MNI Global Morning Briefing: US September Sales Seen Slower

Early European trade sees the release of final French and Italian inflation data, although no change is expected on the flash readings. The main release will undoubtedly be the U.S. September retail sales data.

US Retail Sales to slow from August levels (1330 BST)

Retail sales likely dipped in September, with market analysts forecasting a decline of 0.3% following August's 0.7% gain. September's decrease will mostly be linked to falling vehicle sales as limited inventories held back buying in the new and used markets, as highlighted in the latest MNI Reality Check. Some weakness should also come from restaurant receipts as demand softened due to the spread of the Delta variant of Covid-19.

Analysts say the expiration of federal unemployment benefits in early September isn't likely to have significantly impacted spending through the month as wages increased and consumers still had ample savings to draw from.

Excluding vehicle sales, retail sales should increase 0.5% in September after August's much stronger 1.8% gain. Control group sales are expected to increase 0.4% after rising 2.5% in August.

The only policymaker slated to talk Friday is NY Fed President John Williams, although other comments are likely through the day as the WB/IMF meetings continue in Washington DC.