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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
The main data events Wednesday include the release of German retail sales figures at 0700GMT followed by the EZ unemployment rate at 1000GMT. In the US the publication of the ADP National Employment Report at 1315GMT is noteworthy.
German retail sales expected to rise
German retail sales are forecast to rise by 1.1% in October after declining by 2.2% in the previous month. However, sales were 2.8% higher in September than in February, despite the decline. While the second lockdown might weigh on spending, shops were allowed to remain open in November in the run-up to Christmas. Hence sales are likely to remain in positive territory. Nevertheless, retail trade sentiment eased in November according to the European Commission's economic sentiment indicator.
EZ October unemployment rate forecast to rise
The EZ unemployment rate is projected to rise marginally to 8.4% in October, up from 8.3% in September. The jobless rate remained relatively stable during the pandemic due to the different government schemes to support the labour market. The unemployment rate rose gradually from 7.2% recorded in March to 8.3% seen in September. Among the member states, Spain saw the highest jobless rate at 16.5% in September, while the Netherlands and Germany recorded the lowest figures. Survey evidence suggests a decline in employment. The flash EZ composite PMI noted an increase in job losses in both the manufacturing and service sector in November.
ADP Employment Change seen higher
The ADP National Employment Report registered an increase in private-sector employment by 365,000 in October, which is less than half the amount seen in September. Midsized companies saw the largest gain employment in October. The service providing sector recorded the largest increase in new jobs, up 348,000 compared to the goods producing sector which saw employment only rise by 17,000. In November, markets expect another uptick in employment by 500,000. Survey evidence suggests mixed signals. The ISM manufacturing PMI fell in November, mainly on the back of a decline of employment, while the IHS flash composite PMI noted a sharp increase in employment.
The main events to look out for are speeches by ECB's Philip Lane, Fed's John Williams, Randal Quarles, Patrick Harker and Jay Powell as well as BOE's Jonathan Haskell.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.