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MNI EUROPEAN OPEN: BoJ Remains Last Dove Standing

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Fig. 1: BBDXY Index and its 50-DMA

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

UK

BOE: The Bank of England confirmed its first asset sales from the quantitative easing asset portfolio will start on Nov. 1 but delayed the second auction to avoid a clash with the government’s fiscal statement. (BBG)

FISCAL: Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt are exploring tax increases and public spending cuts worth up to £50bn a year to fill a gaping hole in the public finances, according to allies of the chancellor. (FT)

POLITICS: Rishi Sunak wants a new cross-Channel deal with France to include targets for how many boats are stopped from reaching the UK to prevent Britain’s asylum system collapsing, The Times has been told. (Times)

POLITICS: Andrew Griffith was reappointed City minister on Thursday as Rishi Sunak continued to form his government, despite further questions over the conduct of home secretary Suella Braverman. (FT)

POLITICS: Rishi Sunak has been warned his decision to not attend the crucial Cop27 climate summit in Egypt in little over a week undermines the UK’s climate leadership as the world slips behind targets to limit global warming. (Independent)

NORTHERN IRELAND: Northern Ireland is heading towards an “unnecessary” election that will polarise the region’s politics without resolving a longstanding dispute over post-Brexit trade that has paralysed its institutions, Ireland’s foreign minister has said. (FT)

NORTHERN IRELAND: Taoiseach Micheál Martin has said the lack of a devolved government in Northern Ireland expands what could potentially come under ‘joint authority’ between London and Dublin as an alternative to direct rule from Westminster. (Irish Times)

EUROPE

ECB: European Central Bank officials weren’t unanimous about the size of Thursday’s interest-rate hike and sought to avoid giving a specific signal on their next move in December, according to people familiar with the matter. (BBG)

UKRAINE: Ukrainians living in and around Kyiv have been told of a “sharp deterioration” in the region’s electricity supply after a fresh wave of Russian strikes aimed at sapping public morale as the country’s cold winter approaches. (Guardian)

UKRAINE: Ukrainian forces attacked Russia’s hold on the southern city of Kherson on Thursday while fighting intensified in the country’s east. The battles came amid reports that Moscow-appointed authorities have abandoned the city, joining tens of thousands of residents who fled to other Russia-held areas. (AP)

U.S.

ECONOMY: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she doesn't see signs of a recession in the U.S. currently because of factors such as low unemployment and a high number of job vacancies. (WSJ)

ECONOMY: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that while slower growth would help tame inflation, data released Thursday showed the US economy was resilient in the face of global challenges. (BBG)

POLITICS: Even as pollsters and election forecasters see growing signs of a red wave, Americans' interest in topics that tend to favor Republicans are still below their peak, according to the latest data in Axios' midterms dashboard. (Axios)

DEFENCE: The Pentagon on Thursday released a new set of documents outlining a sweeping strategy for U.S. security, seeking more deterrence for a list of threats topped by Russia and China. (Hill)

EQUITIES: Elon Musk has taken control of Twitter and ousted the CEO, chief financial officer and the company’s general counsel, two people familiar with the deal said Thursday night. (AP)

EQUITIES: Elon Musk plans to assume the role of chief executive officer at Twitter Inc. after completing his $44 billion acquisition, taking the helm of the social media giant on top of leading Tesla Inc. and SpaceX. (BBG)

EQUITIES: More than $550bn has been wiped off the value of the biggest US tech companies this week, with headlong growth stalling because of the slowing global economy and mounting cost pressures. (FT)

OTHER

ASIA: The International Monetary Fund cut Asia's economic forecasts on Friday as global monetary tightening, rising inflation blamed on the war in Ukraine, and China's sharp slowdown dampened the region's recovery prospects. (RTRS)

BOJ: The Bank of Japan on Friday decided to retain ultralow interest rates to support the Japanese economy amid rising inflationary pressure from higher energy and raw material costs and the yen's continuing falls. (Kyodo)

JAPAN: Prime Minister Fumio Kishida ordered an extra budget of 29.1 trillion yen ($199 billion) to fund an economic stimulus package aimed at easing the impact of rising prices on consumers and companies, and boosting growth as he seeks to bolster sliding support for his year-old government. (BBG)

SOUTH KOREA: South Korea and the United States will hold major combined air drills, involving some 240 military aircraft, next week to verify the allies' wartime operational capabilities, the Air Force here said Friday, amid growing North Korean security threats. (Yonhap)

SOUTH KOREA: The Bank of Korea (BOK) will hold its rate-setting meeting a total of eight times in 2023, with the year's first gathering of monetary policymakers set for Jan. 13, the central bank said Friday. (Yonhap)

NORTH KOREA: The world is holding its breath over the possibility that North Korea might undertake a nuclear bomb test, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said on Thursday. (SCMP)

NORTH KOREA: North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) toward the East Sea on Friday, the South Korean military said, as Seoul's major military exercise drew to a close. (Yonhap)

TAIWAN: An explosion hit Taiwan's state-backed CPC Dalin Refinery in the southern city of Kaohsiung on Thursday night, videos and images from the Fire Department showed with heavy fire seen above the plant, officials said, adding nobody was hurt in the incident. (RTRS)

BRAZIL: Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro heads into Sunday's election with strong support among evangelical Christians, a key demographic that his rival former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva had been courting in a tight presidential race. (RTRS)

RUSSIA: Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday denied having any intentions of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine but described the conflict there as part of alleged efforts by the West to secure its global domination, which he insisted are doomed to fail. (AP)

RUSSIA: So far, Russia has been “absolutely deterred from attacking NATO,” a second defense official said with a level of confidence rarely heard from the US, especially amid escalating rhetoric from Russia and its state-run media outlets. (CNN)

RUSSIA: Russia said it could target U.S. commercial satellites if they are used to help Ukraine, expanding its threats of reprisals to a new theater that could hit closer to home for American interests. (WSJ)

MIDDLE EAST: Defense Minister Benny Gantz on Thursday held a meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the presidential residence in Ankara. According to Gantz’s office, the pair discussed a “series of strategic issues, and the two countries’ commitment to work for stability, prosperity, and security in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean.” (Times of Israel)

OIL: Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman held discussions on supporting and increasing the stability of the international oil market with European ministers, according to Saudi state news agency SPA. (RTRS)

OIL: A fleet of tankers filled with Russian fuel oil have anchored near Singapore and Malaysia as more flows are directed toward Asia ahead of European Union sanctions that take effect early next year. (SCMP)

CHINA

ECONOMY: MNI: China Will Struggle To Hit 2022 Target On Stimulus Delay (MNI)

ECONOMY: China will focus on the implementation of pro-growth policies, stabilise employment and prices, and strive to promote better economic performance in Q4 than in Q3, Xinhua News Agency reported citing a State Council executive meeting chaired by Premier Li Keqiang. It is necessary to accelerate construction and funds should be redirected to new projects if construction fails to start on time, the meeting said. The issuance of loans for manufacturers to upgrade equipment should be quickened to expand demand, the meeting said. City-specific policies should support the purchase of first and second homes, the meeting added. (MNI)

YUAN: The yuan will continue to fluctuate both ways instead of continuing its recent sharp depreciation as it is supported by China’s pro-growth policies, current account surplus, and sufficient counter-cyclical tools, said the 21st Century Business Herald in a commentary. The growing expectation for a dovish turn by the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank amid increasing fears of recessions could weaken the U.S. Dollar Index and ease some depreciation pressure on yuan against the dollar, the newspaper said. There are plenty of regulatory tools the People’s Bank of China can use, such as continuing to lower the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio and implementing its counter-cyclical factor, to ensure the yuan fluctuates within a reasonable range, the newspaper said. (MNI)

YUAN: The global status of yuan has steadily improved in terms of receipts and payments, and reserves, and foreign investors have increased their holdings of yuan bonds for the eighth consecutive year, Securities Daily reported citing a report by China Banking Association. To quicken yuan internationalisation, regulators should seek to expand the scale of bilateral currency swaps and promote the unification of policy standards for using domestic and foreign currencies in trade and investment, the report said. Widening the scope of participants in cross-border investment in China's financial markets, more active development of the offshore yuan market, and optimising the offshore yuan clearing system was also recommended. (MNI)CHINA MARKETS

PBOC NET INJECTS CNY88BN VIA OMOS FRIDAY

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) on Friday injected CNY90 billion via 7-day reverse repos with the rates unchanged at 2.00%. The operation has led to a net injection of CNY88 billion after offsetting the maturity of CNY2billion reverse repos today, according to Wind Information.

  • The operation aims to keep month-end liquidity stable, the PBOC said on its website.
  • The 7-day weighted average interbank repo rate for depository institutions (DR007) fell to 1.9900% at 9:29 am local time from the close of 2.0229% on Thursday.
  • The CFETS-NEX money-market sentiment index closed at 49 on Thursday vs 48 on Wednesday.

PBOC SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 7.1698 FRI VS 7.1570

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate higher at 7.1698 on Friday, compared with 7.1570 set on Thursday.

OVERNIGHT DATA

JAPAN OCT TOKYO CPI +3.5% Y/Y; MEDIAN +3.3%; SEP +2.8%
JAPAN OCT TOKYO CORE CPI +3.4% Y/Y; MEDIAN +3.2%; SEP +2.8%
JAPAN OCT TOKYO CORE-CORE CPI +2.2% Y/Y; MEDIAN +2.0%; SEP +1.7%

JAPAN SEP UNEMPLOYMENT 2.6%; MEDIAN 2.5%; AUG 2.5%
JAPAN SEP JOB-TO-APPLICANT RATIO 1.34; MEDIAN 1.33; AUG 1.32

AUSTRALIA Q3 PPI +6.4% Y/Y; Q2 +5.6%
AUSTRALIA Q3 PPI +1.9% Q/Q; Q2 +1.4%

NEW ZEALAND OCT ANZ CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX 85.4; SEP 85.4
NEW ZEALAND OCT ANZ CONSUMER CONFIDENCE 0.0% M/M; 0.0%

Consumer confidence was unchanged in October at 85.4. The proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item, the best indicator for retail spending, rose 3 points to 22%. Inflation expectations were little changed at 5.0%, versus 5.1% last month. It’s very unusual for businesses’ inflation expectations to sit higher than consumer inflation expectations. (ANZ)

MARKETS

SNAPSHOT: BoJ Remains Last Dove Standing

Below gives key levels of markets in the second half of the Asia-Pac session:

  • Nikkei 225 down 164.74 points at 27180.59
  • ASX 200 down 59.434 points at 6785.7
  • Shanghai Comp. down 28.538 points at 2954.365
  • JGB 10-Yr future up 8 ticks at 148.73, yield down 1.5bp at 0.241%
  • Aussie 10-Yr future up 8 ticks at 96.235, yield down 9bp at 3.740%
  • U.S. 10-Yr future +0-00+ at 111-22+, yield up 1.11bp at 3.930%
  • WTI crude down $0.94 at $88.14, Gold up $0.89 at $1664.19
  • USD/JPY down 4 pips at Y146.25
  • ECB WASN’T UNANIMOUS ON HOKE, DIDN’T WANT TO SIGNAL FUTURE PACE (BBG)
  • BOJ MAINTAINS ULTRALOW RATES, RAISES INFLATION OUTLOOK (Kyodo)
  • TSY SEC YELLEN DOESN’T CURRENTLY SEE SIGNS OF RECESSION (WSJ)
  • SUNAK EXPLORES TAX RISES AND SPENDING CUTS OF UP TO GBP50BN (FT)
  • RUSSIA’S PUTIN RULES OUT USING NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN UKRAINE (AP)
  • MUSK IN CONTROL OF TWITTER, OUSTS TOP EXECUTIVES (AP)

US TSYS: T-Notes Turn Heavy, Cash Curve Bear Flattens

T-Notes ground lower through the Asia-Pac session, even as a slew of weak earnings reports from U.S. tech giants this week generated weakness in NASDAQ 100 e-minis, which kept a lid on local equity-index futures. The move may have represented a correction of yesterday's dynamic advance, driven by a "dovish hike" from the ECB and underwhelming U.S. core PCE & durable goods data. A sudden, now mostly unwound post-BoJ drop in JGBs may have added pressure to core FI peers.

  • T-Notes last trade -0-01 at 111-21, hovering just above 111-19 session low. Eurodollar futures run 1-8 ticks higher through the reds. Cash Tsy curve bear flattened, with yields last seen 0.9-3.1bp higher. The 5-Year/30-Year sector has moved closer to inversion territory, as the relevant spread sits at less than 1bp.
  • With participants digesting the BoJ's monetary policy statement and outlook report, focus turns to the upcoming press conference with Gov Kuroda.
  • U.S. data highlights today include employment cost index, personal income/spending, pending home sales & final Uni. of Mich. survey.

JGBS: Benchmark Futures Tumble Post-BoJ But Quick Rebound Ensues, Gov Kuroda's Presser Eyed

JGBs were volatile as the BoJ's monetary policy review took centre stage. Benchmark futures climbed to a session high of 148.95 in morning trade, but tumbled as trading restarted after the lunch break. During the pause in trading, the Policy Board announced the outcome of its unanimous vote to leave all key monetary policy parameters and dovish forward guidance unchanged, while tweaking the economic forecasts, sharply raising the inflation outlook and charting a flatter growth trajectory.

  • Futures slumped to a session low of 148.41 in response to the BoJ's statement before a reassessment of the decision brought a rebound. The contract last deals at 148.66, unch. versus previous settlement.
  • All eyes will are on Gov Kuroda's presser (15:30 JST/07:30 BST). His dovish briefing last month inspired aggressive yen sales, which led to Japan's first FX intervention to shore up its currency since 1998.
  • Tokyo core CPI inflation, a bellwether of nationwide price dynamics, accelerated to the fastest pace since late 1980s, but the BoJ still sees the outcome as transitory, driven by temporary cost-push factors rather than the desired growth in wages.
  • Ahead of the BoJ announcement, PM Kishida unveiled an Y29.1tn fiscal package designed to mitigate the impact of inflationary pressures.
  • Cash JGB yields are lower across the curve, save for 5s, with curve flatter on the back of outperformance in the super-long end. 10s pulled back from the BoJ's 0.25% yield cap.

AUSSIE BONDS: Early Gains Pared, ACGB Nov-32 Sale Causes Little Reaction

ACGBs pulled back from highs, losing ground alongside U.S. Tsys as the session progressed. The sale of ACGB Nov-32 came and went, while the release of the AOFM's weekly issuance slate coincided with a brief bout of increased volatility.

  • The auction of a Nov' 32 note drew a bid/cover ratio of 2.38x, down from 3.19x at the previous offering, while the tail widened. The yield on that tenor in secondary market sits at 1.42%, with little in the way of reaction to the auction today.
  • The AOFM outlined its plans to hold just one bond auction next week, offering A$800mn of ACGB Nov-28 next Wednesday. It also outlined plans to issue a new May-34 Bond via syndication in the week beginning Nov 7.
  • Local data were shrugged off, with PPI inflation quickening to +6.4% Y/Y in Q3 from +5.6% prior. This comes after an expectation-busting CPI report published earlier this week.
  • Benchmark futures contracts have virtually unwound early gains, with YM last +8.0 & XM +6.0 as YMXM sits +1.5. Bills run 3-10 ticks higher through the reds.
  • ACGB curve still runs slightly steeper, with yields last 7.0-5.2bp lower. 3-Year/10-Year differential has tightened at the margin.
  • Swaps still fully price a 25bp rate hike from the RBA at next week's Board meeting.

AUSSIE BONDS: ACGB Nov-32 Auction Results

The Australian Office of Financial Management (AOFM) sells A$800mn of the 1.75% 21 November 2032 Bond, issue #TB165:

  • Average Yield: 3.7520% (prev. 4.0029%)
  • High Yield: 3.7575% (prev. 4.0050%)
  • Bid/Cover: 2.3813x (prev. 3.1938x)
  • Amount allotted at highest accepted yield as percentage of amount bid at that yield 5.3% (prev. 62.1%)
  • Bidders 39 (prev. 42), successful 21 (prev. 11), allocated in full 16 (prev. 6)

AUSSIE BONDS: AOFM Weekly Issuance Slate

The AOFM has released its weekly issuance slate:

  • On Wednesday 2 November it plans to sell A$800mn of the 2.75% 21 November 2028 Bond.
  • On Thursday 3 November it plans to sell A$1.0bn of the 10 February 2023 Note, A$500mn of the 24 February 2023 Note & A$500mn of the 14 April 2023 Note.
  • It also notes that subject to market conditions, a new May 2034 Treasury Bond is planned to be issued via syndication in the week beginning 7 November 2022. Further details of the issue will be announced next week.

EQUITIES: HK/China Downtrend Resumes

Major Asia Pac equity indices are lower, following negative overnight leads from US markets and weaker futures since the open. Amazon's profit result disappointed, while Apple presented mixed results (iPhone sales weaker than expected). Futures are away from worst levels though, with Eminis holding above 3800.

  • The tech backdrop weighed on the HSI, which is down 2.3% currently, with the tech sub index down 4.2%. Both these indices are on track for weekly losses. The US Administration is reportedly considering expanding its curbs on technology related exports to China.
  • In China, the CSI is off 1%, with a continued rise in local covid case numbers weighing, and on-going lockdowns in parts of the country. Building stocks were lower, even as the PBoC called on support for bond sales of local property developers.
  • South Korea (-0.50%) and Taiwan (-0.90%) are down, weighed by tech headwinds. Sk Hynix amongst the worst performers for the Kospi. Offshore investors have also sold $127.5mn of local stocks so far today.
  • The ASX 200 is down around 1%, weighed by miners amid the continued fall in iron ore prices (last just under $80/tonne). Japan stocks were mixed, as the BoJ left policy parameters unchanged, while fiscal stimulus efforts step up.
  • Singapore shares are up 1.85%, a one bright spot for the region, as local bank UOB posted solid Q3 earnings.

OIL: Off Highs, But Still On Track For Solid Weekly Gains

Brent crude is down -0.80% from NY closing levels, last in the low $96/bbl region. This follows two sessions of strong gains, and we are still +2.87% on closing levels from the end of last week. Overnight highs around $97.30 were fresh highs going back to October 10. WTI is following a similar trajectory, last just above $88/bbl, but still +3.5% higher for the week. On-going tight supplies, coupled with a USD pull back, have aided crude sentiment.

  • In terms of headline flow, US President stepped up his criticism of energy companies (after Shell's bumper profit result). This comes as domestic gasoline prices are trending higher, amid low inventories. The energy price issue is seen as important one for the Democrats ahead of the upcoming mid-term elections.
  • Energy Ministers from Saudi Arabia and France stated the need to increase oil market stability, per Bloomberg reports. Both sides agreed to strengthen relations to secure supplies for global markets.
  • Next week we get an update on China domestic demand conditions with official PMI prints on Monday. Bloomberg will publish a survey of OPEC crude production for October on Tuesday, we will also get the API report. Then on Wednesday is the EIA weekly report, along with the main macro event risk for the week, the Fed decision.

GOLD: Trying To Post Another Weekly Gain

Gold is little changed from levels that prevailed this time yesterday. The precious metal is around $1664 currently, near the middle of the $1655/$1675 range for the past few sessions.

  • We are trying to post another weekly gain (currently +0.40%, last week was +0.80%).
  • Dips overnight to $1655 were supported, despite the rebound in broad USD performance. Still, gold lags the correction in the USD seen since the middle of the month, so may be less sensitive to such shifts in the near term.
  • The other overnight support came from lower US real yields, with the 10yr slipping back to 1.51%, from 1.60%. This is lows back near the start of the month.
  • We saw fresh downside momentum in nominal UST yields today, but sentiment has now stabilized. The 2yr back to 4.29%, +2bps for the session.

FOREX: JPY Underperforms Weaker USD Backdrop

The USD is lower, with the BBDXY back to 1321, moves up towards 1325 faded by the market. We haven't broken back strongly back below the simple 50-day MA though (1320.82). JPY has lagged the broader USD sell-off as the BOJ held steady.

  • USD/JPY was volatile around the BoJ announcement, spiking towards 147.00, before slumping back to 146.00. As expected, no major changes to policy parameters were announced, while inflation forecasts were revised higher, but remain comfortably sub 2.0% for next financial year. The pair last sits around 146.25.
  • EUR/USD has firmed back towards parity, last 0.9985. An initial catalyst was lower UST 2yr yields, which dipped below overnight lows, but EUR has held gains even as yields recovered (last 4.30%).
  • NZD/USD has outperformed, up 0.60%, although has seen selling resistance above 0.5870. NZD/USD has lagged, up +0.30% to 0.6470. Fresh declines in iron ore (sub $80/tonne) not weighing materially. Both currencies though have outperformed the weaker tone from US/Regional equities.
  • Coming up, German NRW CPI is still yet to print, while economic and industrial confidence will print for the Euro area. In the US, the main focus will be on the PCE deflator, along with U. of Mich Consumer sentiment.

FX OPTIONS: Expiries for Oct28 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)

  • EUR/USD: $0.9800(E892mln), $0.9900(E551mln), $0.9975(E632mln), $1.0000(E1.6bln), $1.0100(E758mln), $1.0200(E912mln)USD/JPY: Y147.00($505mln)
  • EUR/JPY: Y146.50(E1.0bln)
  • GBP/USD: $1.1000(Gbp1.3bln), $1.1210(Gbp758mln)
  • USD/CAD: C$1.3690-05($550mln)
  • USD/CNY: Cny7.00($4.0bln)

UP TODAY (Times GMT/Local)

DateGMT/LocalImpactFlagCountryEvent
28/10/20220430/0630***DE North Rhine Westphalia CPI
28/10/20220530/0730**FR Consumer Spending
28/10/20220530/0730***FR GDP (p)
28/10/20220600/0800***SE GDP
28/10/20220600/0800**SE Retail Sales
28/10/20220645/0845***FR HICP (p)
28/10/20220645/0845**FR PPI
28/10/20220700/0900***ES GDP (p)
28/10/20220700/0900***ES HICP (p)
28/10/20220700/0900*CH KOF Economic Barometer
28/10/20220800/1000***DE GDP (p)
28/10/20220800/1000***DE Bavaria CPI
28/10/20220800/1000**IT PPI
28/10/20220900/1100***IT HICP (p)
28/10/20220900/1100**EU Economic Sentiment Indicator
28/10/20220900/1100*EU Consumer Confidence, Industrial Sentiment
28/10/20220900/1100*EU Business Climate Indicator
28/10/20220900/1100***DE Saxony CPI
28/10/20221030/1330RU Russia Central Bank Key Rate Decision
28/10/20221200/1400***DE HICP (p)
28/10/2022-***JP BOJ policy announcement
28/10/20221230/0830***CA Gross Domestic Product by Industry
28/10/20221230/0830**US Personal Income and Consumption
28/10/20221230/0830**US Employment Cost Index
28/10/20221400/1000**US NAR pending home sales
28/10/20221400/1000***US Final Michigan Sentiment Index
28/10/20221500/1100CA Finance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected)

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