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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
The Federal Reserve's January policy decision will be the highlight of the week, with investors awaiting signals towards a March rate hike.
Bank of Canada faces inflation at 3-year high (Weds 1500 GMT)
The Bank of Canada could use the recent surge in prices rises, with inflation at 1 30-year high of 4.8%, to raise rates Wednesday, removing some of the rate cuts in place since the start of the reaction to the global pandemic in March 2020.
- Current guidance currently puts the focus on hikes in the 'middle quarters' of 2022, although markets are now pricing a greater than 50/50 chance of an earlier hike than the earliest suggested April.
- The benchmark rate is currently at 0.25%, with some analysts looking fir a total 1.75% of hikes in 2022, taking the rate to 2.0%.
- A recent Bank survey shows inflation expectations at a record high 4.89% -- further reason for policymaker unease.
- A surge is Omicron infections could offer pause to tightening signals as the BOC may see some downside risk -- although that could be balanced against the risk of higher inflationary pressures.
- Governor Tiff Macklem will speak following the decision, offering further clarity on the Bank's thinking.
Fed may signal March hike (Weds 1900GMT)
The Federal Reserve will likely leave policy unchanged Wednesday, although expectations are that the FOMC will now signal a first interest rate hike in the current cycle as early as March.
- Most analysts expect the Fed to signal a 25 bps hike in March, although there are some suggestions of a50 bps hike.
- Financial markets are currently pricing in a 25 bps hike in March and a total of 4 quarter-point increases this year.
- Like the BOC, Omicron is a variable, although downside risks to the economy are unlikely to be enough to stall the move to tighter policy.
- An immediate end to the Asset purchase programme is a wildcard possibility, but without any signaling from policymakers seems at best an outside chance.
Data forecasts for the current week can be found here:
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Flag | Country | Event |
| 24/01/2022 | 0815/0915 | ** |  | FR | IHS Markit Services PMI (p) |
| 24/01/2022 | 0815/0915 | ** | | FR | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 24/01/2022 | 0830/0930 | ** |  | DE | IHS Markit Services PMI (p) |
| 24/01/2022 | 0830/0930 | ** | | DE | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 24/01/2022 | 0900/1000 | ** |  | EU | IHS Markit Services PMI (p) |
| 24/01/2022 | 0900/1000 | ** | | EU | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (p) |
| 24/01/2022 | 0900/1000 | ** | | EU | IHS Markit Composite PMI (p) |
| 24/01/2022 | 0930/0930 | *** |  | UK | IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (flash) |
| 24/01/2022 | 0930/0930 | *** | | UK | IHS Markit Services PMI (flash) |
| 24/01/2022 | 0930/0930 | *** | | UK | IHS Markit Composite PMI (flash) |
| 24/01/2022 | 1445/0945 | *** |  | US | IHS Markit Manufacturing Index (flash) |
| 24/01/2022 | 1445/0945 | *** | | US | IHS Markit Services Index (flash) |
| 24/01/2022 | 1630/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 24/01/2022 | 1630/1130 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 24/01/2022 | 1800/1300 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Note |
| 25/01/2022 | 0030/1130 | *** |  | AU | CPI inflation |
| 25/01/2022 | 0700/0700 | *** | | UK | Public Sector Finances |
| 25/01/2022 | 0800/0900 | ** |  | ES | PPI |
| 25/01/2022 | 0900/1000 | *** | | DE | IFO Business Climate Index |
| 25/01/2022 | 1100/1100 | ** | | UK | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 25/01/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** | | US | Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index |
| 25/01/2022 | 1355/0855 | ** | | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 25/01/2022 | 1400/0900 | ** | | US | S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index |
| 25/01/2022 | 1400/0900 | ** | | US | FHFA Home Price Index |
| 25/01/2022 | 1400/1500 | ** |  | BE | BNB Business Sentiment |
| 25/01/2022 | 1500/1000 | *** | | US | Conference Board Consumer Confidence |
| 25/01/2022 | 1500/1000 | ** | | US | Richmond Fed Survey |
| 25/01/2022 | 1630/1130 | ** | | US | NY Fed Weekly Economic Index |
| 25/01/2022 | 1630/1130 | ** | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill |
| 25/01/2022 | 1800/1300 | * | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 5 Year Note |
| 26/01/2022 | 0700/0800 | ** |  | SE | PPI |
| 26/01/2022 | 0745/0845 | ** | | FR | Consumer Sentiment |
| 26/01/2022 | 1000/1000 | * | | UK | Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 26/01/2022 | 1200/0700 | ** | | US | MBA weekly applications index |
| 26/01/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** | | US | advance trade, advance business inventories |
| 26/01/2022 | 1500/1000 | *** |  | CA | Bank of Canada Policy Decision |
| 26/01/2022 | 1500/1000 | | CA | BOC Monetary Policy Report | |
| 26/01/2022 | 1500/1000 | *** | | US | new home sales |
| 26/01/2022 | 1530/1030 | ** | | US | DOE weekly crude oil stocks |
| 26/01/2022 | 1600/1100 | | CA | BOC Governor press conference after rate decision | |
| 26/01/2022 | 1630/1130 | ** | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Floating Rate Note |
| 26/01/2022 | 1900/1400 | *** | | US | FOMC Statement SEP |
| 27/01/2022 | 0030/1130 | ** | | AU | Trade price indexes |
| 27/01/2022 | 0700/0800 | * | | DE | GFK Consumer Climate |
| 27/01/2022 | 1100/1100 | ** | | UK | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 27/01/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** | | US | Jobless Claims |
| 27/01/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** | | US | durable goods new orders |
| 27/01/2022 | 1330/0830 | *** | | US | GDP (adv) |
| 27/01/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** | | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 27/01/2022 | 1330/0830 | * | | CA | Payroll employment |
| 27/01/2022 | 1500/1000 | ** | | US | NAR pending home sales |
| 27/01/2022 | 1530/1030 | ** | | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 27/01/2022 | 1800/1300 | ** | | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 7 Year Note |
| 28/01/2022 | 0630/0730 | ** | | FR | Consumer Spending |
| 28/01/2022 | 0630/0730 | *** | | FR | GDP (p) |
| 28/01/2022 | 0700/0800 | ** | | SE | Unemployment |
| 28/01/2022 | 0700/0800 | ** | | SE | Retail Sales |
| 28/01/2022 | 0700/0800 | *** | | SE | GDP |
| 28/01/2022 | 0700/0800 | * |  | NO | Norway Unemployment Rate |
| 28/01/2022 | 0700/0800 | ** | | DE | Import/Export Prices |
| 28/01/2022 | 0745/0845 | ** | | FR | PPI |
| 28/01/2022 | 0800/0900 | *** | | ES | GDP (p) |
| 28/01/2022 | 0900/1000 | ** |  | IT | ISTAT Consumer Confidence |
| 28/01/2022 | 0900/1000 | ** | | IT | ISTAT Business Confidence |
| 28/01/2022 | 0900/1000 | *** | | DE | GDP (p) |
| 28/01/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** | | US | Personal Income and Consumption |
| 28/01/2022 | 1330/0830 | ** | | US | Employment Cost Index |
| 28/01/2022 | 1500/1000 | *** | | US | Final Michigan Sentiment Index |
| 28/01/2022 | 1600/1100 | | CA | Finance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected) |
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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