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The main data event in Europe Tuesday is the publication of the UK's CBI distributive trades survey at 1100BST. The highlights in term of data releases in the US is the durable goods orders at 1330BST, followed by consumer confidence at 1500BST.
UK CBI retails seen slowing
CBI retail sales are expected to ease in July to 20, after rising to 25 in June. Nevertheless, this would mark the fourth consecutive positive reading, following six months of declines. CBI sales in June grew at the fastest pace since November 2016 with grocers reporting sales above seasonal levels. Home improvement stores noted high demand as well, while clothing sales remained poor.
June's survey noted that sales are expected to remain above seasonal levels in July. The continued reopening and better weather in July, should provide a boost to sales in the coming month. Additionally, the major purchases index of the Gfk consumer confidence survey surged by 7 points in July, which bodes well with retail sales.
US durable goods orders forecast to decelerate
New orders for manufactured durable goods increased by 2.3% in May after dropping by 0.8% in the previous month. The index was up 12 out of the last 13 months, according to the Census Bureau. Excluding transportation, orders increased by 0.3%. In June, markets expect durable goods orders to increase by 2.1%, while excluding transport orders are projected to tick up by 0.8%. June's IHS composite PMI saw new orders ease slightly, however they remained at a historically high level.
Source: US Census Bureau
US consumer confidence expected to edge lower
US consumer sentiment increased further in June, after posting monthly gains in the previous four months as well. The index now stands at 127.3 and markets expect it to fall to 124.3 in July. Both the present situations index and the expectations index improved in June, while inflation expectations ticked up as well. The preliminary Michigan consumer sentiment index is in line with market forecasts, showing a decline to 80.8 in July.
The events calendar remains quiet on Tuesday with no speeches scheduled for the day.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.