MNI Global Morning Briefing

     LONDON (MNI) - Quality not Quantity

     Wednesday's calendar whilst small in terms of volume contains within it

some key releases in both the UK and US.

     Starting us off is France 0630GMT with their BoF Business Survey for March.

February's data saw a drop in the services sentiment indicator from January to

103 from 104. The manufacturing indicator remained unchanged from January and

stood at 105 in February.

     Next is Italy, with their February retail sales data. January growth

declined by 0.5% m/m and 0.8% y/y on a seasonally adjusted basis, with the index

figure at 100.3

     Moving swiftly to 0930 sees two important releases in the UK of its Trade

Balance and Industrial Production, and Quarterly Construction Output in

February. Analysts anticipate m/m growth of construction output to recover from

a prior of -3.4% to 0.7%. However, this anticipated growth is not expected to

revive y/y growth with a forecasted drop expected of -2.5% against prior y/y

growth of -3.9%.

     The UK's trade deficit is expected to narrow slightly off the back of lower

oil prices and a favourable pound still having a net effect on trade. After a

previous January deficit of stg3.1 billion, analyst forecasts suggest a

narrowing of the deficit to stg2.6 billion. The visible trade is expected to

narrow by stg0.3 billion to stg12 billion in February.

     The afternoon sees the US take over, starting with their MBA weekly

applications index at 1100GMT. Previous week's figures saw growth of -3.3%.

     The CPI (1230GMT)is expected to come in flat in March following an

as-expected 0.2% rise in February. A decline in March 2017 due to falling cell

phone prices may lead to a rise in the year/year rate for both overall and core

CPI. For March, AAA reported a decrease in mid-month prices from February, which

could hold back gasoline prices in the CPI data. The core CPI is forecast to

rise 0.2% following an unsurprising 0.2% increase in February.

     Shortly after this at 1400GMT is the Atlanta Fed Inflation Index for March

after a relatively slow increase in February of 2.1% on an annualized basis,

down from a 3.7% increase in January.

     Into the evening at 1800GMT sees the FOMC minutes from the Federal

Reserve's 20-21st March meeting and the Treasury Budget. The US Treasury is

expected to post a $187 billion deficit in March, wider than the $176.2 billion

deficit posted in March 2017. There are calendar issues with both March 2017 and

March 2018, as April 1 transfer payments were shifted into March, boosting

outlays.

     New Zealand and Australia finish off a quantity low calendar

     New Zealand's March Electronic card transactions (2245GMT) showed previous

growth in February of 0.1% Shortly after this at 2300GMT, RBNZ Asst Gov John

McDermott will deliver a speech titled "Inflation targeting in New Zealand: an

experience in evolution."

     Concluding in Australia is the Melbourne Institute Inflation Expectations

Survey at 0100GMT, followed up with monthly Housing finance at 0130GMT. Owner

occupied housing in January grew at a -1.1% and February's data is expected by

analysts to show growth of -0.8%.

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com