Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MONDAY / WEDNESDAY - US ISM Surveys
Early consensus for the coming week's US March ISM Manufacturing (Monday April 1) and Services (Weds April 3) reports point to a slight uptick in activity in both sectors versus February (48.4 for manufacturing, up 0.6 points; 52.8 for services, up 0.2 points). This would continue the theme of mixed results at the start of the year, with below-consensus readings in February following strong beats in January. Regional Federal Reserve Banks' surveys released already have shown unexpectedly weak manufacturing in March, and while the MNI Chicago Business Barometer fell 2.6 points in March to 41.4, the pullback wasn't as dramatic when using the national ISM weights. As for Services, ISM chair Anthony Nieves told MNI in an interview following February's data that in spite of the weaker Services figures, the new orders component warrants optimism about continued moderate growth in the sector, but he acknowledged that activity has been volatile in recent months.
WEDNESDAY - Eurozone March Flash Inflation
Eurozone inflation is seen relatively steady in March, with analyst consensus for headline HICP at 2.5% Y/Y (vs 2.6% prior) and core at 3.0% (3.1% prior). As the ECB Governing Council consensus appears to be converging on a first rate cut at the June meeting, incoming inflation data is taking heightened focus. The recent trajectory in underlying HICP has seemingly been disinflationary enough to satisfy even ardent hawks that further progress could warrant a cut by mid-year. The March inflation round's most closely-watched quirk will be the early arrival of the Easter holiday weekend. This calendar effect is expected to primarily, and temporarily, impact services prices to the upside. While the consensus is that this will translate a positive effect on inflation via services (with a 5th consecutive 4.0% services reading potentially on the cards), which will reverse in April, some analysts see uncertainty both ways, with potential for downside misses as well. At a country level, we have already had data from Spain, which was a touch below consensus. The Italian and French prints are due to be released on Friday March 29, before Germany comes on Tuesday April 2.
THURSDAY - NBP Decision
The National Bank of Poland is unanimously expected to keep rates unchanged at 5.75% on Thursday. Last month, the MPC expressed concern with risks to the inflation outlook, which remain tilted firmly to the upside. Although Governor Adam Glapiński declared that inflation is probably back to the +2.5% Y/Y target, he stressed that heightened uncertainty prevents the Council from resuming interest-rate action.
THURSDAY - BCCh Decision
Latest central bank survey data suggest that the BCCh may slow the easing pace in April and cut the overnight rate by 75bp to 6.50%. Large inflation surprises since the last meeting, an increase in inflation expectations and a more cautious Fed stance are among the factors supporting the case for a moderation in the pace of rate cuts. However, forecasters remain divided, with some expecting another 100bp move.
FRIDAY - US Labour Market Data
The US Employment Report for March is expected to show a month-on-month moderation in jobs growth that will maintain what Fed Chair Powell this month characterized as a "relatively tight" labor market, but one in which "supply and demand conditions continue to come into better balance". Nonfarm payrolls growth is expected to pull back to 216k (vs 275k prior, 265k 3-month average), with private payrolls at 178k (223k prior). Revisions will as always closely be eyed, following sizeable downgrades to prior months in February's report. Average hourly earnings are seen picking up to 0.3% M/M (0.1% prior), on steady average weekly hours (34.3). The unemployment rate is seen pulling back to 3.8% from the unexpected uptick from 3.7% to 3.9% in Feb, the highest in over 2 years - and will be eyed in the context of the end-year projection of 4.0% pencilled in by the median FOMC participant in March.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 31/03/2024 | 0130/0930 | *** |  | CN | CFLP Manufacturing PMI |
| 31/03/2024 | 0130/0930 | ** | | CN | CFLP Non-Manufacturing PMI |
| 01/04/2024 | 2350/0850 | *** |  | JP | Tankan |
| 01/04/2024 | 0030/0930 | ** | | JP | S&P Global Final Japan Manufacturing PMI |
| 01/04/2024 | 0145/0945 | ** | | CN | S&P Global Final China Manufacturing PMI |
| 01/04/2024 | 1345/0945 | *** |  | US | S&P Global Manufacturing Index (final) |
| 01/04/2024 | 1400/1000 | *** | | US | ISM Manufacturing Index |
| 01/04/2024 | 1400/1000 | * | | US | Construction Spending |
| 01/04/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** |  | CA | BOC Business Outlook Survey |
| 01/04/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 01/04/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 02/04/2024 | 2200/0900 | ** |  | AUS&P Global | Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 02/04/2024 | 2301/0001 | * |  | UK | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 02/04/2024 | 0030/1130 | | AU | RBA Meeting Minutes | |
| 02/04/2024 | 0630/0830 | ** |  | CH | Retail Sales |
| 02/04/2024 | 0715/0915 | ** |  | ES | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 02/04/2024 | 0745/0945 | ** |  | IT | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 02/04/2024 | 0750/0950 | ** |  | FR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 02/04/2024 | 0755/0955 | ** |  | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 02/04/2024 | 0800/1000 | *** | | DE | Bavaria CPI |
| 02/04/2024 | 0800/1000 | *** | | DE | North Rhine Westphalia CPI |
| 02/04/2024 | 0800/1000 | ** |  | EU | ECB Consumer Expectations Survey |
| 02/04/2024 | 0800/1000 | ** | | EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 02/04/2024 | 0830/0930 | ** | | UK | BOE M4 |
| 02/04/2024 | 0830/0930 | ** | | UK | BOE Lending to Individuals |
| 02/04/2024 | 0830/0930 | ** | | UK | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final) |
| 02/04/2024 | 1200/1400 | *** | | DE | HICP (p) |
| 02/04/2024 | - | *** | | US | Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales |
| 02/04/2024 | 1255/0855 | ** | | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 02/04/2024 | 1400/1000 | ** | | US | Factory New Orders |
| 02/04/2024 | 1400/1000 | *** | | US | JOLTS jobs opening level |
| 02/04/2024 | 1400/1000 | *** | | US | JOLTS quits Rate |
| 02/04/2024 | 1530/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill |
| 02/04/2024 | 1600/1200 | | US | Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester | |
| 02/04/2024 | 1600/1200 | | US | New York Fed's John Williams | |
| 02/04/2024 | 1730/1330 | | US | San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly | |
| 03/04/2024 | 0700/0300 | * |  | TR | Turkey CPI |
| 03/04/2024 | 0900/1100 | *** | | EU | HICP (p) |
| 03/04/2024 | 0900/1100 | ** | | EU | Unemployment |
| 03/04/2024 | 1100/0700 | ** | | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 03/04/2024 | 1215/0815 | *** | | US | ADP Employment Report |
| 03/04/2024 | 1400/1000 | *** | | US | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index |
| 03/04/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 03/04/2024 | 1600/1200 | | US | Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee | |
| 04/04/2024 | 0030/1130 | * | | AU | Building Approvals |
| 04/04/2024 | 0630/0830 | *** | | CH | CPI |
| 04/04/2024 | 0830/0930 | | UK | BOE's Decision Maker Panel Data | |
| 04/04/2024 | 0900/1100 | ** | | EU | PPI |
| 04/04/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** | | UK | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 04/04/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | | US | Jobless Claims |
| 04/04/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 04/04/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | | US | Trade Balance |
| 04/04/2024 | 1230/0830 | ** | | CA | International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance) |
| 04/04/2024 | 1400/1000 | | US | Philly Fed's Pat Harker | |
| 04/04/2024 | 1430/1030 | ** | | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 04/04/2024 | 1615/1215 | | US | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin | |
| 04/04/2024 | 1645/1245 | | US | Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee | |
| 04/04/2024 | 1800/1400 | | US | Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester | |
| 04/04/2024 | 2320/1920 | | US | St Louis Fed's Alberto Musalem | |
| 05/04/2024 | 0030/1130 | ** | | AU | Trade Balance |
| 05/04/2024 | 0600/0800 | ** | | DE | Manufacturing Orders |
| 05/04/2024 | 0600/0800 | ** | | DE | Import/Export Prices |
| 05/04/2024 | 0645/0845 | * | | FR | Industrial Production |
| 05/04/2024 | 0700/0900 | ** | | ES | Industrial Production |
| 05/04/2024 | 0830/1030 | ** | | EU | S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI |
| 05/04/2024 | 0830/0930 | ** | | UK | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI |
| 05/04/2024 | 0900/1100 | ** | | EU | Retail Sales |
| 05/04/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | | US | Employment Report |
| 05/04/2024 | 1230/0830 | *** | | CA | Labour Force Survey |
| 05/04/2024 | 1400/1000 | * | | CA | Ivey PMI |
| 05/04/2024 | 1700/1300 | ** | | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 05/04/2024 | 1900/1500 | * | | US | Consumer Credit |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.