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Fig. 1: U.S. & UK 2-/10-Year Yield Spreads

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg


POLITICS: Liz Truss, front-runner to be Britain's next prime minister, will set out her economic plans to finance sector officials on Friday, including scrapping legacy EU laws by the end of 2023. (RTRS)

POLITICS: Rishi Sunak was deemed to have won Sky News' Battle for Number 10 after the majority of audience members voted for him ossver rival Liz Truss. Ms Truss and Mr Sunak faced tough challenges from Conservative members who are mostly undecided, followed by questions from Sky News' Kay Burley. (Sky)

ECONOMY: UK recruitment companies reported the slowest increase in hiring in 17 months as businesses grow more cautious about the outlook for the economy. The Recruitment & Employment Confederation and KPMG said said its measure of demand for both permanent and temporary staff continued slowing, and new vacancies cooled to a 16-month low. (BBG)


FRANCE: France’s parliament approved an anti-inflation package for households, in a sign President Emmanuel Macron can pass legislation even after losing his outright majority in the National Assembly. (BBG)

ITALY: Italy's government on Thursday approved an economic aid package worth 17 billion euros ($17.4 billion) to help shield firms and families from surging energy costs and consumer prices, Prime Minister Mario Draghi said. (RTRS)

ITALY: The Italian government is committed to fully collecting revenues stemming from a windfall tax imposed on energy companies, Prime Minister Mario Draghi said on Thursday. (RTRS)

RATINGS: Potential rating reviews of note scheduled for after hours on Friday include:

  • Fitch on France (current rating: AA; Outlook Negative) and Latvia (current rating: A-; Outlook Stable)
  • Moody’s on the Czech Republic (current rating: Aa3; Outlook Stable)
  • S&P on the European Financial Stability Facility (current rating AA; Outlook Stable) and the European Stability Mechanism (current rating: AAA; Outlook Stable)
  • DBRS Morningstar on Sweden (current rating AAA; Stable Trend)


FED: The U.S. Federal Reserve should raise interest rates to above 4% to help bring inflation down and must aim to keep tightening through the first half of next year, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said on Thursday. (RTRS)

FISCAL: Senator Kyrsten Sinema said she’ll back a tax and climate bill after fellow Democrats agreed to drop a provision that would have narrowed a tax break for carried interest. The deal with Sinema removes one of the last hurdles for the budget bill carrying core components of President Joe Biden’s domestic agenda. Senate Democrats are still awaiting however a ruling by the top Senate rules official as to whether parts of the bill meet strict budget rules. (BBG)


CHINA/TAIWAN: Several batches of PLA warplanes and warships were spotted crossing the median line of the Taiwan Strait in drills as of 11 am local time Friday, according to a statement from Taiwan’s Defense Ministry. (BBG)

CHINA/TAIWAN: Taiwan's "evil neighbour" next door is showing off her power at our door, the island's premier said on Friday, referring to China's military drills taking place around Taiwan this week. (RTRS)

U.S./CHINA/TAIWAN: The Biden administration postponed a routine test launch of an Air Force Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile to avoid escalating tensions with Beijing as the Chinese military engages in a show of force near Taiwan, the White House said Thursday. The Air Force had planned to conduct the test launch this week from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, but has now delayed it, officials said. (WSJ)

U.S./CHINA/TAIWAN: The White House on Thursday condemned China's decision to launch live missiles near Taiwan as "irresponsible" and said it expected Beijing would continue to react in the coming days to a visit by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. (RTRS)

U.S./CHINA/TAIWAN: U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on Friday that her trip through Asia, which prompted an infuriated China to hold live-fire military drills in the waters off Taiwan, was never about changing the status quo in Taiwan or the region. (RTRS)

U.S./JAPAN/CHINA/TAIWAN: Japan and the United States agreed on Friday to work together on maintaining peace in the increasingly tense Taiwan Strait, amid unprecedented military drills by China including five missiles that landed in Japan's exclusive economic zone. (RTRS)

EU/CHINA/TAIWAN: China's foreign ministry said on Friday it lodged solemn representations to relevant European countries and EU envoys over statements on Taiwan issued by the foreign ministers from the Group of Seven (G7) nations and the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. (RTRS)

RBA: Australia’s central bank lifted its inflation and wage growth forecasts while predicting unemployment will remain under 4% through mid-2024, underscoring the need for even tighter monetary policy. (BBG)

NORTH KOREA: North Korea has tested explosive devices and begun digging new underground tunnels at its Punggye-ri nuclear test site, which "paves the way for additional nuclear tests for the development of nuclear weapons," according to a draft U.N. report obtained by Nikkei. (Nikkei)

ASIA: The Bank of Korea (BOK) said Friday it will host meetings of top central bankers and financial regulators from the East Asia and Pacific region early next week to discuss regional cooperation. BOK Gov. Rhee Chang-yong will attend the Executives' Meeting of East Asia and Pacific Central Banks (EMEAP) to be held in Seoul from Sunday to Tuesday, according to his office. (Yonhap)

CANADA: Canada said on Thursday it would launch a trade challenge against the United States over what it called the "unfair" duties Washington is imposing on certain softwood lumber products. (RTRS)

BRAZIL: Brazil’s Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva received the backing of a trucker leader who withdrew from the presidential race, potentially allowing the leftist front-runner to make forays into a key support base for incumbent Jair Bolsonaro. (BBG)

BRAZIL: Brazil's Economy Ministry expects the central government to post a primary surplus of 6 billion reais ($1.15 billion) this year, its first since 2013, according to internal estimates seen by Reuters. An official from the ministry, speaking on condition of anonymity as the calculations are not public, called the estimate conservative because it considers 36 billion reais in extraordinary dividends in 2022. (RTRS)

RUSSIA: U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will likely try to speak with his Russian counterpart on the sidelines of a meeting in Cambodia, White House national security spokesperson John Kirby said on Thursday after U.S. basketball star Brittney Griner was sentenced to nine years in prison on drugs charges in Russia. (RTRS)

RUSSIA: Japan’s trade ministry asked the nation’s tradinghouses to hold onto their investment in a Russian natural gas export facility, the latest move by Tokyo to secure energy supply despite rising tension with Moscow. (BBG)

IRAN: The gulf separating Iran and the US has grown wider since the last round of nuclear talks in Vienna, European Union diplomats said as the latest negotiations get underway. At least two new nuclear-related issues have cropped up in recent months, lengthening the list of hurdles to be cleared to six or seven, according to two EU officials familiar with talks that resumed in the Austrian capital Thursday. They asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations. (BBG)

ARGENTINA: Argentina's new economy chief took a first step toward imposing new restraints on government expenditures, spending that has fueled one of Latin America's highest inflation rates in a country long plagued by financial turmoil. (RTRS)

PERU: Peru's Congress on Thursday forced President Pedro Castillo to stay in the country this week as he navigates a leadership crisis, without a prime minister and with a new Cabinet expected to be sworn in on Friday. (RTRS)

GAS: A stand-off over the return of a turbine that Russia says is holding back gas supplies to Europe showed no sign of being resolved on Thursday, with Moscow saying it needed documentation to confirm the equipment was not subject to sanctions. (RTRS)

OIL: The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) should tread a fine line as not to consume all oil reserves, the Organization's Secretary General Haitham al-Ghais told Al-arabiya TV on Thursday. Al-Ghais also commented on OPEC's decision on Wednesday to only increase production by 100,000 barrels per day by saying: "we aim to test market reaction". The secretary general also said the organization was not in a competition with Russia saying: "the market has room for all", ading even with the discounts we heard Russia is giving to Asia. (RTRS)


ECONOMY: Chinese Premier Li Keqiang has signalled a higher tolerance for inflation this year, as Beijing looks to stabilise the economy in the face of multiple headwinds ranging from global recession risks to geopolitical uncertainty. (SCMP)

ECONOMY: The Chinese economy may face greater downward pressure in Q4 without major incremental policy steps in the face of economic weakness and higher prices, wrote Wu Ge, chief economist of Changjiang Securities in a blog post. CPI growth may accelerate to break the 3% ceiling early Q3 amid rising pork and vegetable prices. A downturn in exports is also likely, though shipments are resilient in the short term under a low base, said Wu. There is a possibility of cutting the five-year Loan Prime Rate, Wu added. (MNI)

ECONOMY: China’s July exports will remain robust with double-digit growth likely around 15% y/y in U.S. dollar terms, supported by the supply advantage of China’s manufacturing industry, the China Securities Journal reported citing analysts. The throughput of foreign trade goods at coastal ports monitored by the China Port Association increased by 6.3% y/y, reversing June’s 3.4% fall, the newspaper said. External demand is still guaranteed with the U.S. and Japan’s manufacturing PMI in the expansionary zone and high prices amid overseas inflation will continue to form a certain support for China’s exports. China Customs is set to release July trade data on Sunday. (MNI)

CREDIT: China’s new loans in July likely remained relatively strong, with analysts predicting from CNY1.1 to 1.6 trillion, following the unexpectedly robust growth of CNY2.81 trillion in June, the Securities Daily reported citing analysts. The medium and long-term loans of enterprises will increase as rescue and pro-growth policies kick in. But individual loans may not see improvement due to risk events in the real estate sector, the newspaper said citing analysts. July aggregate finance may also be slightly above CNY1 trillion, supported by still large government bond sales, compared to June’s CNY5.17 trillion, the newspaper said citing analysts. The central bank is set to release July financial data next week. (MNI)

CORONAVIRUS: The Chinese beach resort city of Sanya has become the nation’s latest virus hotspot with more than 100 Covid-19 cases recorded Thursday, leaving thousands of holidaymakers stranded in one of the country’s most popular summer destinations. (BBG)

PROPERTY: Several Chinese cities have moved to tighten oversight of property presale funds held in escrow accounts to ensure home deliveries, Securities Times says in a front-page report Friday. (BBG)

BANKING: Four rural banks in Henan province will expand efforts to repay victims in the nation’s biggest bank scam, according to a statement from the local branch of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission. (BBG)



The People's Bank of China (PBOC) injected CNY2 billion via 7-day reverse repos with the rate unchanged at 2.1% on Friday. This keeps the liquidity unchanged after offsetting the maturity of CNY2 billion repos today, according to Wind Information.

  • The operation aims to keep liquidity reasonable and ample, the PBOC said on its website.
  • The 7-day weighted average interbank repo rate for depository institutions (DR007) rose to 1.8693% at 9:50 am local time from the close of 1.2953% on Thursday.
  • The CFETS-NEX money-market sentiment index closed at 44 on Thursday vs 40 on Wednesday.


The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate lower at 6.7405 on Friday, compared with 6.7636 set on Thursday.








Below gives key levels of markets in the second half of the Asia-Pac session:

  • Nikkei 225 up 211.97 points at 28144.17
  • ASX 200 up 35.966 points at 7010.90
  • Shanghai Comp. up 9.067 points at 3198.106
  • JGB 10-Yr future up 11 ticks at 150.73, yield down 1.2bp at 0.166%
  • Aussie 10-Yr future up 5 ticks at 96.885, yield down 5.8bp at 3.086%
  • U.S. 10-Yr future -0-02+ at 120-21, yield down 0.55bp at 2.683%
  • WTI crude up $0.35 at $88.89, Gold up $1.26 at $1792.52
  • USD/JPY up 37 pips at Y133.26

US TSYS: Tight Asia Trade Ahead Of NFPs

A muted pre-NFP Asia-Pac session saw a modest early bid on the back of the dynamics that supported most of the Tsy curve on Thursday, with a sprinkling of regional worry surrounding the Taiwan situation also thrown in. The space then moved away from best levels as the Democrats came to an agreement re: the overarching finalities of the Inflation Reduction Act (voting, technicalities and the view of the Parliamentarian re: several matters will likely be addressed over the weekend/in the coming days), before the latest round of Chinese incursions surrounding Taiwanese borders in the Taiwan Strait provided some modest support.

  • TYU2 deals in the middle of an 0-08 range into London hours, -0-03 at 120-20+, on sub-standard volume of ~45K lots. Cash Tsys sit 0.5bp richer to 0.5bp cheaper across the curve.
  • Looking ahead, the aforementioned labour market report headlines the NY docket today (click for our full preview of that event), with comments from Richmond Fed President Barkin (’24 voter) also due.

JGBS: Modest Early Moves Stick

JGB futures have nudged higher during the Tokyo afternoon, after unwinding overnight gains during early Tokyo trade. The contract last deals +13 as we work towards the bell.

  • Firmer than expected household spending and wage data, coupled with a very modest dip in the wider fixed income sphere and an uptick for the Nikkei 225, provided early sources of pressure. Although it seems to be continued worry surrounding the situation in Taiwan (with Japan’s rhetoric resulting in the cancellation of a bilateral meeting between the Japanese & Chinese Foreign Ministers, in addition to the Japanese ambassador to China being summoned) that allowed a bid to reassert itself in the Tokyo afternoon.
  • The early bull flattening has extended as a result, with the major cash JGB benchmarks running little changed to 4.5bp richer across the curve.
  • Looking ahead, Monday’s domestic docket includes BoP data and the latest economy watchers survey.

JGBS AUCTION: Japanese MOF sells Y4.54002tn 3-Month Bills:

The Japanese Ministry of Finance (MOF) sells Y4.54002tn 3-Month Bills:

  • Average Yield: -0.1299% (prev. -0.1323%)
  • Average Price: 100.0324(prev. 100.0330)
  • High Yield: -0.1202% (prev. -0.1419%)
  • Low Price: 100.0300 (prev. 100.0354)
  • % Allotted At High Yield: 46.6848% (prev. 42.3116%)
  • Bid/Cover: 2.703x (prev. 2.504x)

AUSSIE BONDS: Back From Lows

Aussie bonds are off their session extremes, sitting little changed from levels witnessed before the release of the RBA’s quarterly SoMP. Meanwhile, U.S. Tsys stuck to a tight range, providing little by way of meaningful, lasting direction for ACGBs throughout the Sydney session (coiling ahead of NFP data due in the NY session).

  • Cash ACGBs run 3.0-5.5bp richer across the curve, with the belly leading the bid. YM and XM are +3.5 and +5.0, with the latter operating a little below ts overnight peaks after failing to meaningfully break above those levels earlier. Bills run 2 ticks cheaper to 2 ticks richer through the reds.
  • The latest round of ACGB Apr-2027 supply went smoothly, with the weighted average yield pricing 2.01bp through prevailing mids (per Yieldbroker estimates), while the cover ratio dipped to 3.14x - below the six-auction average at 4.13x, but not suggesting anything by way of a worrying decline in demand at that level. The easily digestible DV01 on offer (A$321K) and the fact that the line is borrowed via the RBA’s SLF (indicating wider demand for access to the line) likely aided the firm pricing.
  • The release of the RBA’s quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP) did little to rock ACGBs, with the major economic forecasts having already been released in Tuesday’s post-meeting statement. The highlights surrounding the release remains the lifting of the RBA’s inflation outlook to 7.75% by Dec ’22, with unemployment expected to bottom out by end-’22 before rising to 4% by end ‘24. RBA assumptions surrounding the cash rate at year end were in line with the midpoint of analyst and market expectations, meaning there wasn’t any meaningful market reaction to that verse of the release.
  • The release of the weekly AOFM issuance slate similarly saw little reaction in the Aussie bond space, with three rounds of ACGBs on offer for a total of A$1.8bn.
  • Monday will see July foreign reserves headline the data docket, with A$300mn of ACGB Apr-2037 on offer via auction.

AUSSIE BONDS: The AOFM sells A$700mn of the 4.75% 21 Apr ‘27 Bond, issue #TB136:

The Australian Office of Financial Management (AOFM) sells A$700mn of the 4.75% 21 Apr ‘27 Bond, issue #TB136:

  • Average Yield: 2.8527% (prev. 3.1454%)
  • High Yield: 2.8550% (prev. 3.1525%)
  • Bid/Cover: 3.1400x (prev. 3.9929x)
  • Amount allotted at highest accepted yield as percentage of amount bid at that yield: 89.8% (prev. 38.1%)
  • Bidders 46 (prev. 41), successful 12 (prev. 4), allocated in full 6 (prev. 2)

AUSSIE BONDS: AOFM Weekly Issuance Slate

The AOFM has released its weekly issuance slate:

  • On Monday 8 Aug it plans to sell A$300mn of the 3.75% 21 April 2037 Bond.
  • On Tuesday 9 Aug it plans to sell A$100mn of the 1.25% 21 August 2040 I/L Bond.
  • On Wednesday 10 Aug it plans to sell A$800mn of the 1.00% 21 November 2031 Bond.
  • On Thursday 11 Aug it plans to sell A$1.0bn of the 11 November 2022 Note & A$1.0bn of the 16 December 2022 Note.
  • On Friday 12 Aug it plans to sell A$700mn of the 0.50% 21 September 2026 Bond.

EQUITIES: Mostly Higher In Asia; Defence Stocks Gain As Chinese Live-Fire Drills Continue

Major Asia-Pac equity indices are mostly higher at typing, bucking a mixed, tech-focused lead from Wall St. Notable gains were observed in semiconductor and defence-related stocks across the region, with the latter sector catching a bid as reports of China firing missiles over Taiwan and into Japan’s EEZ has done the rounds.

  • The Nikkei is 0.8% better off at typing, hitting two-month highs in the process. Consumer staples and tech stocks outperformed, with the former catching a bid after domestic household spending data beat expectations, pointing to Japanese consumers increasing their spending for the first time in four months. Looking ahead, index heavyweight Tokyo Electron (+3.0%) reports earnings next Monday, with focus likely turning to its outlook amidst recent gloom-tinged forecasts issued by semiconductor industry peers.
  • The Hang Seng trades 0.1% higher at typing, paring opening gains of as much as 0.5%. The property (+0.6%) and finance (+0.2%) sub-indices are in the green for a change, supported by Securities Times reports of several cities strengthening supervision of property presale funds in escrow accounts to ensure home deliveries.
  • The ASX200 is 0.4% firmer at writing, with gains in materials (+1.7%) and healthcare (+0.8%) countering losses in energy and tech. The S&P ASX All Tech Index deals 0.7% softer at typing, with sentiment in the sector weaker after heavyweight Block Inc’s (-5.9%) earnings disappointment.
  • The Taiex is 2.0% better off at writing after opening higher, on track to completely unwind losses observed earlier this week despite ongoing tensions with China on the back of outperformance in the Semiconductor (+2.7%) sub-gauge.
  • E-minis trade 0.3% firmer apiece, with NASDAQ 100 contracts hitting three-month highs earlier in the session.

OIL: A Little Off Five Month Lows; Demand Worry In Focus

WTI and Brent are ~$0.20 firmer apiece, operating a little above their respective troughs established on Thursday. Both benchmarks are on track for a lower weekly close, weighed down in recent sessions by demand destruction worry amidst high energy prices and well-documented recession fears, offsetting moderating concerns re: disruptions to near-term crude supplies.

  • To recap, WTI and Brent hit fresh six- and five-month lows respectively before closing >$2 weaker on Thursday, with crude now back at ranges observed before the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
  • U.S. energy data this week has contributed to the bulk of debate re: demand destruction, with Cushing hub stocks reporting a build for a fifth straight week, while gasoline consumption remains below ‘20 levels even as the country eases out of “peak demand” season.
  • Keeping within the country, EIA data has shown U.S. airline fuel consumption dipping below last year’s levels (on a seasonal basis) amidst reduced flying activity, with the industry reeling from labour woes and high fuel costs.
  • Looking to supply concerns, RTRS source reports on Thursday pointed to Saudi Arabia and the UAE being prepared to make a “significant increase” in oil output during the winter months of ‘22 should a “severe supply crisis” arise. Estimates of OPEC’s spare capacity typically place it at >2mn bpd at present, concentrated in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

GOLD: Little Changed In Asia; $1,800/oz Eyed

Gold deals~$2/oz weaker to print ~$1,789/oz at typing, backing away from its earlier bid as an initial downtick in nominal U.S. Tsy yields has reversed course. The precious metal however remains on track for a third straight higher weekly close as the USD (DXY) has extended a pullback away from cycle highs, with rising geopolitical and recession-related worry providing support for the space as well.

  • To recap Thursday’s price action, gold closed ~$26 higher, facilitated by a downtick in the DXY, while wider worry re: economic slowdowns were bumped higher as the BoE forecast that the UK will potentially enter a recession in Q4 ‘22 that may last for over a year, after unveiling its largest rate hike in 27 years.
  • Elsewhere, the commencement of Chinese live-fire drills in the waters surrounding Taiwan (with Japan accusing China of firing missiles over Taiwanese territory and into its own EEZ) has contributed to some haven demand, with condemnation from the likes of the U.S. and Japan kicking geopolitical tensions higher a notch (note that China on Thursday cancelled a planned bilateral meeting of foreign ministers with Japan over the G7’s joint statement re: Taiwan).
  • From a technical perspective, gold is through initial resistance at the $1,783.1/oz (50-Day EMA), with the relatively clear break higher suggesting potential for a bullish extension, exposing further resistance at $1,804.6/oz (trendline resistance).

FOREX: Yen Loses Ground, USD/JPY Flirts With Weekly Gain

The yen gave back its initial gains and retreated, extending gains after the Tokyo fix, amid a positive showing from the equity space. Both regional benchmarks and U.S. e-minis crept higher despite a mixed Thursday session on Wall Street.

  • The rebound in USD/JPY may have been facilitated by a degree of widening in U.S./Japan yield spread. Risk reversal held steady after soaring to multi-week highs on Thursday. A large ($1.5bn) option expiry at Y134.00 for today's NY cut may render this level magnetic.
  • Sterling traded on a slightly softer footing, likely due to regional reaction to the BoE's commentary that came alongside yesterday's rate decision. Gov Bailey outlined a downbeat assessment of the economy and said GBP decline is "not a crisis."
  • The greenback outperformed at the margin, with the BBDXY index moving away from yesterday's lows, with participants preparing for a key jobs market report out of the U.S.
  • While U.S. NFP report will steal the limelight later in the day, its Canadian equivalent as well as German industrial output data and comments from Fed's Barkin & BoE's Pill are also due.

UP TODAY (Times GMT/Local)

05/08/20220600/0800**DE Industrial Production
05/08/20220600/0700*UK Halifax House Price Index
05/08/20220645/0845*FR Industrial Production
05/08/20220645/0845*FR Foreign Trade
05/08/20220645/0845*FR Current Account
05/08/20220700/0900**ES Industrial Production
05/08/20220800/1000*IT Industrial Production
05/08/20221115/1215UKBOE Pill Monetary Policy Report National Agency Briefing
05/08/20221200/0800USRichmond Fed's Tom Barkin
05/08/20221230/0830***CA Labour Force Survey
05/08/20221230/0830***US Employment Report
05/08/20221400/1000*CA Ivey PMI
05/08/20221900/1500*US Consumer Credit
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |

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