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MNI Global Morning Briefing

MNI (London)
     LONDON (MNI) - Sentiment drives Thursday morning's data session, with the
majority of European releases linked to business and consumer confidence
indicators. The afternoon again sees little to report on.
     Starting bright and early in Germany at 0600GMT is the GFK Consumer
Climate. A previous index read of 10.7 is expected to drop slightly to 10.5.
     Next up is Spain at 0700GMT with flash HICP data and retail sales. HICP y/y
was previously 2.1% and retail sales was previously 0.5%.
     Finishing off the confidence indicators is the Euro Area with its business
and consumer survey at 0900GMT. Industrial sentiment was previously 6.8 units,
whilst consumer confidence was 0.2. The Business Climate Indicator was 1.45.
Also at 0900GMT is the EZ Economic Sentiment Indicator. The previous reading of
112.5 is anticipated by analysts to drop to 112.0.
     Through the morning, German state inflation data will be published.
     Closing the morning is Italy and Germany with their flash HICP data at
0900GMT and 1200GMT respectively. Italy's HICP y/y was previously 1.0% and
Germany's was 2.2%.
     Over to the States and 1230GMT sees a double release of data, with the
level of initial jobless claims and Q1 GDP expected.
     The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise by 2,000 to 220,000
in the June 23 week after falling by 3,000 to 218,000 in the previous week,
keeping the level in its tight range. The four-week moving average would fall by
only 750 in the coming week as the 223,000 level in the May 26 week drops out of
the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are no
     First quarter GDP is expected to be unrevised at 2.2%, while the chain
price index is expected to be unrevised at 1.9%, so there should be little
attention paid to the data unless there is a large revision. Instead, analysts
are already focused on the second quarter, when growth is expected to rebound,
as usual.
     Payroll employment in Canada is also at 1230GMT with y/y average weekly
earnings previously growing 3.1%. Shortly after this release at 1330GMT BOC
Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri speaks in Ottawa. He also speaks again in the
same venue at 1530GMT.
     The late afternoon sees two speeches at 1445GMT and 1530GMT. The first is
by St.Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard speaking in St. Louis.
     Finishing the calendar at 2301GMT is the Gfk monthly consumer confidence
for June. After a prior improvement of the figure to -7 in May from -9 in April,
analyst do not anticipate any further improvement in June with median estimates
suggesting an unchanged figure of -7.
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email:
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 |