MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

27 June 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Key Resistance Region Capping

*RES 4: $1.1820 High June 11

*RES 3: $1.1723 Low June 13 now resistance

*RES 2: $1.1719 Daily Bear Channel top off Apr 19 high

*RES 1: $1.1685 Hourly resistance June 26

*PRICE: $1.1658 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1625 Low June 25 

*SUP 2: $1.1598 Low June 22 

*SUP 3: $1.1574 Hourly support June 21 

*SUP 4: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's low has stalled around the daily bear

channel top and key $1.1723 resistance. Bulls now need a close above $1.1723 to

confirm an easing of bearish pressure and to shift immediate focus to

$1.1854-1.1903 where the 55 DMA & WMA are noted. Bears continue to look for a

close below 2018 lows to shift immediate focus to $1.1311 although 100 ($1.1435)

& 200 ($1.1399) WMAs may support along the way.

     CABLE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1.3314

*RES 4: $1.3414 Hourly support June 14 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1.3350 Hourly resistance June 14 

*RES 2: $1.3314 High June 22 

*RES 1: $1.3255 Hourly resistance June 26

*PRICE: $1.3229 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3212 Hourly support June 26 

*SUP 2: $1.3187 Low June 26 

*SUP 3: $1.3099 2018 Low June 21 

*SUP 4: $1.3072 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows has stalled at the 21-DMA and looks a

little offered once again. Bulls continue to look for a close above $1.3314 to

confirm breaks of the 21-DMA and bear channel top, shifting initial focus back

to $1.3446-1.3528. Bears focus on $1.2995-1.3072 while $1.3314 caps with bears

needing a close below $1.2995 to initially target $1.2770 Aug lows.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y109.01 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Y111.18 High May 22 

*RES 3: Y110.90 High June 15 

*RES 2: Y110.31 Hourly support June 21 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y110.20 200-DMA

*PRICE: Y109.88 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.45 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y109.01 Hourly support June 1 

*SUP 3: Y108.70 Low June 1 

*SUP 4: Y108.17 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The pair remains capped ahead of Y110.90 having remained capped by

the 200-DMA (Y110.20) Tuesday. Bulls need a close above Y110.90 to confirm

traction and shift initial focus to Y111.39-98. Bears still need a close below

Y109.01 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA (Y109.45) and Bull channel base,

initially pressuring Y107.85-108.17 where the 100-DMA is found with below

Y107.85 to shift focus back to 2018 lows.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y128.81

*RES 4: Y129.65 Hourly support June 13 now resistance

*RES 3: Y129.26 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 2: Y128.81 High June 25

*RES 1: Y128.54 Hourly resistance June 25

*PRICE: Y128.11 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y127.77 Low June 26 

*SUP 2: Y127.50 Daily Bull channel base off 2018 low 

*SUP 3: Y126.98 Low June 21 

*SUP 4: Y126.63 Low June 19

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging on dips back towards the

bull channel base. In saying that, bulls continue to look for a close above

Y128.81 to gain breathing room and above Y129.65 to pressure the 55-DMA

(Y129.92) once again. Correcting O/S studies are a concern for bears who now

need a close below Y127.77 to retain focus on Y126.22 and the close below needed

to add weight to the case for a test of 2018 lows (Y124.61).

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Above 55-WMA To End Bearish Hopes

*RES 4: Gbp0.8967 2018 High Mar 7 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8859 55-WMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8819 200-DMA

*PRICE: Gbp0.8812 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8796 Low June 26 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8779 Low June 25 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8748 Low June 22 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8715 Low June 15

*COMMENTARY: Pressure has returned to the Gbp0.8819 -59 resistance region where

the 200-DMA and 55-WMA are located. Bulls look for a close above the 55-WMA to

end bearish hopes and shift initial focus back to Gbp0.8967-0.9107. Bears now

need a close below Gbp0.8779 to gain breathing room and below Gbp0.8694 to

confirm focus on tests of 2018 lows and then Gbp0.8531 on a break lower.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Correcting O/S Studies Key Concern For Bears

*RES 4: $0.7552 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7510 - 21-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7481 - High June 15

*RES 1: $0.7443 - Highs June 25 & 26

*PRICE: $0.7379 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7342 - 2018 Low June 21 

*SUP 2: $0.7326 - Monthly Low May 9 2017 

*SUP 3: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017 

*SUP 4: $0.7246 - High Dec 30 now support

*COMMENTARY: Correcting O/S daily studies remain the key concern for bears who

now need a close below $0.7326 to shift focus to $0.7150-60 where 2017 lows are

noted. Initial resistance is now noted at $0.7443 where the recovery appears to

have stalled for now, but bulls look for a close above $0.7481 to shift initial

focus back to $0.7552-0.7627 where the 55 ($0.7552) DMA is located. Above the

55-DMA then initially targets $0.7627-0.7735.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 100-WMA

*RES 4: 95.529 - 2018 High June 21 

*RES 3: 95.372 - Hourly resistance June 21a 

*RES 2: 95.040 - Hourly resistance June 21 

*RES 1: 94.880 - High June 22

*PRICE: 94.598 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 94.415 - Hourly support June 26

*SUP 2: 93.171 - Low June 26

*SUP 3: 94.028 - High June 13 now support

*SUP 4: 93.193 - Low June 14

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on a dip below the 21-DMA (94.251) has seen the

index bounce back towards layers of resistance. Bulls now look for a close above

94.880 to return immediate focus to the 100-WMA (95.562). A close above the

100-WMA remains needed to target 96.617. 94.028 remains key support. Bears look

for a close below 94.028 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA (94.251) and shift

initial focus to 93.193.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.853 Support Key This Week

*RES 4: 2.965 - Hourly support June 13 now resistance 

*RES 3: 2.950 - High June 21 

*RES 2: 2.935 - Hourly resistance June 21 

*RES 1: 2.900 - High June 26

*PRICE: 2.882 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.853 - Low June 19 

*SUP 2: 2.821 - Hourly support May 30 

*SUP 3: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a 

*SUP 4: 2.759 - Low May 29

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to trouble key layers of resistance in recent weeks

and in particular 3.014 with the yield offered. The 2.853 support remains key.

Bears need a close below this level to reconfirm a bearish bias and initially

target 2.717-759 where Mar & May lows are noted. Bulls now need a close above

2.950 to gain breathing room and above 3.014 to end bearish hopes and initially

target 2018 highs.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Q18) Below $69.44 To Gain Breathing Room

*RES 4: $79.85 - High Nov 10 2014 

*RES 3: $77.83 - High Nov 21 2014 

*RES 2: $73.25 - Low Nov 14 2014 now resistance 

*RES 1: $72.70 - Monthly High May 22

*PRICE: $70.88 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $70.02 - Hourly support June 26 

*SUP 2: $69.44 - High June 25 now support 

*SUP 3: $68.88 - Hourly resistance June 26 now support 

*SUP 4: $67.72 - Low June 26

*COMMENTARY: Support around the 55-DMA ($67.90) provided the base for an

aggressive rally and bullish close that sees immediate focus on $72.70-73.25.

Bulls need a close above $73.25 to shift focus to $77.83-79.85 levels last seen

in Nov 2014. Support layers building add to bullish confidence with a close

below $69.44 to ease bullish pressure and below $67.72 to hint at a move back to

$63.40-67 with below the 21-DMA ($66.54) to confirm.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Focused On 200-WMA

*RES 4: $1284.1 - High June 19 

*RES 3: $1274.4 - 100-WMA 

*RES 2: $1272.5 - High June 25 

*RES 1: $1262.7 - Hourly support June 26 now resistance

*PRICE: $1255.8 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1249.9 - Low Dec 14 

*SUP 2: $1237.6 - LT Rising TL off 2015 Low 

*SUP 3: $1235.9 - Monthly low Dec 12 

*SUP 4: $1233.9 - 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 7mth lows add weight to the bearish case targeting

tests of the 200-WMA and LT rising TL of 2015 lows around $1237.6. The Bollinger

base ($1253.9) and O/S daily studies looking to correct are noted as key concern

for bears. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 100-WMA to gain

breathing room and above $1292.1 to return pressure to $1303.1-1310.5.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]