MNI GLOBAL MORNING BRIEFING: UK GDP Seen Slowing

It is a shortened trading week for may ahead of the Easter holiday, but central banks remain to the fore, with the Bank of Canada, Bank of Korea, RBNZ and ECB all meeting this week. UK short-term indicators are the standout on Monday.

UK GDP To Slow In February (0700 BST)

UK gross domestic product expanded by just 0.3% in February, according to City analysts, a marked slowdown from the unexpectedly-strong 0.8% growth recorded in January.

However, weakness in the auto industry suggest a downside risk to those forecasts, with car production — which comprises approximately one tenth of the manufacturing sector — falling by 10% in February. Economists have pencilled in a 0.4% rise in factory output, down from the 0.8% increase in January.

Automobile sales — which comprise a chunky portion of the service sector — plunged by 49% in February, while retail sales declined by 0.3% over the month, which could keep the sector under pressure. Analysts forecast a 0.2% increase, following an 0.8% burst in the opening month of the year.

The February GDP data may be regarded as a bit of ancient history, largely covering activity before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the dominance of cost-of-living crisis headlines, which could well dampen sentiment in the months to come.

Norway CPI seen higher (0700BST)

Norwegian inflation is expected to come in higher again in March, with expectations for a rise to 5.0% y/y from 3.7% in February. Core inflation is also expected to rise, seen at 2.4% after 2.1% previously.

The Norges Bank is already well on the path of policy tightening on the back of higher prices, with the policy rate now at 0.75% and expected to rise to 1.0% in May.

No ECB speakers are expected Monday ahead of the policy meeting on Thursday. However, plenty of Fed speakers are expected, including Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, NY Fed President John Williams, Chicago Fed's Charles Evans and Fed Governors Chris Waller and Michelle Bowman.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
11/04/2022	0600/0800	*		NO	CPI Norway
11/04/2022	0600/0700	**		UK	UK Monthly GDP
11/04/2022	0600/0700	**		UK	Trade Balance
11/04/2022	0600/0700	***		UK	Index of Production
11/04/2022	0600/0700	**		UK	Output in the Construction Industry
11/04/2022	0600/0700	**		UK	Index of Services
11/04/2022	1330/0930			US	Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic
11/04/2022	1330/0930			US	Fed Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller
11/04/2022	1500/1100	**		US	NY Fed survey of consumer expectations
11/04/2022	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
11/04/2022	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
11/04/2022	1600/1200			US	New York Fed's John Williams
11/04/2022	1640/1240			US	Chicago Fed's Charles Evans
11/04/2022	1700/1300	***		US	US Note 03 Year Treasury Auction Result