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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MNI Eurozone Inflation Preview – December 2023
MNI Eurozone Inflation Preview – December 2023
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Sticky Services Remain Key Obstacle To Cuts
The December print for Eurozone flash inflation will be released on Friday Jan 5, alongside Italian price data, and following France and Germany (Thursday Jan 4) and the Netherlands (earlier on Friday).
- Data already released for the December inflation round (for Spain, Portugal, Belgium, and the German state of Saarland - see below) is broadly consistent with current consensus expectations for Eurozone Y/Y headline HICP of 3.0% (2.4% prior) and core of 3.4% (3.6% prior).
- Energy price base effects are expected to provide the biggest upside driver of Y/Y headline inflation, though M/M prices are seen softening. Food prices are set to continue decelerating on a Y/Y and M/M basis.
- On the core front, goods prices are expected to retreat further, but services are seen to be relatively sticky.
- The ECB's outlining of domestic inflation as the key element going forward points to services inflation, and thus wage growth, as being the dominant consideration in future policy decisions.
- Our preview includes analysis of price categories to watch, assessments of underlying inflation trends, outlooks for the French, German, and Italian national inflation prints, and sell-side analyst previews.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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