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MNI Fed Preview - Jun 2021: Some "Talk", But Too Early To Act

FED

The FOMC is likely to begin "talking about talking" about tapering at its June meeting.

  • But Chair Powell will make clear that the FOMC is not yet ready to move any further than that on reducing asset purchases, with the recent jump in inflation being only "transitory", and weaker-than-expected job growth leaving the Fed far away from achieving its "substantial further progress" criteria.
  • The 2023 Fed funds rate dots in the SEP are likely to show further support for a hike, with a good chance the median rises. The outlook for "transitory" inflation will also be eyed in the projections.
  • The Fed is likely to hold off on tweaking the IOER and ON RRP rates (though prevailing analyst consensus is that this is a very close call).

FULL FED PREVIEW PDF

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