MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

28 June 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Pressure Returns To 2018 Low

*RES 4: $1.1705 Daily Bear Channel top off Apr 19 high

*RES 3: $1.1671 21-DMA

*RES 2: $1.1644 Hourly resistance June 27

*RES 1: $1.1598 Low June 22 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.1565 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1510 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29 

*SUP 3: $1.1470 Low July 18 2017 

*SUP 4: $1.1434 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The failure around the 21-DMA and bear channel top has seen

pressure return to the 2018 low ($1.1506). Bears look for a close below $1.1506

to shift immediate focus to $1.1311 although 100 ($1.1434) & 200 ($1.1399) WMAs

may support along the way. Layers of resistance are accumulating and weighing.

Bulls now need a close above $1.1598 to gain breathing room and above $1.1723 to

target $1.1854-1.1901.

     CABLE TECHS: Above $1.3190 To Gain Breathing Room

*RES 4: $1.3290 21-DMA 

*RES 3: $1.3190 Low June 26 now resistance 

*RES 2: $1.3166 Hourly support June 27a now resistance 

*RES 1: $1.3124 Hourly support June 27 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.3113 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3099 2018 Low June 21 

*SUP 2: $1.3071 100-WMA 

*SUP 3: $1.2995 High Sept 1 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.2849 Low Aug 31

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows has stalled at the 21-DMA with the

resulting sell-off seeing pressure back on 2018 lows. Overall focus remains on

the $1.2995-1.3072 with bears needing a close below $1.2995 to initially target

$1.2770 Aug lows. The Bollinger base ($1.3104) remains the key concern for

bears. Bulls now need a close above $1.3190 to gain breathing room and above

$1.3314 to shift initial focus back to $1.3446-1.3528.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y109.01 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: Y111.39 High May 21 

*RES 3: Y111.18 High May 22 

*RES 2: Y110.90 High June 15 

*RES 1: Y110.48 High June 27

*PRICE: Y110.21 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.50 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y109.01 Hourly support June 1 

*SUP 3: Y108.70 Low June 1 

*SUP 4: Y108.19 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The pair remains capped ahead of Y110.90 following the bounces from

around the 55-DMA this week. Bulls need a close above Y110.90 to confirm

traction above the 200-DMA (Y110.19) and shift initial focus to Y111.39-98.

Bears still need a close below Y109.01 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA

(Y109.50) and Bull channel base, initially pressuring Y107.85-108.19 where the

100-DMA is found with below Y107.85 to shift focus back to 2018 lows.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Focus On Y126.22-98 Today

*RES 4: Y129.26 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 3: Y128.81 High June 25

*RES 2: Y128.54 Hourly resistance June 25

*RES 1: Y127.56 Hourly support June 26 now resistance

*PRICE: Y127.47 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y126.98 Low June 21 

*SUP 2: Y126.63 Low June 19 

*SUP 3: Y126.22 Hourly support May 30 

*SUP 4: Y124.61 2018 Low May 29

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation at Y128.81 sees the pair trading below the bull channel

base (Y127.78) off 2018 lows with immediate focus on Y126.22-98 today. Bears

need a close below Y126.22 to confirm immediate focus on tests of 2018 lows. O/S

daily studies and the Bollinger base (Y126.71) are concerns for bears. The

Y128.81 resistance remains key with bulls needing a close above to ease bearish

pressure and above Y129.65 to pressure layers of resistance Y129.82-131.37.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Above 55-WMA To End Bearish Hopes 

*RES 4: Gbp0.8967 2018 High Mar 7 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8859 55-WMA 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8834 Bollinger band top

*PRICE: Gbp0.8812 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8721 Low June 27 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8779 Low June 25 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8748 Low June 22 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8715 Low June 15

*COMMENTARY: Pressure has returned to the Gbp0.8819 -59 resistance region where

the 200-DMA and 55-WMA are located. Bulls look for a close above the 55-WMA to

end bearish hopes and shift initial focus back to Gbp0.8967-0.9107. Bears now

need a close below Gbp0.8779 to gain breathing room and below Gbp0.8694 to

confirm focus on tests of 2018 lows and then Gbp0.8531 on a break lower.

     AUSSIE TECHS: Focus Shifts To Dec 2016 Low

*RES 4: $0.7481 - High June 15

*RES 3: $0.7443 - Highs June 25 & 26

*RES 2: $0.7407 - High June 27

*RES 1: $0.7378 - Low June 26 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7359 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7323 - 2018 Low June 27 

*SUP 2: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017 

*SUP 3: $0.7246 - High Dec 30 2016 now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7152 - Monthly Low Dec 26 2016

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 18mth lows see bears shift focus to the $0.7152 Dec

2016 monthly low although the weekly bear channel base ($0.7234) may slow the

move. O/S daily studies and the Bollinger base ($0.7281) are key concerns for

bears. Bulls now need a close above $0.7443 to gain breathing room and above

$0.7481 to shift initial focus back to $0.7544-0.7627 where the 55 ($0.7544) DMA

is located. Above the 55-DMA then initially targets $0.7627-0.7735.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 100-WMA

*RES 4: 96.617 - High June 28 2017 

*RES 3: 95.568 - 100-WMA 

*RES 2: 95.529 - 2018 High June 21 

*RES 1: 95.512 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: 95.225 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 94.951 - Hourly support June 27

*SUP 2: 94.415 - Hourly support June 26

*SUP 3: 93.171 - Low June 26

*SUP 4: 94.028 - High June 13 now support

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on a dip below the 21-DMA (94.333) has seen the

index bounce back towards 2018 highs. Bulls continue to look for a close above

the 100-WMA (95.567) to target 96.617. Layers of support building add to bullish

confidence. Bears now need a close below 94.951 to gain breathing room and below

94.028 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA (94.282) and shift initial focus to

93.193.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Now Targeting 2.717-759

*RES 4: 2.950 - High June 21 

*RES 3: 2.935 - Hourly resistance June 21 

*RES 2: 2.900 - High June 26 

*RES 1: 2.873 - Hourly resistance June 27

*PRICE: 2.837 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.821 - Hourly support May 30 

*SUP 2: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a 

*SUP 3: 2.759 - Low May 29 

*SUP 4: 2.717 - Monthly Low Apr 2

*COMMENTARY: Topside failures around 2.950 saw pressure return to the 2.853

support resulting in a close below Wednesday that now sees focus back on

2.717-759 where Apr & May lows are noted. The Bollinger base (2.824) is the key

concern for bears and currently supports. Bulls now need a close above 2.873 to

gain breathing room and above 2.950 to pressure the key 3.014-050 region.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Q18) Bears Need Close Below $71.40

*RES 4: $79.85 - High Nov 10 2014 

*RES 3: $77.83 - High Nov 21 2014 

*RES 2: $73.25 - Low Nov 14 2014 now resistance 

*RES 1: $73.06 - High June 27

*PRICE: $72.55 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $72.18 - Hourly support June 27 

*SUP 2: $71.40 - Hourly resistance June 27 now support 

*SUP 3: $70.02 - Hourly support June 26 

*SUP 4: $69.44 - High June 25 now support

*COMMENTARY: Support around the 55-DMA ($68.06) provided the base for an

aggressive rally and bullish close that probed the $72.70-73.25 region

Wednesday. Bulls need a close above $73.25 to shift focus to $77.83-79.85 levels

last seen in Nov 2014. Initial support is noted at $71.40 with bears needing a

close below to gain breathing room and below $69.44 to shift initial focus back

to the 55-DMA ($68.06).

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Focused On 200-WMA

*RES 4: $1284.1 - High June 19 

*RES 3: $1274.3 - 100-WMA 

*RES 2: $1272.5 - High June 25 

*RES 1: $1262.7 - Hourly support June 26 now resistance

*PRICE: $1253.8 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1249.9 - Low Dec 14 

*SUP 2: $1237.6 - LT Rising TL off 2015 Low 

*SUP 3: $1235.9 - Monthly low Dec 12 

*SUP 4: $1233.9 - 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 7mth lows add weight to the bearish case targeting

tests of the 200-WMA and LT rising TL of 2015 lows around $1237.6. The Bollinger

base ($1249.1) and O/S daily studies looking to correct are noted as key concern

for bears. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 100-WMA to gain

breathing room and above $1292.1 to return pressure to $1303.1-1310.5.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]