MNI Global Week Ahead - EZ Inflation, US PCE and EM Decisions

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY/FRIDAY - EM CENTRAL BANK DECISIONS

APAC: Next week, the Bank of Thailand meets where a Bloomberg survey sees a +25bp hike expected, which would take the policy rate to 2.50%. It has said the policy rate had not quite reached neutral, where the BOT wants it to be.

CEEMEA: The NBH are widely expected to cut the one-day deposit rate by 100bps, converging it to the 13% base rate which is seen unchanged. Beyond this juncture, expectations are less certain with NBH officials having pledged to simplify their monetary policy toolkit. The CNB is universally expected to keep the policy rate unchanged after Governor Michl effectively ruled out cuts in September or October. However, policymakers may already debate the strategies for future monetary easing.

LATAM: Banxico will keep the overnight rate at 11.25% as core inflation remains stubbornly above target. In Colombia, despite the finance minister continuing to advocate for a rate cut, headline and core inflation above 11.00% should prompt another unchanged decision, keeping the overnight lending rate at 13.25%.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY - EUROZONE SEPTEMBER FLASH INFLATION

The preliminary inflation round for September on Thursday and Friday is expected to see a sharp slowdown in Eurozone aggregate HICP following the removal of strong base effects and statistical factors which kept Y/Y readings underpinned through the summer. Early indications of economists' expectations point to a wide range of potential outcomes, centred on a 4.8% Y/Y core reading for the euro area (5.3% Aug), with headline of 4.5% (5.2% Aug). Also of note will be divergence in Y/Y dynamics between member states, including an expected acceleration in French and Spanish inflation offset by a sharp slowdown in German price pressures.

FRIDAY - US AUGUST PCE

The August PCE report on Friday sees the median analyst look for 0.2% M/M for the core PCE deflator in the still early days of the survey sample. Note though that at typing it doesn’t include some of the detailed post-CPI and PPI estimates from some large US banks pointing to a potentially slightly softer reading. It follows two months at 0.22/0.21% M/M, although non-housing core services have been running notably hotter including a 0.46% M/M in July. Barring revisions, an inline increase would see core PCE inflation slow to 2.5% on a 3-month annualized basis or a more limited moderation to 3.2% on a 6-month basis, time periods Chair Powell noted at Wednesday's press conference.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
25/09/2023	0700/0900	**		ES	PPI
25/09/2023	0800/1000	***		DE	IFO Business Climate Index
25/09/2023	1000/1100	**		UK	CBI Distributive Trades
25/09/2023	1300/1500	**		BE	BNB Business Sentiment
25/09/2023	1300/1500			EU	ECB's Lagarde speaks at ECON Hearing
25/09/2023	1300/1500			EU	ECB's Schnabel speaks at JHvT Lecture
25/09/2023	1430/1030	**		US	Dallas Fed manufacturing survey
25/09/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
25/09/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
25/09/2023	2200/1800			US	Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari
26/09/2023	0600/0800	**		SE	PPI
26/09/2023	0700/0900			EU	ECB's Lane speaks at CEPR conference
26/09/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index
26/09/2023	1255/0855	**		US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
26/09/2023	1300/0900	**		US	S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
26/09/2023	1300/0900	**		US	FHFA Home Price Index
26/09/2023	1300/0900	**		US	FHFA Home Price Index
26/09/2023	1400/1000	***		US	New Home Sales
26/09/2023	1400/1000	***		US	Conference Board Consumer Confidence
26/09/2023	1400/1000	**		US	Richmond Fed Survey
26/09/2023	1430/1030	**		US	Dallas Fed Services Survey
26/09/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill
26/09/2023	1700/1300	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Note
26/09/2023	1730/1330			US	Fed Governor Michelle Bowman
27/09/2023	0130/1130	***		AU	CPI Inflation Monthly
27/09/2023	0600/0800	*		DE	GFK Consumer Climate
27/09/2023	0600/1400	**		CN	MNI China Liquidity Survey
27/09/2023	0645/0845	**		FR	Consumer Sentiment
27/09/2023	0700/0900	**		SE	Economic Tendency Indicator
27/09/2023	0800/1000	**		EU	M3
27/09/2023	0900/1000	**		UK	Gilt Outright Auction Result
27/09/2023	1100/0700	**		US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
27/09/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Durable Goods New Orders
27/09/2023	1430/1030	**		US	DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
27/09/2023	1530/1130	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Floating Rate Note
27/09/2023	1700/1300	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 5 Year Note
28/09/2023	0530/0730	***		DE	North Rhine Westphalia CPI
28/09/2023	0700/0900	***		ES	HICP (p)
28/09/2023	0800/1000	**		IT	ISTAT Business Confidence
28/09/2023	0800/1000	**		IT	ISTAT Consumer Confidence
28/09/2023	0800/1000	***		DE	Baden Wuerttemberg CPI
28/09/2023	0800/1000	***		DE	Bavaria CPI
28/09/2023	0900/1100	**		EU	EZ Economic Sentiment Indicator
28/09/2023	0900/1100	**		IT	PPI
28/09/2023	0900/1100	***		DE	Saxony CPI
28/09/2023	0930/1030			UK	BoE's Hauser Speaks at MNI
28/09/2023	1200/1400	***		DE	HICP (p)
28/09/2023	1230/0830	***		US	Jobless Claims
28/09/2023	1230/0830	**		US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
28/09/2023	1230/0830	*		CA	Payroll employment
28/09/2023	1230/0830	***		US	GDP
28/09/2023	1300/0900			US	Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee
28/09/2023	1400/1000	**		US	NAR Pending Home Sales
28/09/2023	1430/1030	**		US	Natural Gas Stocks
28/09/2023	1445/1545			UK	BOE's Greene speaks on panel
28/09/2023	1500/1100	**		US	Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
28/09/2023	1700/1300	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 7 Year Note
28/09/2023	1700/1300			US	Fed Governor Lisa Cook
28/09/2023	1900/1500	***		MX	Mexico Interest Rate
28/09/2023	2000/1600			US	Fed Chair Jerome Powell
28/09/2023	2300/1900			US	Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin
29/09/2023	0600/0800	**		SE	Retail Sales
29/09/2023	0600/0700	***		UK	GDP Second Estimate
29/09/2023	0600/0700	*		UK	Quarterly current account balance
29/09/2023	0600/0800	**		DE	Retail Sales
29/09/2023	0600/0800	**		DE	Import/Export Prices
29/09/2023	0645/0845	***		FR	HICP (p)
29/09/2023	0645/0845	**		FR	PPI
29/09/2023	0645/0845	**		FR	Consumer Spending
29/09/2023	0700/0900	*		CH	KOF Economic Barometer
29/09/2023	0740/0940			EU	ECB's Lagarde speaks at IEA-ECB-EIB Conference
29/09/2023	0755/0955	**		DE	Unemployment
29/09/2023	0830/0930	**		UK	BOE M4
29/09/2023	0830/0930	**		UK	BOE Lending to Individuals
29/09/2023	0900/1100	***		EU	HICP (p)
29/09/2023	0900/1100	***		IT	HICP (p)
29/09/2023	-			UK	Publication of the Treasury bill calendar for October-December 2023.
29/09/2023	1230/0830	***		CA	Gross Domestic Product by Industry
29/09/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Personal Income and Consumption
29/09/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Advance Trade, Advance Business Inventories
29/09/2023	1400/1000	**		US	U. Mich. Survey of Consumers
29/09/2023	1500/1100			CA	Finance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected)
29/09/2023	1600/1200	**		US	USDA GrainStock - NASS
29/09/2023	1645/1245			US	New York Fed's John Williams
30/09/2023	0130/0930	***		CN	CFLP Manufacturing PMI
30/09/2023	0130/0930	**		CN	CFLP Non-Manufacturing PMI
30/09/2023	1400/1500			UK	BoE's Cunliffe Speaks in Leeds