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- The September FOMC meeting will set up a taper start in late 2021, increasingly likely in November.
- While details of the FOMC's taper plan may not emerge from this meeting, a taper is likely to include $15B/meeting pace and optionality to adjust at each meeting, opening up the possibility of an end-2022 rate hike.
- Consensus expects the median Fed funds rate 'dot plot' path to remain fairly static at this meeting vs the June projections, setting up hawkish risks.
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Analyst Views – Fed Outlook