Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
TUESDAY / THURSDAY - EUROZONE DECEMBER PMIs
The final readings for the December manufacturing and services PMIs come on Tuesday and Thursday respectively. The Eurozone flash composite print came in weaker than expected at 47.0 (44.1 for manufacturing and 48.1 for services) following soft readings from France and Germany. The German flash PMI came across as stagflationary, with output charges rising but demand and employment remaining weak. In France, inflationary pressures softened overall, but wage pressures remained within the services sector. Key interest will lie in the Spanish and Italian prints, for which there is no flash release to guide expectations.
WEDNESDAY - FOMC MINUTES
The FOMC minutes for the Dec 12-13 meeting will be keenly watched for further details around the Fed’s perceived pivot. Recall that every element of the Dec FOMC communications was more dovish than expected, spurring one of the biggest post-decision downward rate repricings and US dollar sell-offs in years. The forecast rate cuts in the Dot Plot were slightly dovish versus expectations (4.6% end-24 dot vs 4.9% most had expected), and the Statement made it surprisingly clear that the Fed is done hiking with Chair Powell then offering little push back on market rate cut expectations. With the market currently flittering either side of fully pricing a first cut in March and six 25bp cuts priced for 2024, the perception of less consensus around cutting in the near term could dent these expectations.
FRIDAY - EUROZONE DECEMBER FLASH INFLATION
Friday sees the release of the December round of Eurozone flash inflation data. Current consensus sees headline HICP at 3.0% Y/Y (VS 2.4% prior) and 0.2% M/M (vs -0.6% prior). As always, focus will be on the core components, with analysts forecasting 3.4% Y/Y (vs 3.6% prior). A continued softening in services and non-energy industrial goods inflation will be needed to help justify current ECB rate cut pricing. Data from Spain and Portugal have already been released - with the former coming in a touch lower than expectations - though alone are unlikely to have driven meaningful changes to Eurozone-wide estimates. The expected uptick in the headline rate comes as base effects wear off further in December - in particular due to a bounce back in German energy prices after subsidies depressed prices in December 2022. The German flash release comes on Thursday, with state-level data in the morning.
FRIDAY - US LABOUR MARKET REPORT
The payrolls report for December should offer the first read absent of notable strike impact for a few months, with consensus currently looking for NFP growth of 168k. With public sector job creation again expected to offer a sizeable contribution, the private sector is seen adding 128k for a similar pace to its six-month average. Both unemployment rate and AHE metrics are seen pulling back from November’s hawkish readings. The unemployment rate is seen at 3.8% to reverse some of the prior surprise push lower (exaggerated on a rounded basis as it fell from 3.88 to 3.74%) on what had been particularly strong household survey employment. AHE growth meanwhile is seen at 0.3% M/M after 0.35% M/M in Nov in what was another print with the non-supervisory sector growing faster than the overall measure.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 31/12/2023 | 0130/0930 | *** |  | CN | CFLP Manufacturing PMI |
| 31/12/2023 | 0130/0930 | ** | | CN | CFLP Non-Manufacturing PMI |
| 02/01/2024 | 2200/0900 | ** |  | AU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 02/01/2024 | 0001/0001 | * |  | UK | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 02/01/2024 | 0145/0945 | ** | | CN | S&P Global Final China Manufacturing PMI |
| 02/01/2024 | 0815/0915 | ** |  | ES | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 02/01/2024 | 0845/0945 | ** |  | IT | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 02/01/2024 | 0850/0950 | ** |  | FR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 02/01/2024 | 0855/0955 | ** |  | DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 02/01/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** |  | EU | M3 |
| 02/01/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** | | EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 02/01/2024 | 0930/0930 | ** | | UK | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final) |
| 02/01/2024 | 1445/0945 | *** |  | US | S&P Global Manufacturing Index (final) |
| 02/01/2024 | 1500/1000 | * | | US | Construction Spending |
| 02/01/2024 | 1630/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 02/01/2024 | 1630/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 02/01/2024 | 1800/1300 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill |
| 03/01/2024 | 0855/0955 | ** | | DE | Unemployment |
| 03/01/2024 | 1200/0700 | ** | | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 03/01/2024 | - | *** | | US | Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales |
| 03/01/2024 | 1330/0830 | | US | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin | |
| 03/01/2024 | 1355/0855 | ** | | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 03/01/2024 | 1500/1000 | *** | | US | ISM Manufacturing Index |
| 03/01/2024 | 1500/1000 | *** | | US | JOLTS jobs opening level |
| 03/01/2024 | 1500/1000 | *** | | US | JOLTS quits Rate |
| 03/01/2024 | 1900/1400 | *** | | US | FOMC Rate Decision |
| 04/01/2024 | 0030/0930 | ** |  | JP | S&P Global Final Japan Manufacturing PMI |
| 04/01/2024 | 0745/0845 | *** | | FR | HICP (p) |
| 04/01/2024 | 0930/0930 | ** | | UK | BOE Lending to Individuals |
| 04/01/2024 | 0930/0930 | ** | | UK | BOE M4 |
| 04/01/2024 | 0930/0930 | | UK | BOE's Monthly Decision Maker Panel data | |
| 04/01/2024 | 1000/1000 | ** | | UK | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 04/01/2024 | 1300/1400 | *** | | DE | HICP (p) |
| 04/01/2024 | 1315/0815 | *** | | US | ADP Employment Report |
| 04/01/2024 | 1330/0830 | *** | | US | Jobless Claims |
| 04/01/2024 | 1530/1030 | ** | | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 04/01/2024 | 1600/1100 | ** | | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 05/01/2024 | 0700/0800 | ** | | DE | Retail Sales |
| 05/01/2024 | 0830/0930 | ** | | EU | S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI |
| 05/01/2024 | 0930/0930 | ** | | UK | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI |
| 05/01/2024 | 1000/1100 | *** | | EU | HICP (p) |
| 05/01/2024 | 1000/1100 | ** | | EU | PPI |
| 05/01/2024 | 1000/1100 | *** | | IT | HICP (p) |
| 05/01/2024 | 1330/0830 | *** |  | CA | Labour Force Survey |
| 05/01/2024 | 1330/0830 | *** | | US | Employment Report |
| 05/01/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** | | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 05/01/2024 | 1500/1000 | *** | | US | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index |
| 05/01/2024 | 1500/1000 | * | | CA | Ivey PMI |
| 05/01/2024 | 1500/1000 | ** | | US | Factory New Orders |
| 05/01/2024 | 1800/1300 | ** | | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
| 05/01/2024 | 1830/1330 | | US | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin |
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.