MNI EXCLUSIVE: Diluted Brazil Pension Reform Nears Majority

     BRASILIA(MNI) - A watered-down version of the Brazilian government's social

security reform is close to garnering the Congressional support it needs for

approval, an informal survey of party leaders by MNI shows, even as President

Jair Bolsonaro loses popularity.

     Leaders of parties grouping 297 members of the 513 members of the Chamber

of Deputies indicated that they would support part of the reform, while 62

deputies would back it in its current version and 134 oppose it, according to

the survey. MNI contacted the leaders of 21 parties, representing 493 deputies

in total.

     Among those who would partially approve the legislation, the main

reservations concern changes to rural retirement, the creation of a minimum

retirement age for teachers, and changes to the Continuous Benefit welfare

payment made to elderly or disabled people below the poverty line. If these

measures, already likely to be modified by a congressional committee in the

coming weeks, are put into place, fiscal savings from the bill over the next 10

years would be halved to $150 billion from $300 billion.

     "If there are concessions at any point in the project, we will try to

compensate in other budget areas," said Congressman Samuel Moreira, of the

centre-right PSDB party, who is coordinating the bill. After meeting with

Moreira, Economy Minister Paulo Guedes told reporters he was confident of the

reform's chances of success: "We are optimistic that we will be able to approve

a reform with the necessary fiscal power to unlock the horizon of investment in

Brazil for the next 10, 15 years and be able to resume growth."

     The reform is set to be voted on in the committee stage in June, when it

will need a majority of the 49 deputies. Voting in the Chamber of Deputies

should take place by mid-July, and the Senate would conclude the process between

September and October.

     "This pension reform is not just the exclusive agenda of the Bolsonaro

Government, it is for all Brazil," Daniel Coelho, leader of the centre-left

Cidadania party told MNI.

     While Bolsonaro has stepped up attacks on his political rivals in recent

weeks, even as polls show that only 32% of Brazilians approve his government

while 30% disapprove, others, including Secretary for Social Security and Labour

Rogerio Marinho have softened their tone.

     "Congress is a democratic counterweight," Marinho, who previously resisted

changes to the legislation, told reporters.

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3829; email: jason.webb@marketnews.com

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