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MNI Global Morning Briefing

MNI (London)
     LONDON (MNI) - Friday sees a busier calendar than usual, with the non-farm
payrolls in the US the stand out event. 
     The calendar starts at 0545GMT with Swiss unemployment for August. The
unemployment rate in July was 2.6%. 
     German labour costs for the second quarter, industrial production and trade
for July are next at 0600GMT. The q/q rate for labour costs in Q1 was 1%. The
m/m growth rate for industrial production was -0.9% in June and is expected at
0.3% for July. The trade balance in Germany for the month of June was EUR 19.3
bn. 
     In France, foreign trade, current account and industrial production for the
month of July is at 0645GMT. The foreign trade balance for June was EUR 6.2 bn
whereas the current account had a deficit of EUR 2.3 bn. Industrial production
is expected by the MNI median to grow by 0.2% m/m in July from a June prior of
0.6%. 
     Spain finishes off the industrial production data at 0700GMT. The prior
June y/y growth rate was 0.5%. 
     At 0800GMT, in Italian is retail sales for July cross the wires. The
previous y/y growth rate was 1.5% for the month of June. 
     Next up is the second quarter GDP final estimate in the EU. The flash
estimate of 0.4% q/q is not expected to see any change in the final reading,
according to the MNI median. 
     The calendar gets busy at the 1230GMT slot with the main event of the day
at this time, a speaker and data from Canada. 
     Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 195,000 in August after a
weaker-than-expected 157,000 rise in July. The unemployment rate is expected to
fell further to 3.8% after dipping to 3.9% in July. Hourly earnings are forecast
to rise 0.2% after a 0.3% gain, while the average workweek is expected to hold
steady at 34.5 hours.
     Over the last 10 years of forecasts for August payrolls, there were nine
misses to the high side (seen as negatives in the graph below) that averaged
34,110 and only one 36,000 miss to the low side. With high misses in August in
each of the last seven years, and 19 of the last 20 years, there is a strong
case for a second straight high-miss with this month's data following the weak
July print.
     Boston Federal Reserve President Eirc Rosengren speaks at 1230GMT in
Boston. 
     Also at 1230GMT is Canada's employment data for August. The unemployment
rate is not expected to change from July's prior at 5.8%. 
     Up next, at 1300GMT, Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester
speaks in Boston. 
     After that hectic timetable, the calendar cools off and comes back at
1720GMT with Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Rob Kaplan speaking in Texas.
     At some point on the Saturday, China will release their trade balance data
for the month of August. The July prior had a trade balance of USD 28.05 bn. 
     Boston's Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren speaks also on
Saturday at 1445GMT in Boston. 
     Either on a Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday, China release their money supply,
new loans and total social financing data for the month of August. The previous
month of July saw M2 ytd y/y growth of 8.5%, new loans at CNY 1.45 tn and social
financing at CNY 1.04 tn. 
     On a Sunday evening at 2350GMT is Japan's Q2 GDP data. The previous q/q
growth rate in Q1 of 0.5% is expected to tick up to 0.7% for Q2. 
     Closing a very hectic calendar at 0130GMT on a Monday morning is China with
their CPI and PPI data for August. July had y/y growth of 2.1% and 4.6% for CPI
and PPI respectively. 
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
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