CANADA TO PUBLISH FISCAL UPDATE ON DEC. 16

MNI BRIEF: Inflation Expectations Tick Higher - NY Fed

MNI BRIEF: China Passenger Car Sales Up In November Y/Y

MNI BRIEF: Mexico Inflation Down To 4.55% In November

MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, December 9

MNI BRIEF: China To Strengthen Policy Easing In 2025: Poliburo

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Austria, UK Auction on Tuesday

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Spain, Belgium Auction on Tuesday

MNI:US OCT WHOLESALE INV 0.2%; SALES -0.1%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

MNI Payrolls Preview: Just How Much Slower

Photo by Tim Mossholder on Unsplash

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • Consensus sees nonfarm payrolls growth moderating to 250k in July in a resumption of a downward trend after four remarkably steady months as the gap on pre-pandemic employment levels is almost completely shut.
  • Particular focus is likely on the strength of jobs growth plus any differences between establishment and household surveys, with FOMC speakers putting weight on labour market strength as evidence against the economy already being in recession.
  • Particularly large swings in markets in the run in to this release create sizeable two-sided risk. Fed Funds futures are currently torn between a 50bp or 75bp hike at the Sept FOMC with a second payrolls report, two CPI reports and the Jackson Hole symposium still to come before then.

PLEASE FIND THE FULL NOTE INCLUDING PREVIEWS FROM 13 ANALYSTS HERE:

USNFPAug2022Preview.pdf

MarketsHomepageFOMC Calendar Market News
MarketsHomepageFOMC Calendar Market News

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.