MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD - EZ PMIs, RBA, NBP, RBI and NA JOBS

MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY - EZ PMIs

In the eurozone, final September PMIs for manufacturing and services will be released on Monday and Wednesday respectively. We have already received flash readings for France and Germany, all of which were below the expansionary 50-handle. For Spain and Italy, next week will provide the first insight into the September readings. Details on the demand conditions and inflationary pressures in each sector will be watched closely, particualrly following September's soft eurozone inflation print.

TUESDAY - RBA DECISION

The RBA is expected to remain on hold at 4.10%. Data since the September meeting has mixed. Headline inflation has ticked higher, with petrol prices likely to be a watch point for the RBA, while core pressures remain off cyclical highs. The labor market remains tight, but leading indicators suggest further cooling. Domestic demand in terms of consumer spending and housing activity will remain impacted by cumulative rate hikes. The RBA is still likely to leave the door ajar for another possible hike, given elevated services related inflation and poor productivity growth.

WEDNESDAY - NBP DECISION

The NBP are expected to deliver a 25bps cut to the 6% base rate, having surprised markets with a steeper-than-expected 75bp cut in September. Since that decision, Governor Glapinski has said “The room for further interest rate cuts has narrowed considerably.” His messaging and rhetoric on the potential for further easing will be critical for the PLN going forward.

FRIDAY - RBI DECISION

In India, The RBI are expected to keep the repurchase rate unchanged at 6.50%. However, the Bank will likely maintain its hawkish bias given the upside risks to inflation, however the bank will be taking the downside risks to inflation into account, with an anticipated spike in food prices now less likely after the return of monsoon rains.

FRIDAY - US AND CANADA LABOUR MARKET REPORTS

The US payrolls report for September is nominally scheduled for Friday although an increasing likelihood of a US government shutdown, this time including the Labor Department, would stop it from being published. In the event it does go ahead, payrolls growth is seen easing further to 165k from 187k, with the UAW auto workers’ strike likely offsetting the boost from returning Hollywood workers and the hit from Yellow Corp’s bankruptcy dropping out. The unemployment rate is seen dipping a tenth to 3.7% to unwind some of August’s surprise 0.3pp jump higher.

North of the border, the Canadian employment report for September is seen with further strong jobs growth in the region of 30k after a stronger than expected 40k in August. However, as latest population data have again reminded (Q2 registered the strongest Y/Y population growth since 1957), the unemployment rate will give a better gauge of broader labor market conditions to account for strong increases in labor supply. Here, consensus looks for a one tenth increase to 5.6% to continue its trend drift higher, consistent with job vacancies moderating further in the less timely SEPH report.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
30/09/2023	0130/0930	***		CN	CFLP Manufacturing PMI
30/09/2023	0130/0930	**		CN	CFLP Non-Manufacturing PMI
30/09/2023	1400/1500			UK	BoE's Cunliffe Speaks in Leeds
01/10/2023	0145/0945	**		CN	IHS Markit Final China Services PMI
01/10/2023	0145/0945	**		CN	IHS Markit Final China Manufacturing PMI
02/10/2023	2200/0900	**		AU	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)
02/10/2023	0030/0930	**		JP	IHS Markit Final Japan Manufacturing PMI
02/10/2023	0630/0830	**		CH	Retail Sales
02/10/2023	0700/0900			EU	ECB's de Guindos speaks at Foro Empresarial El Diario Vasco
02/10/2023	0715/0915	**		ES	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)
02/10/2023	0730/0930			SE	Riksbank monetary policy minutes
02/10/2023	0745/0945	**		IT	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f)
02/10/2023	0750/0950	**		FR	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)
02/10/2023	0755/0955	**		DE	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)
02/10/2023	0800/1000	**		EU	IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (f)
02/10/2023	0830/0930	**		UK	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final)
02/10/2023	0900/1100	**		EU	Unemployment
02/10/2023	1345/0945	***		US	IHS Markit Manufacturing Index (final)
02/10/2023	1400/1000	***		US	ISM Manufacturing Index
02/10/2023	1400/1000	*		US	Construction Spending
02/10/2023	1500/1600			UK	BOE's Mann speaks at Redburn/Rothschild event
02/10/2023	1500/1100			US	Fed Chair Jerome Powell
02/10/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
02/10/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
02/10/2023	1700/1300			US	Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr
02/10/2023	1730/1330			US	New York Fed's John Williams
03/10/2023	2301/0001	*		UK	BRC Monthly Shop Price Index
02/10/2023	2330/1930			US	Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester
03/10/2023	0030/1130	*		AU	Building Approvals
03/10/2023	0030/1130	**		AU	Lending Finance Details
03/10/2023	0330/1430	***		AU	RBA Rate Decision
03/10/2023	0610/0810			EU	ECB's Lane speaks at Annual Economics Conference
03/10/2023	0630/0830	***		CH	CPI
03/10/2023	0700/0300	*		TR	Turkey CPI
03/10/2023	0835/1035			EU	ECB's Lane participates in panel at Annual Economics Conference
03/10/2023	1145/0745			CA	BOC Deputy Nicolas Vincent speech in Montreal
03/10/2023	1200/0800			US	Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic
03/10/2023	1255/0855	**		US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
03/10/2023	1400/1000	**		US	IBD/TIPP Optimism Index
03/10/2023	1400/1000	**		US	JOLTS jobs opening level
03/10/2023	1400/1000	**		US	JOLTS quits Rate
03/10/2023	-	***		US	Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales
03/10/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill
03/10/2023	1530/1130	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill
04/10/2023	2200/0900	*		AU	IHS Markit Final Australia Services PMI
04/10/2023	0030/0930	**		JP	IHS Markit Final Japan Services PMI
04/10/2023	0715/0915	**		ES	S&P Global Services PMI (f)
04/10/2023	0745/0945	**		IT	S&P Global Services PMI (f)
04/10/2023	0750/0950	**		FR	IHS Markit Services PMI (f)
04/10/2023	0755/0955	**		DE	IHS Markit Services PMI (f)
04/10/2023	0800/1000	**		EU	IHS Markit Services PMI (f)
04/10/2023	0815/1015			EU	ECB's Lagarde speaks at ECB MP Conference
04/10/2023	0830/0930	**		UK	S&P Global Services PMI (Final)
04/10/2023	0900/1100	**		EU	PPI
04/10/2023	0900/1100	**		EU	Retail Sales
04/10/2023	0900/1000	**		UK	Gilt Outright Auction Result
04/10/2023	1100/0700	**		US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
04/10/2023	1140/1340			EU	ECB's de Guindos speaks at Cyprus CB Conference
04/10/2023	-			UK	BoE's Bailey Interview in Prospect Magazine
04/10/2023	1215/0815	***		US	ADP Employment Report
04/10/2023	1345/0945	***		US	IHS Markit Services Index (final)
04/10/2023	1400/1000	***		US	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
04/10/2023	1400/1000	**		US	Factory New Orders
04/10/2023	1400/1600			EU	ECB's Panetta speaks at ECB MP Conference
04/10/2023	1425/1025			US	Fed Governor Michelle Bowman
04/10/2023	1430/1030	**		US	DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
04/10/2023	1600/1800			EU	ECB's Lagarde speaks at Columbia University
05/10/2023	0030/1130	**		AU	Trade Balance
05/10/2023	0600/0800	**		DE	Trade Balance
05/10/2023	0645/0845	*		FR	Industrial Production
05/10/2023	0700/0900	**		ES	Industrial Production
05/10/2023	0730/0930	**		EU	IHS Markit Final Eurozone Construction PMI
05/10/2023	0830/0930			UK	BOE DMP Survey
05/10/2023	0830/0930	**		UK	IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI
05/10/2023	0945/1145			EU	ECB's Lane speaks at ECB MP Conference
05/10/2023	1230/0830	***		US	Jobless Claims
05/10/2023	1230/0830	**		US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
05/10/2023	1230/0830	**		CA	International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance)
05/10/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Trade Balance
05/10/2023	1300/0900			US	Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester
05/10/2023	1400/1000	*		CA	Ivey PMI
05/10/2023	1400/1600			EU	ECB's de Guindos speaks at ECB MP Conference
05/10/2023	1430/1030	**		US	Natural Gas Stocks
05/10/2023	1615/1215			US	Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr
06/10/2023	0545/0745	**		CH	Unemployment
06/10/2023	0600/0800	**		DE	Manufacturing Orders
06/10/2023	0645/0845	*		FR	Foreign Trade
06/10/2023	0800/1000	*		IT	Retail Sales
06/10/2023	1230/0830	***		CA	Labour Force Survey
06/10/2023	1230/0830	***		US	Employment Report
06/10/2023	1600/1200			US	Fed Governor Christopher Waller
06/10/2023	1900/1500	*		US	Consumer Credit