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- FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE CLICK HERE FOR LINK - note: has been updated since the Apr 26 publication to reflect Deutsche Bank's Fed funds rate call change post-March FOMC – see p.4 of PDF and table below
- Consensus on the path of Fed policy has become marginally more hawkish since the March FOMC meeting, as incoming data has bolstered confidence in the economic recovery.
- Prior to the March FOMC, some analysts had expected tapering starting only in 2023 and hikes in 2025, but such calls have mostly been brought forward (changes in expectations are bolded in the table below – BNP Paribas and TD have made the most significant changes; Deutsche has pushed back its hiking call).
- Broad sell-side consensus is that asset purchase tapering will begin by early 2022 (beginning ranges from mid-2021/Q3 2021 though), with Fed funds rate hikes not before late 2023/early 2024 (though liftoff timing ranges from mid-2022, to late 2024).
- For a summary of analysts` individual notes, please see pages 10-15 of PDF