MNI Global Week Ahead - Bank of Canada and EZ Flash PMIs
MNI (LONDON) - See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets next week:
THROUGH THE WEEK - IMF Annual Meetings
Global leaders will converge in Washington, D.C. at the World Bank / IMF Annual Meetings between Oct 21-24. In addition to the usual release of the IMF's latest Fiscal and Economic Outlooks, the event will include government officials such as finance ministers and central bankers alike - with multiple events held in and around the meetings. Appearing at the meetings and associated events in the US (Washington and elsewhere) in the upcoming week will be numerous central bankers including the ECB's Lagarde, Lane, Centeno, Cipollone, Knot, Holzmann, Panetta, Rehn, Kazaks and Villeroy; BOE's Bailey, Mann, Greene and Breeden; and others including RBNZ's Orr, Norges Bank's Wolden Bache and the SARB's Kganyago. MNI's policy journalists will be in Washington for insight from the sidelines.
MONDAY - PBoC LPR Decision
China's Loan Prime Rate is expected to be reduced by 20-25 basis points next Monday following the People’s Bank of China’s 20bp cut to its key 7-day reverse repo rate last month, which will help guide down mortgage rates and reduce borrowing costs to shore up domestic demand. PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng unexpectedly unveiled strong easing measures at the end of September as part of the country’s efforts to boost the economy, revealing a 20bp cut to the 7-day reverse repo rate to 1.5% from 1.7%, the biggest reduction since 2021. Pan noted the reduction would guide down the LPR by 20-25bp and see the medium term lending facility fall by 30bp.
TUESDAY - NBH Decision
New guidance from Deputy Governor Virag stepped up the hawkish messaging from the National Bank of Hungary, with the latest comments all but ruling out a rate cut at the next meeting on October 22. The central bank cut the key base rate by 25bps to 6.5% last month following an easing cycle which has spanned more than a year, with only a brief pause in August. Given the rally in EUR/HUF to and above 400, further cuts before year-end had already largely been priced out.
WEDNESDAY - BoC Decision
The Bank of Canada is increasingly expected to dial up the pace of rate cuts with a 50bp cut on Wednesday. There has been a raft of analyst view changes after soft inflation data and market pricing has increased to as much as 45bps by some measures. We think it is a closer decision between a 25bp or 50bp cut, but narrowly go with a 50bp cut this month with the market presenting an opportunity to step rates closer to higher estimates of neutral rates and also trim elevated real rates. Gov Macklem has previously not been concerned about divergence in Canadian and US monetary policy but fresh multi-year lows for Can-US 2Y swap rates at below -80bps could increasingly weigh on deliberations. If it does opt for a 50bp cut, the challenge will be in containing expectations for a second 50bp cut in December to avoid excessive CAD depreciation.
THURSDAY - Eurozone October Flash PMIs
The October flash PMI round is due on Thursday, with French, German and Eurozone-wide figures to be released. The September flash PMIs were weaker than expected for both services and manufacturing, and were the first of a string of datapoints that drove the ECB to cut rates in October. Analysts currently forecast the Eurozone manufacturing PMI to remain subdued at 45.3 (vs 45.0 prior) and services to ease for a second month to 51.2 (vs 51.4 prior). The composite PMI is seen at the neutral 50.0 level (vs 49.6 prior). Small upticks are seen across components in France and Germany. Markets will be sensitive to the releases, with stronger-than-expected prints likely to temper expectations for a 50bp cut in December (OIS markets currently assign 30% implied probability of such an outcome).
Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
21/10/2024 | 0400/0500 | GB | BOE Greene's opinion piece in Financial times | |
21/10/2024 | 0600/0800 | ** | DE | PPI |
21/10/2024 | - | EU | ECB's Lagarde and Cipollone participate in IMF/World Bank Meetings | |
21/10/2024 | 1255/0855 | US | Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan | |
21/10/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
21/10/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
21/10/2024 | 1700/1300 | US | Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari | |
21/10/2024 | 2105/1705 | US | Kansas City Fed's Jeff Schmid | |
22/10/2024 | 0600/0700 | *** | GB | Public Sector Finances |
22/10/2024 | 0900/1000 | * | GB | Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result |
22/10/2024 | 1230/0830 | * | CA | Industrial Product and Raw Material Price Index |
22/10/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index |
22/10/2024 | 1255/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
22/10/2024 | 1325/1425 | GB | BOE's Bailey address at Bloomberg Global Regulatory Forum | |
22/10/2024 | 1345/1445 | GB | BOE's Greene fireside chat with Josh Lipsky | |
22/10/2024 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | Richmond Fed Survey |
22/10/2024 | 1400/1600 | EU | ECB's Lagarde in conversation with Francine Lacqua | |
22/10/2024 | 1500/1700 | EU | ECB's Lane in fireside chat at Seminar of Bank of New York | |
22/10/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill |
22/10/2024 | 1915/2115 | EU | ECB's Large in panel discussion on cross border payments | |
22/10/2024 | 2000/2200 | EU | ECB's Lane at Columbia University seminar | |
22/10/2024 | 2015/2115 | GB | BOE's Breeden panellist at G20 cross-border payments event | |
23/10/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
23/10/2024 | 1100/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
23/10/2024 | - | EU | ECB's Lagarde and Cipollone in G20 FMs and CB Governors meeting | |
23/10/2024 | 1300/1400 | GB | BOE's Breeden panellist at IIF meeting | |
23/10/2024 | 1300/0900 | US | Fed Governor Michelle Bowman | |
23/10/2024 | 1345/0945 | CA | BOC Monetary Policy Report | |
23/10/2024 | 1345/0945 | *** | CA | Bank of Canada Policy Decision |
23/10/2024 | 1400/1600 | ** | EU | Consumer Confidence Indicator (p) |
23/10/2024 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | NAR existing home sales |
23/10/2024 | 1400/1600 | EU | ECB's Lane participates in growth talk at IIF Meeting | |
23/10/2024 | 1400/1600 | EU | ECB's Lagarde Speech at Atlantic Council event | |
23/10/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
23/10/2024 | 1430/1030 | CA | BOC Governor Press Conference | |
23/10/2024 | 1430/1630 | EU | ECB's Cipollone in panel by Bretton Woods Committee | |
23/10/2024 | 1600/1200 | US | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin | |
23/10/2024 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond |
23/10/2024 | 2030/2130 | GB | ECB's Bailey at IIF meeting | |
24/10/2024 | 2200/0900 | *** | AU | Judo Bank Flash Australia PMI |
24/10/2024 | 0030/0930 | ** | JP | Jibun Bank Flash Japan PMI |
24/10/2024 | 0645/0845 | ** | FR | Manufacturing Sentiment |
24/10/2024 | 0715/0915 | ** | FR | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
24/10/2024 | 0715/0915 | ** | FR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
24/10/2024 | 0730/0930 | ** | DE | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
24/10/2024 | 0730/0930 | ** | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
24/10/2024 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Services PMI (p) |
24/10/2024 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p) |
24/10/2024 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Composite PMI (p) |
24/10/2024 | 0830/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash |
24/10/2024 | 0830/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global Services PMI flash |
24/10/2024 | 0830/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global Composite PMI flash |
24/10/2024 | 1000/1100 | ** | GB | CBI Industrial Trends |
24/10/2024 | - | EU | ECB's Lagarde and Cipollone in G20 FMs and CB governors meeting | |
24/10/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
24/10/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
24/10/2024 | 1245/0845 | US | Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack | |
24/10/2024 | 1300/1400 | GB | BOE's Mann panellist at Reinventing Bretton Woods session | |
24/10/2024 | 1345/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Manufacturing Index (Flash) |
24/10/2024 | 1345/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Services Index (flash) |
24/10/2024 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | New Home Sales |
24/10/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
24/10/2024 | 1500/1100 | ** | US | Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index |
24/10/2024 | 1700/1900 | EU | ECB's Lane remarks at 'Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics' event | |
24/10/2024 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 5 Year Note |
25/10/2024 | 2301/0001 | ** | GB | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
25/10/2024 | 2330/0830 | ** | JP | Tokyo CPI |
25/10/2024 | 0600/0800 | ** | SE | PPI |
25/10/2024 | 0645/0845 | ** | FR | Consumer Sentiment |
25/10/2024 | 0700/0900 | ** | ES | PPI |
25/10/2024 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | M3 |
25/10/2024 | 0800/1000 | ** | IT | ISTAT Business Confidence |
25/10/2024 | 0800/1000 | ** | IT | ISTAT Consumer Confidence |
25/10/2024 | 0800/1000 | *** | DE | IFO Business Climate Index |
25/10/2024 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | ECB Consumer Expectations Survey |
25/10/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | CA | Retail Trade |
25/10/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Durable Goods New Orders |
25/10/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | CA | Retail Trade |
25/10/2024 | 1300/1500 | ** | BE | BNB Business Sentiment |
25/10/2024 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers |
25/10/2024 | 1500/1100 | CA | Finance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected) | |
26/10/2024 | 1520/1620 | GB | BOE's Bailey panellist at G30 Banking Seminar |