MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis

25 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.1625 & $1.1765 Levels Key

*RES 4: $1.1854 High May 16

*RES 3: $1.1820 High June 11

*RES 2: $1.1790 High July 9

*RES 1: $1.1765 Hourly resistance July 9

*PRICE: $1.1678 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1655 Low July 24 

*SUP 2: $1.1625 Hourly support July 20 

*SUP 3: $1.1572 Weekly Bull channel base off 2017 low 

*SUP 4: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29

*COMMENTARY: The $1.1765 resistance reconfirmed significance with it capping to

start the new week. Bulls need a close above $1.1765 to confirm traction above

the 55-DMA ($1.1701) and ease bearish pressure. Key MAs are noted $1.1933-1.1979

with bulls needing a close above $1.1996 to confirm breaks and initially target

$1.2153. Bears still need a close below $1.1625 to return immediate focus to

2018 lows.

     CABLE TECHS: $1.3362 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $1.3315 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: $1.3300 High July 10 

*RES 2: $1.3287 55-DMA 

*RES 1: $1.3171 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1.3141 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1.3126 Hourly support July 24 

*SUP 2: $1.3069 Low July 24 

*SUP 3: $1.3050 Hourly resistance July 20 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.2992 Low July 20

*COMMENTARY: The break of the key $1.2995 support last week lacked follow

through with bulls taking comfort in the recovery Friday. Bulls now look for a

close above $1.3203 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and bear channel top

($$1.3176), easing bearish pressure. The $1.3362 resistance remains key. Bulls

need a close above this level to confirm traction above the 55-DMA ($1.3287) and

shift initial focus to $1.3446. The $1.3050 support remans key. Bears need a

close below to ease pressure on the 21-DMA and shift initial focus back to

$1.2955 2018 lows.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y109.95-110.74 Support Region Key

*RES 4: Y113.26 200-WMA 

*RES 3: Y112.69 Low July 18 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y111.90 Hourly resistance July 20 

*RES 1: Y111.54 High July 23

*PRICE: Y111.30 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.74 Low July 23 

*SUP 2: Y110.49 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y110.10 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y109.95 Low June 28

*COMMENTARY: The break below the 21-DMA (Y111.36) and daily bull channel base

off 2018 lows lacked follow through with the pair bouncing from just below

Y110.75. Bears now need a close below Y110.74 to confirm breaks of the 21-DMA

and bull channel base and add weight to the case for a test of the Y109.95

support. Below Y109.95 then pressures Y108.96-109.01 where the 100-DMA is noted.

Bulls look for a close above Y111.54 to gain breathing room and above Y111.90 to

return focus to Y113.26 where the 200-WMA is found.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Flirting With 21-DMA

*RES 4: Y131.85 200-DMA

*RES 3: Y131.49 Hourly resistance July 18

*RES 2: Y131.20 High July 20

*RES 1: Y130.46 Hourly resistance July 23

*PRICE: Y129.99 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.72 Low July 24 

*SUP 2: Y129.29 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y128.40 Low July 2 

*SUP 4: Y127.70 Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: The pair failed to gain traction above the 55-WMA (Y131.53) last

week. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 200-DMA to confirm a break of

the 55-WMA and target Y133.48-135.58 where the LT TL off 2014 highs is noted.

The break of Y129.83 has so far lacked follow through with bears now needing a

close below Y129.72 to hint at a move back to Y128.40 with below the 55-DMA

(Y129.29) to confirm. Bulls now need a close above Y130.46 to gain breathing

room and above Y131.20 to shift focus back to the 200-DMA.

     EURO-STERLING TECHS: 21-DMA Support Key Today 

*RES 4: Gbp0.8967 2018 High Mar 7 

*RES 3: Gbp0.8940 Hourly resistance July 20 

*RES 2: Gbp0.8926 High July 24 

*RES 1: Gbp0.8908 Low July 23 now resistance

*PRICE: Gbp0.8884 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: Gbp0.8872 Low July 18 

*SUP 2: Gbp0.8861 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: Gbp0.8838 Hourly support July 16 

*SUP 4: Gbp0.8818 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of 2018 highs has left the pair looking heavy with

focus on the Gbp0.8861-72 region today where the 21-DMA is noted. Bears now need

a close below the 21-DMA to shift focus to Gbp0.8779-0.8818 where 55, 100 &

200-DMAs are located. Correcting modestly O/B daily studies are currently seen

weighing. Bulls now need a close above Gbp0.8908 to gain breathing room and

above Gbp0.8926 to return pressure to the 2018 high.

     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7484 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $0.7527 - Low June 13 now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7484 - High July 10

*RES 2: $0.7459 - Hourly support July 10 now resistance

*RES 1: $0.7448 - Hourly resistance July 25

*PRICE: $0.7396 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7357 - Low July 24 

*SUP 2: $0.7328 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $0.7308 - 2018 Low July 2 

*SUP 4: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in the failure to make fresh 2018 lows and the

bounce to end last week that returned pressure to the $0.7442-84 resistance

region. Bulls now need a close above $0.7484 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA

($0.7475) and hint at a move back to $0.7567-0.7735 where 100 ($0.7567) & 200

($0.7669) DMAs are located with above $0.7552 confirming. The failures ahead of

the 55-DMA remain a concern for bulls with bears currently focused on 2018 lows.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 55-DMA Remains Key Support

*RES 4: 96.652 - 2018 High July 19 

*RES 3: 95.520 - 100-WMA 

*RES 2: 95.280 - High July 20 

*RES 1: 94.933 - Low July 19 now resistance

*PRICE: 94.624 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 94.238 - 55-DMA

*SUP 2: 93.713 - Low July 9

*SUP 3: 93.193 - Low June 14

*SUP 4: 92.837 - High May 11 now support

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 13mth highs lacked follow through courtesy of the

Bollinger top last Thursday which sees initial focus on the 55-DMA. Bears now

need a close below the 55-DMA to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and below

93.713 to shift initial focus on 92.837-93.193. Bulls continue to look for a

close above 94.933 to gain breathing room and above the 100-WMA (95.520) to

target 96.617.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 55-DMA Support Key Today

*RES 4: 3.014 - High May 24 

*RES 3: 2.985 - Hourly resistance June 13 

*RES 2: 2.973 - High July 24 

*RES 1: 2.956 - Hourly support July 24 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.934 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.923 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: 2.902 - Hourly resistance July 23 now support 

*SUP 3: 2.880 - Hourly support July 20 

*SUP 4: 2.860 - Hourly resistance July 20 now support

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's low resulted in a close above the key

2.950 resistance this week confirming traction above the 55-DMA. Bullish focus

has shifted to the 3.014-084 resistance region with a close above 3.084 to

confirm initial focus on 3.128-223 where 2018 highs are noted. Bears need a

close below the 55-DMA to gain breathing room and below 2.880 to shift initial

focus back to 2.807.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (U18) Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: $71.13 - Low July 9 now resistance 

*RES 3: $70.60 - High July 13 

*RES 2: $69.84 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $69.31 - High July 23

*PRICE: $68.75 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $67.52 - Hourly support July 19 

*SUP 2: $67.21 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: $66.40 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: $65.89 - High June 20 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in support emerging ahead of the 100-DMA and the

$65.89 support. Bulls still need a close above the 21-DMA to shift initial focus

back to $70.60-71.13. Daily studies correcting from O/S add support to the

bullish case. In saying that, while the 21-DMA caps bears remain focused on the

$65.89-66.30 supports with a close below $67.21 now needed to buy bears

breathing room.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1236.6

*RES 4: $1248.6 - Low July 10 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1241.7 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $1236.6 - Low July 13 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1234.0 - 200-WMA

*PRICE: $1224.4 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: $1217.8 - Low July 24 

*SUP 2: $1211.1 - 2018 Low July 19 

*SUP 3: $1204.6 - Monthly low July 10 2017 

*SUP 4: $1194.5 - Monthly Low Mar 10 2017

*COMMENTARY: Bears took comfort in the topside failure around the 200-WMA to

start the new week although failure to trouble 2018 lows is less than ideal with

daily studies correcting from O/S. Bulls still need a close above $1236.6 to

gain breathing room and above $1260.2 to return initial focus to $1270.5-1272.6

where the 100-WMA is noted. Bears remain focused on $1204.6 while $1236.6 caps.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]