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AUSSIE BONDS

Eyes On The RBA

16 July 2018
By Kyle Shortland
     
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Focused On $1.1506-89
*RES 4: $1.1820 High June 11
*RES 3: $1.1790 High July 9
*RES 2: $1.1765 Hourly resistance July 9
*RES 1: $1.1695 High July 12
*PRICE: $1.1683 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1649 Alternating hourly support/resistance 
*SUP 2: $1.1610 Low July 13 
*SUP 3: $1.1589 Low July 2 
*SUP 4: $1.1544 Bollinger band base
*COMMENTARY: Follow through above the 55-DMA ($1.1733) was lacking last week and
resulted in a dip back towards the $1.1589 support. Bears now need a close below
this level to initially pressure 2018 lows. Below $1.1311 remains needed to
confirm breaks of 100 ($1.1451) & 200 ($1.1381) WMAs and target $1.0819. Bulls
now need a close above $1.1790 to confirm traction above the 55-DMA and above
the 55-WMA ($1.1927) to shift initial focus to $1.1983-1.2053 where 100
($1.1988) & 200 ($1.1983) DMAs are found.
     CABLE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.3195
*RES 4: $1.3362 High July 9 
*RES 3: $1.3345 55-DMA 
*RES 2: $1.3300 High July 10 
*RES 1: $1.3244 High July 12
*PRICE: $1.3237 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3195 Hourly support July 13 
*SUP 2: $1.3144 Hourly resistance July 13 now support 
*SUP 3: $1.3092 Low July 2 
*SUP 4: $1.3079 100-WMA
*COMMENTARY: The close above $1.3190 buys bulls breathing room but the $1.3362
resistance remains key. A close above $1.3362 remains needed to shift initial
focus to the 55-WMA ($1.3460). The recovery from ahead of the $1.3092 support is
a concern for bears who are focused on $1.2995-1.3048 where 2018 lows are noted.
Bears now need a close below $1.3195 to ease pressure on resistance layers and
below $1.2995 to target $1.2587 June 2017 lows.
     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y111.86 Support Key Today
*RES 4: Y113.74 Monthly High Dec 12 
*RES 3: Y113.38 2018 High Jan 8 
*RES 2: Y113.24 200-WMA 
*RES 1: Y112.87 Low Jan 8 now resistance
*PRICE: Y112.46 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y112.17 High July 11 now support 
*SUP 2: Y111.86 Hourly support July 11 
*SUP 3: Y111.39 Monthly High May 21 now support 
*SUP 4: Y110.75 Low July 11
*COMMENTARY: Support around the 21 & 200-DMAs provided the base for continued
fresh 7mth highs with initial bullish focus on the Y113.24-74 region where the
200-WMA, 2018 & Dec highs are located. O/B daily studies and the Bollinger top
(Y112.44) are the key concern for bulls with potential to limit follow through.
Bears now need a close below Y111.86 to ease bullish pressure and below Y111.35
to shift focus back to Y109.95-110.78 where key DMAs and the bull channel base
off 2018 lows are noted.
     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 200-DMA
*RES 4: Y132.59 Low Apr 24
*RES 3: Y131.92 200-DMA
*RES 2: Y131.70 Bollinger band top
*RES 1: Y131.55 55-WMA
*PRICE: Y131.40 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y131.06 Hourly support July 13 
*SUP 2: Y130.64 Low July 12 
*SUP 3: Y130.35 Hourly support July 11 
*SUP 4: Y129.83 Hourly support July 9
*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through and aggressive reversal following the
pop above the 55-WMA is less than ideal for bulls when combined with very O/B
daily studies looking to correct. Bears now look for a close below Y130.64 to
gain breathing room and below Y129.83 to hint at a move back to Y128.40 with
below the 55-DMA (Y129.28) to confirm. Overall bulls look for a close above the
200-DMA to target Y133.48-135.62 where the LT TL off 2014 highs is noted.
     EURO-STERLING TECHS: 21 & 200-DMAs Pressured 
*RES 4: Gbp0.8967 2018 High Mar 7 
*RES 3: Gbp0.8904 Low Mar 8 now resistance 
*RES 2: Gbp0.8876 Hourly support July 9 now resistance 
*RES 1: Gbp0.8838 Hourly resistance July 16
*PRICE: Gbp0.8826 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8819 200-DMA, 21-DMA 
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8779 Low June 25 
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8748 Low June 28 
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8715 Low June 15
*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA continues to support and provided the base for a rally
that stalled just short of the Gbp0.8904 resistance Monday. Bulls need a close
above Gbp0.8904 to shift immediate focus to Gbp0.8967 2018 highs. The Bollinger
top is noted at Gbp0.8874 and recently limited follow through. The Gbp0.8779
support remains key. Below Gbp0.8779 is needed to confirm breaks of 55
(Gbp0.8791) & 100 (Gbp0.8785), shifting focus back to Gbp0.8669-0.8715.
     AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 55-DMA
*RES 4: $0.7527 - Low June 13 now resistance
*RES 3: $0.7488 - 55-DMA
*RES 2: $0.7484 - High July 10
*RES 1: $0.7459 - Hourly support July 10 now resistance
*PRICE: $0.7422 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7397 - 21-DMA 
*SUP 2: $0.7357 - Low July 12 
*SUP 3: $0.7328 - Bollinger band base 
*SUP 4: $0.7308 - 2018 Low July 2
*COMMENTARY: Bears continue to look for a close below $0.7308 to shift focus to
tests of $0.7142 2017 lows. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower.
Layers of resistance have followed the pair lower and add to bearish confidence.
Bulls now need a close above $0.7459 to gain breathing room and above the 55-DMA
to hint at a move back to $0.7594-0.7735 where 100 ($0.7594) & 200 ($0.7684)
DMAs are located with above $0.7552 confirming.
     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 93.713 Support Key
*RES 4: 96.617 - High June 28 2017 
*RES 3: 95.532 - 100-WMA 
*RES 2: 95.241 - High July 13 
*RES 1: 95.067 - Hourly support July 13 now resistance
*PRICE: 94.727 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 94.642 - Low July
*SUP 2: 94.486 - High July 6 now support
*SUP 3: 94.018 - Low July 10
*SUP 4: 93.975 - 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 12mth highs lacked follow through in past weeks with
hesitation around the 100-WMA continuing. Bulls take comfort in the bounce from
the 55-DMA last week but continue to look for a close above the 100-WMA (95.532)
to target 96.617. Bears now look for a close below 94.486 to gain breathing room
and below 93.713 to confirm traction below the 55-DMA, initial focus on
92.837-93.193 and hint at a move back to 100 (92.231) & 200 (92.270) DMAs.
     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.884-2.950 Resistance Region Key
*RES 4: 2.935 - Hourly resistance June 21 
*RES 3: 2.900 - High June 26 
*RES 2: 2.884 - High July 3 
*RES 1: 2.875 - High July 10
*PRICE: 2.829 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.825 - Hourly support July 11 
*SUP 2: 2.807 - Low July 6 
*SUP 3: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a 
*SUP 4: 2.759 - Low May 29
*COMMENTARY: Overall bearish focus remains on 2.717-759 where Apr & May lows are
noted with a close below 2.807 to add weight to their case. The Bollinger base
(2.803) and modestly O/S studies remain key concern for bears and limit follow
through. Bulls continue to look for a close above 2.884 to gain breathing room
and above 2.950 to confirm breaks of 21, 55 & 100-DMAs and pressure the key
3.014-050 resistance region.
     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (U18) $67.76 Support Remains Key
*RES 4: $72.98 - Monthly High July 10 
*RES 3: $72.08 - Low July 10 now resistance 
*RES 2: $71.13 - Low July 9 now resistance 
*RES 1: $70.60 - High July 13
*PRICE: $69.58 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $68.76 - Low July 13 
*SUP 2: $67.76 - High June 25 now support 
*SUP 3: $66.77 - Low June 25 
*SUP 4: $65.89 - 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of $73.00 has taken its toll on U18 with the sharp
sell-off dipping below the 55-DMA ($68.46). Bears now look for a close below
$67.76 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and shift initial focus to $65.89-66.77
where the 100-DMA is noted. Layers of resistance building and correcting O/B
studies have recently weighed. Bulls now need a close above $71.13 to shift
focus back to $72.08-98.
     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 200-WMA
*RES 4: $1271.5 - 100-WMA 
*RES 3: $1260.2 - High July 10 
*RES 2: $1256.0 - 21-DMA 
*RES 1: $1248.6 - Low July 10 now resistance
*PRICE: $1243.1 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1236.6 - 2018 Low July 3 
*SUP 2: $1235.9 - Monthly low Dec 12 
*SUP 3: $1234.0 - 200-WMA 
*SUP 4: $1227.1 - High July 7 2017 now support
*COMMENTARY: The topside failure ahead of the 21-DMA left the pair looking
offered and bears have not been disappointed with gold now flirting with the LT
rising TL off 2015 lows ($1242.5) and the 200-WMA. Bears look for a close below
the 200-WMA to confirm breaks of key supports and initially target $1204.5.
Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower. Bulls now need a close
above $1260.2 to ease bearish pressure and to return initial focus to
$1271.5-1272.6 where the 100-WMA is noted and above $1272.6 now to initially
target $1283.4-1292.1 where the bear channel top off Apr highs and the 55-DMA
($1283.4) are situated.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]