MNI Gilt Week Ahead - October 19, 2020

• Brexit negotiations are likely to continue in the coming week and any new developments will be watched closely by markets with both Johnson and Macron keeping a very hard line (at least in public) and Merkel striking a more conciliatory tone. A Bloomberg sources story this morning has suggested that the Internal Market bill could be "watered down" to reinvigorate talks with the EU and repair trust.
• There are also a number of potentially interesting data points on the calendar. Friday will probably be the key with both retail sales for September and the October PMI and GfK consumer confidence surveys due to be released. Inflation and public sector finance data will be released on Wednesday but both are less important than both activity and survey data (with the exception of inflation for the linker market).
• In terms of MPC speakers this week, we will hear from six MPC members. Perhaps most noteworthy will be the speeches by Vlieghe on Tuesday entitled "Assessing the Health of the Economy" and Ramsden on Wednesday who speaks on "UK Monetary Policy: Issues and Outlook". Headlines from appearances of Broadbent and Cunliffe (both Monday) and Haldane and Bailey (both Thursday) will be watched, but any interest is likely to be focused in Q&A than in the main text.

GiltWeekAhead19102020.pdf