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MNI Gilt Week Ahead - November 2, 2020

  • The Bank of England MPC decision, the US election and continuing Brexit talks will be the highlights for the gilt market in the week ahead. We will send out our full BOE preview later this week and ahead of the announcement at the weekend that England will be beginning a four week lockdown beginning on Thursday (albeit with education settings, supermarkets and click and collect retail staying open) 21/33 analysts in the Bloomberg survey saw a GBP100bln or more increase in QE to be announced this week. 7/33 analysts expected a GBP50-75bln increase and just 5/33 analysts expected no increase in QE at all at this meeting.
  • Brexit negotiations will continue this week, initially in the UK, with a Bloomberg sources piece saying that a compromise deal on fisheries could be close to being solved. On the data front this week the only highlights are the final readings of the PMIs which will probably see the flash readings revised a bit lower as the narrative on Covid continued to deteriorate after the initial flash survey period was closed.
  • Note that the DMO announced some changes to the schedule of remit and calendar updates for the remainder of the year. First, the DMO will consult on and then announce the gilt auction calendar for December 2020 ahead of 25 November – the exact timetable for the consultation and calendar release are still to be confirmed. Second, the Chancellor's 2020 Spending Review will be held on 25 November accompanied by the updated OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook and DMO financing remit for the remainder of 2020/21. After these events, the DMO will announce at 15:30GMT on the same day the agenda for the consultation calls with investors and GEMMS. These calls will now take place on Monday 30 November (instead of the original date of Monday 23 November). Finally, the calendar for January-March 2021 gilt operations will then be announced on Friday 4 December at 7:30GMT. Note that all of these events will be included in the key events timetable on page 4 of the document.
See the link below for the full document including auction previews, QE tracker and BOE purchase analysis, cash flow matrix and issuance calendar.

GiltWeekAhead02112020.pdf

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