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MNI Gilt Week Ahead

There will be three major domestic foci: MPC speak, continued Budget discussions and the flash PMI data.
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  • Governor Bailey is due to speak three times during the week (and then again on Saturday). The main thing the market will be watching for is whether he repeats the language he used in his Guardian interview earlier this month when he said that if the inflation data surprised to the downside the MPC would need to be “more activist”.
  • On the Budget side, most of the measures should be finalised this week as the OBR will send two forecasting rounds to the Chancellor – round 4 on Tuesday and round 5 on Friday ahead of the publication of the Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) alongside the Budget on Wednesday 30 October. We will release our full Budget preview later this week.
  • In terms of data, the subcomponents of the PMIs will be watched closely as the main data release remaining ahead of the BOE’s November MPR. We also receive CBI trends data and the GfK consumer confidence data this week.

For the full document including supply previews for the week ahead, click here: GiltWeekAhead20241021.pdf

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  • Governor Bailey is due to speak three times during the week (and then again on Saturday). The main thing the market will be watching for is whether he repeats the language he used in his Guardian interview earlier this month when he said that if the inflation data surprised to the downside the MPC would need to be “more activist”.
  • On the Budget side, most of the measures should be finalised this week as the OBR will send two forecasting rounds to the Chancellor – round 4 on Tuesday and round 5 on Friday ahead of the publication of the Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) alongside the Budget on Wednesday 30 October. We will release our full Budget preview later this week.
  • In terms of data, the subcomponents of the PMIs will be watched closely as the main data release remaining ahead of the BOE’s November MPR. We also receive CBI trends data and the GfK consumer confidence data this week.

For the full document including supply previews for the week ahead, click here: GiltWeekAhead20241021.pdf