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MNI Eurozone Inflation Insight – June 2024
MNI Eurozone Inflation Insight – June 2024
Services Remain The Sticking Point
- Eurozone core inflation surprised marginally to the upside in June, with the 2.86% Y/Y unrounded print enough to surprise analyst expectations to the upside by one-tenth of a percentage point on a rounded basis.
- Familiar themes remained at play though. Services HICP was 4.1% Y/Y for the second consecutive month, while core goods inflation remained soft at 0.7% Y/Y. Meanwhile, headline inflation met consensus at 2.5% Y/Y.
- With few idiosyncratic factors at play in June (bar the European football championships in Germany), the data provided a “clean” read on underlying inflation persistence relative to prior months.
- With services HICP still sticky, and the ECB’s seasonally adjusted data indicating that core momentum remains reasonably strong, we don’t think the June flash round warrants any material change in ECB rhetoric ahead of the July 18 meeting.
- Our review of June's preliminary Eurozone inflation data includes breakdowns and analysis of the national inflation prints, and some sell-side reactions.
Full PDF analysis:
Source: ECB, Eurostat, MNI Calculations
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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