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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
FED
- FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE CLICK HERE FOR LINK - note: has been updated since the Apr 26 publication to reflect Deutsche Bank's Fed funds rate call change post-March FOMC – see p.4 of PDF and table below
- Consensus on the path of Fed policy has become marginally more hawkish since the March FOMC meeting, as incoming data has bolstered confidence in the economic recovery.
- Prior to the March FOMC, some analysts had expected tapering starting only in 2023 and hikes in 2025, but such calls have mostly been brought forward (changes in expectations are bolded in the table below – BNP Paribas and TD have made the most significant changes; Deutsche has pushed back its hiking call).
- Broad sell-side consensus is that asset purchase tapering will begin by early 2022 (beginning ranges from mid-2021/Q3 2021 though), with Fed funds rate hikes not before late 2023/early 2024 (though liftoff timing ranges from mid-2022, to late 2024).
- For a summary of analysts` individual notes, please see pages 10-15 of PDF
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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