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MNI Payrolls Preview: Just How Much Slower

Skittish markets heading into the July payrolls report see sizeable two-sided risks to a report expected to show further moderation in jobs growth

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • Consensus sees nonfarm payrolls growth moderating to 250k in July in a resumption of a downward trend after four remarkably steady months as the gap on pre-pandemic employment levels is almost completely shut.
  • Particular focus is likely on the strength of jobs growth plus any differences between establishment and household surveys, with FOMC speakers putting weight on labour market strength as evidence against the economy already being in recession.
  • Particularly large swings in markets in the run in to this release create sizeable two-sided risk. Fed Funds futures are currently torn between a 50bp or 75bp hike at the Sept FOMC with a second payrolls report, two CPI reports and the Jackson Hole symposium still to come before then.

PLEASE FIND THE FULL NOTE INCLUDING PREVIEWS FROM 13 ANALYSTS HERE:

USNFPAug2022Preview.pdf

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • Consensus sees nonfarm payrolls growth moderating to 250k in July in a resumption of a downward trend after four remarkably steady months as the gap on pre-pandemic employment levels is almost completely shut.
  • Particular focus is likely on the strength of jobs growth plus any differences between establishment and household surveys, with FOMC speakers putting weight on labour market strength as evidence against the economy already being in recession.
  • Particularly large swings in markets in the run in to this release create sizeable two-sided risk. Fed Funds futures are currently torn between a 50bp or 75bp hike at the Sept FOMC with a second payrolls report, two CPI reports and the Jackson Hole symposium still to come before then.

PLEASE FIND THE FULL NOTE INCLUDING PREVIEWS FROM 13 ANALYSTS HERE:

USNFPAug2022Preview.pdf