y126.98 Low June 21 

*SUP 2: Y126.63 Low June 19 

*SUP 3: Y126.22 Hourly support May 30 

*SUP 4: Y124.61 2018 Low May 29

*COMMENTARY: Despite an aggressive sell-off early this week downside follow

through has been lacking. Bears remain focused on the Y126.22 support with a

close below needed to add weight to the case for a test of 2018 lows and a

potential move back to the bull channel base (Y122.89). Bulls continue to look

for a close above Y128.64 to gain breathing room and above 129.65 to pressure

the 55-DMA once again.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Above 55-WMA To End Bearish Hopes

*RES 4: Gbp0.8858 55-WMA 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8819 200-DMA 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8801 High June 20 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8771 Hourly resistance June 21

*PRICE: Gbp0.8753 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8715 Low June 15 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8694 Hourly support May 30 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8678 Low Apr 26 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8664 Hourly breakout level Apr 18

*COMMENTARY: Bulls have failed to capitalise on bounces this week with the pair

remaining capped ahead of the falling TL off 2018 highs and the 200-DMA with the

55-WMA lurking just above. Bulls look for a close above the 55-WMA to shift

initial focus back to Gbp0.8967-0.9107. Bears now need a close below Gbp0.8694

to confirm focus on tests of 2018 lows and then Gbp0.8531 on a break lower.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.7430

*RES 4: $0.7527 - Low June 13 now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7481 - High June 15

*RES 2: $0.7456 - High June 18

*RES 1: $0.7430 - Hourly support June 18 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7394 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7342 - 2018 Low June 21 

*SUP 2: $0.7326 - Monthly Low May 9 2017 

*SUP 3: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017 

*SUP 4: $0.7246 - High Dec 30 now support

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from ahead of $0.7682 continues to result in fresh

2018 & 12month lows adding weight to the case for a test of $0.7326 May 2017

lows. Layers of resistance have been left in the wake with bulls needing a close

above $0.7430 to gain breathing room and above $0.7481 to shift initial focus

back to $0.7527-0.7327 where 21 ($0.7527) & 55 ($0.7569) DMAs are noted. Bears

now need a close below $0.7326 to target $0.7160 2017 lows.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bearish Key Day Reversal

*RES 4: 95.573 - 100-WMA 

*RES 3: 95.529 - 2018 High June 21 

*RES 2: 95.372 - Hourly resistance June 21a 

*RES 1: 95.040 - Hourly resistance June 21

*PRICE: 94.790 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 94.678 - Low June 21

*SUP 2: 94.534 - Low June 19

*SUP 3: 94.256 - 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 94.028 - High June 13 now support

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on pops above the 200-WMA

(95.042) continues with the rejection around the 100-WMA resulting in a bearish

key day reversal and leaving the index looking offered. Bears continue to look

for a close below 94.028 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift initial

focus back to 93.193. Bulls now need a close above 95.040 to gain breathing room

and above the 100-WMA to initially target 96.617.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.853 Support Key Today

*RES 4: 2.985 - Hourly resistance June 13 

*RES 3: 2.965 - Hourly support June 13 now resistance 

*RES 2: 2.950 - High June 21 

*RES 1: 2.935 - Hourly resistance June 21

*PRICE: 2.913 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.884 - Hourly support June 19 

*SUP 2: 2.853 - Low June 19 

*SUP 3: 2.821 - Hourly support May 30 

*SUP 4: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a

*COMMENTARY: Bulls have failed to trouble key layers of resistance and in

particular 3.014 with the yield again looking offered. The 2.853 support is now

key. Bears need a close below this level to reconfirm a bearish bias and

initially target 2.717-759 where Mar & May lows are noted. Bulls now need a

close above 2.950 to gain breathing room and above 3.014 to end bearish hopes

and initially target 2018 highs.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Q18) $63.36 & $68.52 Levels Remain Key

*RES 4: $72.70 - Monthly High May 22 

*RES 3: $70.86 - Low May 18 now resistance 

*RES 2: $68.52 - High May 30 

*RES 1: $67.50 - 55-DMA

*PRICE: $66.50 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $65.19 - Hourly resistance June 21 now support 

*SUP 2: $64.79 - Low June 20 

*SUP 3: $64.23 - Low June 19 

*SUP 4: $63.98 - Low June 18

*COMMENTARY: Volatile trading continues with oil remaining capped ahead of

layers of resistance. The $67.50-68.52 resistance region where the 55-DMA is

located remains key. Bulls need a close above $68.52 to end bearish hopes and

shift initial focus back to $70.86-72.70. Bears now need a close below $65.19 to

gain breathing room and below $63.36 confirm a break of the bull channel base

and to reconfirm the bearish bias initially pressuring $61.43.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Look For Weekly Close Below 100-WMA

*RES 4: $1286.2 - Hourly resistance June 15 

*RES 3: $1284.1 - High June 19 

*RES 2: $1275.3 - 100-WMA 

*RES 1: $1270.0 - Low June 19 now resistance

*PRICE: $1268.5 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1258.9 - Low Dec 19 

*SUP 2: $1249.9 - Low Dec 14 

*SUP 3: $1234.1 - 200-WMA, LT Rising TL off 2015 Low 

*SUP 4: $1214.0 - Low July 12

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 7mth lows continue with bears now looking for a weekly

close below the 100-WMA to add significant weight to the case for a test of the

200-WMA and LT rising TL of 2015 lows. The lack of follow through Thursday is a

concern for bears with the Bollinger base ($1266.3) proving problematic. Bulls

now need a close above $1270.0 to gain breathing room and above $1292.1 to

return pressure to $1303.1-1310.5.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]