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MNI European Morning FX Technical Analysis 

27 July 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FX Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/kvgb59s
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Topside Hesitation Takes Its Toll
*RES 4: $1.1820 High June 11
*RES 3: $1.1790 High July 9
*RES 2: $1.1765 Hourly resistance July 9
*RES 1: $1.1668 Hourly resistance July 26
*PRICE: $1.1644 @ 0130GMT
*SUP 1: $1.1625 Hourly support July 20 
*SUP 2: $1.1611 Bollinger band base 
*SUP 3: $1.1578 Weekly Bull channel base off 2017 low 
*SUP 4: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29
*COMMENTARY: The $1.1765 resistance remains key with the pair remaining capped
on approach again Thursday. Bulls need a close above $1.1765 to confirm traction
above the 55-DMA ($1.1691), easing of bearish pressure, and shifting initial
focus to $1.1854. Key MAs are noted $1.1932-1.1977 with bulls needing a close
above $1.1996 to confirm breaks and initially target $1.2153. Bears now need a
close below $1.1578 to add weight to the case for a retest of 2018 lows.
     CABLE TECHS: $1.3050 Support Key Today
*RES 4: $1.3272 55-DMA 
*RES 3: $1.3213 High July 26 
*RES 2: $1.3169 Hourly support July 26 now resistance 
*RES 1: $1.3132 Hourly resistance July 26
*PRICE: $1.3110 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1.3069 Low July 24 
*SUP 2: $1.3050 Hourly resistance July 20 now support 
*SUP 3: $1.2992 Low July 20 
*SUP 4: $1.2955 2018 Low July 19
*COMMENTARY: Failure to gain traction above the 21-DMA ($1.3174) has seen cable
sold off once more with immediate focus back on the $1.3050-69 support region.
Bears now look for a close below $1.3050 to confirm initial focus on retests of
2018 lows. Overall bears target $1.2587 while $1.3362 caps. Bulls now need a
close above $1.3213 to ease bearish pressure.
     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y109.95
*RES 4: Y113.26 200-WMA 
*RES 3: Y112.69 Low July 18 now resistance 
*RES 2: Y111.90 Hourly resistance July 20 
*RES 1: Y111.54 High July 23
*PRICE: Y110.95 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y110.55 55-DMA 
*SUP 2: Y110.08 200-DMA 
*SUP 3: Y109.95 Low June 28 
*SUP 4: Y109.35 Low June 25
*COMMENTARY: The break below the 21-DMA (Y111.42) and daily bull channel base
off 2018 lows continues to lack follow through with the pair again bouncing from
ahead of the 55-DMA. Bears now need a close below Y109.95 to confirm breaks of
55 & 200-DMAs and pressure Y108.96-109.37 where the 100-DMA is noted. Bulls look
for a close above Y111.54 to gain breathing room and above Y111.90 to return
focus to Y113.26 where the 200-WMA is found.
     EURO-YEN TECHS: Flirting With 55-DMA
*RES 4: Y131.20 High July 20
*RES 3: Y130.46 Hourly resistance July 23
*RES 2: Y130.01 Hourly resistance July 26a
*RES 1: Y129.65 Hourly resistance July 26
*PRICE: Y129.27 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Y128.42 Bollinger band base 
*SUP 2: Y128.40 Low July 2 
*SUP 3: Y127.95 Hourly resistance June 29 now support 
*SUP 4: Y126.98 Low June 21
*COMMENTARY: Losses have defined the week so far with the pair currently
flirting with the 55-DMA (Y129.26) as it trades below the bull channel base
(Y129.47) off May lows. Bears continue to look for a close below the 55-DMA to
shift immediate focus back to Y128.40 and hint at a move back to 2018 lows.
Bulls now need a close above Y130.46 to gain breathing room and above Y131.20 to
shift focus back to the 200-DMA. Daily studies approaching O/S and the Bollinger
base are key concerns for bears.
     EURO-STERLING TECHS: Gbp0.8862 Support Key Today 
*RES 4: Gbp0.8967 2018 High Mar 7 
*RES 3: Gbp0.8940 Hourly resistance July 20 
*RES 2: Gbp0.8926 High July 24 
*RES 1: Gbp0.8908 Low July 23 now resistance
*PRICE: Gbp0.8884 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: Gbp0.8867 21-DMA 
*SUP 2: Gbp0.8862 Low July 26 
*SUP 3: Gbp0.8838 Hourly support July 16 
*SUP 4: Gbp0.8817 200-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The break of the 21-DMA has so far lacked follow through with bears
now needing a close below Gbp0.8862 to shift focus to Gbp0.8779-0.8817 where 55,
100 & 200-DMAs are located. Correcting modestly O/B daily studies are currently
seen weighing. Bulls now need a close above Gbp0.8908 to gain breathing room and
above Gbp0.8926 to return pressure to the 2018 high.
     AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7484 Resistance Key This Week
*RES 4: $0.7527 - Low June 13 now resistance
*RES 3: $0.7484 - High July 10
*RES 2: $0.7470 - 55-DMA
*RES 1: $0.7393 - Hourly resistance July 26
*PRICE: $0.7391 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7357 - Low July 24 
*SUP 2: $0.7336 - Bollinger band base 
*SUP 3: $0.7308 - 2018 Low July 2 
*SUP 4: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017
*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in the failure to make fresh 2018 lows and the
bounce to end last week that returned pressure to the $0.7442-84 resistance
region. Bulls still need a close above $0.7484 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA
($0.7470) and hint at a move back to $0.7552-0.7735 where 100 ($0.7558) & 200
($0.7664) DMAs are located with above $0.7552 confirming. While $0.7484 caps
bears retain initial focus on retests of 2018 lows.
     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 94.933 Resistance Key Today
*RES 4: 96.652 - 2018 High July 19 
*RES 3: 95.521 - 100-WMA 
*RES 2: 95.280 - High July 20 
*RES 1: 94.933 - Low July 19 now resistance
*PRICE: 94.672 @0430GMT
*SUP 1: 94.583 - Hourly support July 26
*SUP 2: 94.396 - Hourly resistance July 25 now support
*SUP 3: 94.084 - Low July 26
*SUP 4: 93.713 - Low July 9
*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 55-DMA (94.311) has failed to produce a close below
with bulls taking comfort in the bounce Thursday. Bulls continue to look for a
close above 94.933 to gain breathing room and above the 100-WMA (95.521) to
target 96.617. Bears now need a close below 94.084 to confirm a break of the
55-DMA and hint at a move back to 92.837-93.193 with below 97.713 to confirm.
     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Initial Focus On 3.014-084
*RES 4: 3.128 - 2018 High May 18 
*RES 3: 3.084 - High May 21 
*RES 2: 3.050 - Low May 22 
*RES 1: 3.014 - High May 24
*PRICE: 2.984 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.971 - Hourly resistance July 26 now support 
*SUP 2: 2.947 - Low July 26 
*SUP 3: 2.922 - 55-DMA 
*SUP 4: 2.902 - Hourly resistance July 23 now support
*COMMENTARY: The 55-DMA confirmed significance with an aggressive bounce from
ahead of this level Wednesday reconfirming bullish focus on 3.014-084. Bulls
need a close above 3.084 to confirm initial focus on 3.128-223 where 2018 highs
are noted. Bears still need a close below the 55-DMA to gain breathing room and
below 2.880 to shift initial focus back to 2.807.
     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (U18) Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA
*RES 4: $72.08 - Low July 10 now resistance 
*RES 3: $71.13 - Low July 9 now resistance 
*RES 2: $70.60 - High July 13 
*RES 1: $69.80 - 21-DMA
*PRICE: $69.52 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $69.45 - Hourly support July 26 
*SUP 2: $68.92 - Low July 26 
*SUP 3: $68.20 - Low July 25 
*SUP 4: $67.52 - Hourly support July 19
*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in support emerging ahead of the 100-DMA and the
$65.89 support with pressure returning to the 21-DMA. Bulls still need a close
above the 21-DMA to shift initial focus back to $70.60-71.13. While the 21-DMA
caps bears remain focused on the $65.89-66.30 supports with a close below $68.92
needed to buy bears breathing room.
     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1236.6
*RES 4: $1248.6 - Low July 10 now resistance 
*RES 3: $1239.5 - 21-DMA 
*RES 2: $1236.6 - Low July 13 now resistance 
*RES 1: $1234.0 - 200-WMA
*PRICE: $1224.0 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: $1217.8 - Low July 24 
*SUP 2: $1211.1 - 2018 Low July 19 
*SUP 3: $1204.6 - Monthly low July 10 2017 
*SUP 4: $1194.5 - Monthly Low Mar 10 2017
*COMMENTARY: Bears took comfort in the topside failure around the 200-WMA to
start the new week although failure to trouble 2018 lows is less than ideal with
daily studies correcting from O/S. Bulls still need a close above $1236.6 to
gain breathing room and above $1260.2 to return initial focus to $1270.5-1272.6
where the 100-WMA is noted. Bears initially remain focused on $1204.6 while
$1236.6 caps. 
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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