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MNI Global Morning Briefing

MNI (London)
     LONDON (MNI) - After Monday's slow start, the calendar starts moving in the
right direction as data releases in Italy, Germany and the UK in the morning are
followed up with the US and Canada in the afternoon and Japan and Australia
later in the evening.
     Italy kick off the calendar with their final HICP figures at 0800GMT for
March. February saw figures of 2.5% m/m and 1.1% y/y.
     Next up at 0830GMT and arguably a very important piece of data for Tuesday
is the UK's Labour Report for February. January saw real earnings finally move
out of negative territory after being so for nine months, (depending on
Wednesday's March CPI figures).
     Whilst January saw neutral real earnings, February could see positive real
earnings with analyst anticipating average weekly earnings including bonuses to
increase from a 3m/3m y/y growth rate of 2.8% in January to 3.1% in February.
This is combined with unemployment expected to remain unchanged from January at
     Moving to Germany at 0900GMT sees the release of the ZEW Current Conditions
Index and Current Expectations Index. March saw a strong current conditions
index figure of 90.7. This was in direct contrast with the current expectations
figure which dipped from 17.8 to 5.1 and is anticipated to analysts to decrease
further in April to -3.0.
     The seasonally adjusted pace of U.S. housing starts (1230GMT) is expected
to accelerate modestly to a 1.262 million annual rate in March after sharp
movements in the previous two months. The NAHB index slipped to 70 in March from
71 in February, so there is some downside risk.
     At the same time is a double release from Canada of their Transactions in
Securities and Monthly Survey of Manufacturing. Transaction in securities stood
at CAD 5.7 billion in January. Manufacturing sales is expected by analysts to
recoup some of its prior 1.0% losses with an anticipated growth in sales of
     The IMF release their World Economic Outlook at 1300GMT which should
provide more detailed analysis of the IMF's current viewpoint on the health of
the global economy.
     US Industrial production (1315GMT) is expected to rise 0.3% in March after
a revised 0.9% surge in the previous month. Factory payrolls rose by 22,000 in
March, while auto production jobs rose by 3,000 and the factory workweek was
mildly shorter at 40.9 hours, down from 41.0 hours in February.
     The ISM production index fell to a still strong 61.0 in the current month
from 62.0 in the previous month. Utilities production is expected to rebound in
the month after a decline in the previous month due to warmer-than-usual
weather, while mining production is forecast to post a more modest gain after a
February surge. Capacity utilization is forecast to rise to 77.9% from 77.7% in
January. Annual revisions released on March 23 are included in the data.
     For those awake at 2350GMT can tune into Japan's trade balance data.
Japan's trade surplus in February of JPY 3 billion was a 99.6% reduction from
the surplus in February last year. Consequently, the March trade balance is
expected by analysts to pick up with a surplus of JPY 440 billion expected.
     The Westpac-MI Index which is a leading indicator in Australia is released
at 0030GMT. February's index value was at 98.05.
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email:
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 |