MNI Global Morning Briefing

     LONDON (MNI) - The day starts at 0800GMT when Italy releases their March

Industrial Production data. The prior readings came in at -0.5% m/m and 2.5%

y/y.

     At 0830GMT the UK release its output data. The trade balance, industrial

production and construction output prints for the month of March are all set for

release. Analysts expect the trade deficit to widen from stg10.2bln in February

to stg11.1bln in March. Industrial production is seen at a steady 0.1% m/m.

However, construction is expected to continue its poor run of form and decline

by 2.3% m/m compared to the -1.6% seen in February.

     The Bank of England's monetary policy decision will hit at 1100 GMT. Weak

data released over the last two weeks has led to almost every analyst expecting

the BOE to keep rates unchanged at 0.5% with the majority pointing to a 7-2

vote, while the amount of government and corporate bond purchases under the

Bank's QE programme is expected to remain unchanged at stg435bln and stg10bln

respectively. The BOE's quarterly inflation report is likely to show a downward

revision to the Bank's 2018 GDP projection.

     US CPI will cross at 1230GMT and is seen rising to 0.3% m/m in April

following a surprise 0.1% decline in March. The y/y rates should stabilize or

even decline modestly after a run up in March due to base effects. For April,

AAA reported a modest gain in mid-month prices vs. March, which could support a

rebound in CPI via gasoline prices after March's decline. The core CPI is

forecast to rise by 0.2% m/m following a similar increase in the previous month.

     The level of initial jobless claims (1230GMT) is expected to post a further

increase in the week to May, with analysts looking for the reading to rise by

9,000 to 220,000 after a 2,000 increase in the previous week that kept claims

very near a multi-decade low. The four-week moving average would fall by 3,250

in the coming week as the 233,000 level in the April 7 week drops out of the

calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no revisions.

This would set another new 45-year record if it is realized.

     Also at 1230GMT is the Canadian New Housing Price Index. Previous

year-on-year growth stood at 2.6%.

     Overnight, the focus switches to Asia.

     Chinese money supply, new loans and total social financing data may hit on

Thursday or Friday. Analysts are pencilling in M2 y/y growth of 8.5%, against a

prior 8.2%. New loans are expected to increase slightly from CNY1.12bln to CNY

1.15bln. Total social financing is expected to decline by CNY0.03bln to

CNY1.30bln.

     Finishing up in Australia at 0130GMT is the Housing finance monthly data.

     Housing finance on a month-on month basis is expected to deteriorate from a

prior -0.2% to -2.0%.

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com