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ACGB Apr-24 Under Pressure

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(Z1) Downside Pressure Resumes

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MNI's preview for the September 2021 FOMC meeting has been published (click on that link for the full analysis on our website, and email has gone out to subscribers).

  • The September FOMC meeting will set up a taper start in late 2021, increasingly likely to be in November.
  • While details of the FOMC's taper plan may not emerge from this meeting, a taper is likely to include $15B/meeting pace and optionality to adjust at each meeting, opening up the possibility of an end-2022 rate hike.
  • Consensus expects the median Fed funds rate 'dot plot' path to remain fairly static at this meeting vs the June projections, setting up hawkish risks.