MNI Global Morning Briefing

     LONDON (MNI) - After Monday's slow start, the calendar starts moving in the

right direction as data releases in Italy, Germany and the UK in the morning are

followed up with the US and Canada in the afternoon and Japan and Australia

later in the evening.

     Italy kick off the calendar with their final HICP figures at 0800GMT for

March. February saw figures of 2.5% m/m and 1.1% y/y.

     Next up at 0830GMT and arguably a very important piece of data for Tuesday

is the UK's Labour Report for February. January saw real earnings finally move

out of negative territory after being so for nine months, (depending on

Wednesday's March CPI figures).

     Whilst January saw neutral real earnings, February could see positive real

earnings with analyst anticipating average weekly earnings including bonuses to

increase from a 3m/3m y/y growth rate of 2.8% in January to 3.1% in February.

This is combined with unemployment expected to remain unchanged from January at

4.3%.

     Moving to Germany at 0900GMT sees the release of the ZEW Current Conditions

Index and Current Expectations Index. March saw a strong current conditions

index figure of 90.7. This was in direct contrast with the current expectations

figure which dipped from 17.8 to 5.1 and is anticipated to analysts to decrease

further in April to -3.0.

     The seasonally adjusted pace of U.S. housing starts (1230GMT) is expected

to accelerate modestly to a 1.262 million annual rate in March after sharp

movements in the previous two months. The NAHB index slipped to 70 in March from

71 in February, so there is some downside risk.

     At the same time is a double release from Canada of their Transactions in

Securities and Monthly Survey of Manufacturing. Transaction in securities stood

at CAD 5.7 billion in January. Manufacturing sales is expected by analysts to

recoup some of its prior 1.0% losses with an anticipated growth in sales of

0.6%.

     The IMF release their World Economic Outlook at 1300GMT which should

provide more detailed analysis of the IMF's current viewpoint on the health of

the global economy.

     US Industrial production (1315GMT) is expected to rise 0.3% in March after

a revised 0.9% surge in the previous month. Factory payrolls rose by 22,000 in

March, while auto production jobs rose by 3,000 and the factory workweek was

mildly shorter at 40.9 hours, down from 41.0 hours in February.

     The ISM production index fell to a still strong 61.0 in the current month

from 62.0 in the previous month. Utilities production is expected to rebound in

the month after a decline in the previous month due to warmer-than-usual

weather, while mining production is forecast to post a more modest gain after a

February surge. Capacity utilization is forecast to rise to 77.9% from 77.7% in

January. Annual revisions released on March 23 are included in the data.

     For those awake at 2350GMT can tune into Japan's trade balance data.

Japan's trade surplus in February of JPY 3 billion was a 99.6% reduction from

the surplus in February last year. Consequently, the March trade balance is

expected by analysts to pick up with a surplus of JPY 440 billion expected.

     The Westpac-MI Index which is a leading indicator in Australia is released

at 0030GMT. February's index value was at 98.05.

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com