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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MNI Eurozone Inflation Preview – September 2023
MNI Eurozone Inflation Preview – September 2023
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Starting To Separate The Signal From The Noise
September is expected to bring the first Y/Y eurozone HICP prints below 5% since November 2021 for headline, and for September 2022 for core.
- With consensus of 4.5% Y/Y for HICP (5.2% Aug), and 4.8% for core (5.3% Aug), however, readings will remain well above the ECB’s target.
- The next few months will play an essential role in the ECB’s path to 2% inflation, after a summer of significant “noise” distorting the “signal” when strong base effects from 2022, weighting changes, and atypical seasonal movements in core goods price categories all contributed to volatile readings.
- While service sector inflation is seen to have peaked in the summer, that’s in large part due to the aforementioned one-off effects, with some analyst disagreement over whether strong wage growth will prevent further progress ahead.
- Our preview includes analysis of price categories to watch, assessments of underlying inflation trends, outlooks for the French, German, Italian, and Spanish national inflation prints, and sell-side analyst previews.
FOR FULL PDF ANALYSIS:
Source: Eurostat, ECB, MNI Calculations
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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