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MNI Global Morning Calendar

MNI (London)
     LONDON (MNI) - Friday follows the weekly theme in the calendar of a busy
morning and a muted afternoon. The data also appears to come in batches with
Germany and France's early triple release and then UK's quadruple release later
in the morning.
     Germany's triple release of retail sales, ILO employment and
imports/exports prices leads the way at 0600GMT. Retail sales previously grew
y/y by 1.2%. The ILO employment change previously stood at 35 units. The export
and import price index y/y rose previously by 0.7% and 0.6% respectively.
     The next triple release is from France at 0645GMT with their consumer
spending, flash HICP and PPI data. Consumer spending y/y previously grew 0.2%.
The HICP y/y had a previous reading of 2.3% and the PPI y/y was previously 2.3%
also.
     Switzerland's KOF Economic Barometer previously had a reading of 100 and is
expected at 0700GMT.
     Back to Germany and the GLO Labour Market statistics is out at 0755GMT with
the unemployment rate previously at 5.2%.
     ECB President Mario Draghi participates in a European Council meeting in
Brussels at 0800GMT.
     The Continent hands the baton over to the UK at 0830GMT who take over the
reigns with BOE Lending to Individuals Data, Quarterly Current Account Balance,
UK GDP Final estimate and Index of Services data.
     The lending to individuals data is expected to paint a fairly negative
picture with mortgage approvals expected to drop a touch from 62,500 to 62,400.
Net lending on dwellings sees more of a noted fall from stg3.9 bn to stg3.7 bn.
Net consumer credit is also expected to fall from stg1.8 bn to stg1.5 bn.
     The quarterly current account expectation is more upbeat with a further
narrowing of the current account deficit from stg18.4 bn to 17.7bn. The final
estimate of Q1 GDP is not expected to see any changes from the second estimate
with growth for the quarter anticipated at 0.1%.
     On a more positive note, the Index of Services data for April is expected
to see a bounce back from March where it grew only by 0.1%. The MNI median
suggests m/m growth of 0.3% for the month of April.
     The Euro Area is next at 0900GMT with the flash inflation estimate. MNI
median estimates show the y/y figure at the ECB's target of 2.0%, up a touch
from the previous 1.9%.
     Next up is Canada in the afternoon at 1230GMT with their GDP by Industry
and Industrial Product and Raw Material Price Index at 1230GMT. Month on month
GDP is forecasted to drop to 0% after previous growth of 0.3%. Raw material
prices and industrial product prices previously grew by 8.9% and 2.4% y/y
respectively.
     Personal income in the US (also at 1230GMT) is expected to rise by 0.4% in
May, as payrolls rose 223,000 and hourly earnings rose 0.3%, while average
weekly hours stayed at 34.5 hours. Current dollar PCE is forecast to rise by
0.4% after a 0.6% April gain. Total retail sales jumped by 0.8% in the month and
were up 0.9% excluding a 0.5% gain in motor vehicle sales. Retail sales
excluding autos, gas, building materials and food services were still up 0.5%,
indicating underlying strength. The core PCE price index is expected to post
another 0.2% increase in May, so the y/y rate could move up to 1.9%, very close
to the 2% target rate.
     The MNI Chicago PMI (1345GMT) is expected to fall back to a reading of 60.1
in June after rising to 62.7 in May. Other regional data already released were
mixed, with the Empire reading up and the Philadelphia index down.
     The Michigan Sentiment index (1400GMT)is expected to be unrevised from the
99.3 preliminary estimate.
     On Saturday at 0100GMT is CFLP manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI in
China. The manufacturing PMI was previously at 51.9 whereas the
non-manufacturing was at 54.9.
     Finishing the calendar off is Japan, Australia and China late Sunday
evening and early Monday morning. At 2350GMT is manufacturing data from Japan
with the major manufacturing diffusion index forecasted to drop a prior index
reading of 24 to 22. The CoreLogic home value index in Australia at 0000GMT
previously fell m/m by 0.1%.
     Lastly, at 0145GMT is the Caixin manufacturing PMI in China. The previous
PMI reading was 51.1.
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
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