Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
The main European data event to follow on Thursday in Europe is the publication of the French business climate indicator at 0745GMt. At 1245GMT the ECB's interest rate decision will be closely watched before the focus turns to US initial jobless claims at 1330GMT.
French business climate forecast to edge higher
French business climate bounced back strongly in December after November's dip. The indicator rose 12pt to 91 in December and markets look for the second successive uptick in January, although only by 1pt to 92 which would be the highest level since September. Similar to other surveys, firms are less pessimistic about expected activity in the coming months, while their opinion regarding recent activity fell especially in the services and retail trade industry in connection with the lockdown. The situation regarding the pandemic in France remains serious with infection rates still elevated and a tighter curfew introduced last week.
ECB seen on hold
Following the boost for the PEPP in December, along with a host of other measures, it is a near certainty that the Governing Council will be on hold Thursday. President Lagarde's press conference will focus on how she will address the relative strength of the euro, the December/January lockdowns and the sluggish roll-out of the vaccine program across the EU.
ECB Interest rates - source: ECB
US jobless claims seen slowing
U.S. initial jobless claims filed through January 16 are expected to fall to 830,000 from 965,000 through January 6. The latest surge in Covid-19 infections has led to renewed business restrictions and shutdowns, triggering more layoffs. Some UI recipients have had to reapply for regular benefits in recent weeks after state programs were paused while federal programs lapsed, which should push initial claims higher in the coming weeks.
US continuing claims - source: Bloomberg
The events calendar remains quiet on Thursday with the only highlights being the press conference following the ECB's interest rate decision.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.