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MNI Global Morning Briefing

MNI (London)
     LONDON (MNI) - The European calendar is starting early at 0600GMT, when the
flash GDP in Germany will be released. Quarter on quarter GDP is expected to
fall slightly from a prior 0.6% to 0.4%. Previously, year on year GDP was at
2.9%. 
     Next up is France with their HICP and CPI figures and non-farm payrolls at
0645GMT. Previously, month-on-month and year-on-year HICP stood at 0.1% and 1.8%
respectively. Non-farm payrolls previously had quarter-on-quarter and
year-on-year growth of 0.3% and 1.1% respectively. 
     The UK have a very quiet data week ahead but provide one important release
in the form of the UK Labour Report at 0830GMT. A prior February unemployment
rate of 4.2% is not expected by analysts to change, whereas total earnings is
expected to decline slightly from a 3m/3m y/y growth rate of 2.8% in February to
2.7% in March. Excluding bonuses however tells a different story with core
average weekly earnings expected to increase from a 3m y/y growth rate of 2.8%
in February to 2.9% in March. This is likely incorporating December's impressive
bonus growth not a part of the three month growth for March. 
     Germany are next at 0900GMT with the ZEW current conditions index. The
prior index value was at 87.9. Also at 0900GMT is the ZEW current expectations
index. After a previous index value of -8.2, analyst estimate the current index
value to deteriorate to -9.3. However, analysts do have a past of
over-estimating this number, suggesting it could be worse than -9.3. 
     At the same time, the Euro Area Industrial Production and quarterly GDP
data is released. After a previous m/m industrial production of -0.8%, analysts
anticipate April to grow by 0.7%. Prior y/y industrial production grew at 2.9%.
Quarterly GDP is anticipated to remain at its prior flash quarter growth rate of
0.4%. 
     Dallas Federal Reserve President Rob Kaplan will speak in New York, America
at 1200GMT. 
     Retail sales (1230GMT) are forecast to rise by further 0.3% in April after
a strong 0.6% gain in March. Seasonally adjusted industry motor vehicle sales
slipped in April, but AAA reported that gasoline prices rose sharply in
mid-April from one month earlier. Retail sales are expected to rise 0.6%
excluding motor vehicles after 0.2% gains in the previous two months. The impact
of the Federal income tax cuts and stronger consumer confidence may finally
appear in the data.
     In Canada, home sales at 1300GMT previously grew at 1.3%. 
     Business inventories (1400GMT) are expected to rise 0.1% in March. Factory
inventories were already reported as up 0.3% in the month, while wholesale
inventories rose 0.3%. The advance report showed a 0.4% decline for retail
inventories. Taken together, an MNI calculation looks for a 0.1% increase for
business inventories, so the median forecast suggests analysts little revision
to retail inventories. As for sales, factory shipments rose 0.4%, wholesale
sales rose 0.3% and the advance estimate for retail trade sales was a 0.6% gain,
suggesting a 0.4% rise for business sales, assuming no revision to the retail
trade sales increase.
     The Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs will conduct a
hearing at 1400GMT on the nomination of Richard Clarida to be Vice Chairman of
the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington.
     At 1710GMT San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams will
speak at the Economic Club in Minnesota, Minneapolis. 
     At 2350GMT, Japan release their GDP data. Quarter on quarter GDP is
forecast at 0% after previously growing at 0.4%
     Australia have their consumer sentiment index at 0030GMT which previously
had an index value of 102.4. Finishing off at 0130GMT is their quarterly wage
price index release. The index is expected to grow at the same pace at both a
y/y and q/q rate that it did the previous quarter at 2.1% and 0.6% respectively.
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3828; email: jai.lakhani@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com