MNI Global Week Ahead - Fed Minutes, RBNZ and EZ Inflation
MNI (LONDON) - See below for the key events in Developed and Emerging markets next week:
TUESDAY - FOMC November Meeting Minutes
The minutes to the November FOMC meeting (released Tuesday at 1400ET) will be viewed in light of the hawkish tilt in Fed officials’ commentary in the 3 weeks since they decided to cut rates by 25bp. A December cut is probably still just about the default scenario, but some of the groundwork for a less dovish rate cut path appears to have been laid since the US election, with inflation and activity data arguably less amenable to reducing policy restriction. Most focus in the minutes will therefore be on any discussion about the Committee’s thinking about a December cut, including whether (or not) the conveyed tone implies a high bar to holding rates. It’s possible that the discussion had already started to turn toward when and to what degree to slow the pace of cuts. Any consideration of the implications and causes of rising longer-term interest rates, or any preliminary discussion about ending quantitative tightening, would also be interesting - but don’t expect anything more than a cursory mention of the election and its implications for monetary policy.
WEDNESDAY - RBNZ Decision (New Zealand)
The RBNZ meets on November 27 and will provide an updated outlook and the decision will be followed by a press conference. It cut rates 50bp to 4.75% in October and with growth remaining weak and inflation close to the mid-point of the 1-3% target band another 50bp of easing is likely. There has been a little improvement in some survey data but employment is contracting and the economy is probably still in recession.
WEDNESDAY - US Q3 GDP Second Release / October PCE
Wednesday sees a pre-Thanksgiving US data deluge, highlighted by the second Q3 release for national accounts at a familiar 0830ET before the monthly PCE report for October at a more unusual 1000ET. At typing, Bloomberg consensus doesn’t see a reason to diverge from the 2.8% annualized for real GDP growth flagged in the advance release, another robust quarter after the 3.0% in Q2. Initial indications were that domestic demand played a greater role than was the case in Q2 (adding 3.6pps to quarterly GDP growth vs 2.8pps in Q2) and we’ll look to see if that’s still the case after revisions. We also watch for the first release of Gross Domestic Income in Q3. Recall that GDI growth had been notably lagging GDP growth before a large shift higher in the comprehensive revisions in September, something that multiple FOMC members have since noted. As for the monthly report, latest consumption momentum will as always be important along with developments in incomes and savings, whilst core PCE inflation estimates looked closer to 0.3% M/M in October after the 0.25% in September following CPI and PPI releases.
THURSDAY - BOK Decision (Republic of Korea)
We expect the BOK to cite currency concerns and hold rates at 3.25% next week following their cut at the October 11 meeting. In the period since, Korean data has been weakening with October exports down, CPI softening, Unemployment moving higher and Manufacturing PMI in contraction. There was one sign of positivity in the first 20 days of export data for November rebounded strongly. Consensus has built around the BOK being on hold next week as the currency is 4% weaker in the last three months. With rumours circling about a possible fiscal response to the weakening economy, we are inclined to think the BOK remains on hold next week to allow the currency to stabilize and the effects of the prior cut to flow through the economy.
THURSDAY / FRIDAY - Eurozone Flash November Inflation
The Eurozone flash November inflation round begins on Thursday with German and Spanish data, before the French, Italian and the Eurozone-wide prints on Friday. The data will be key in shaping consensus ahead of the ECB’s December 12 meeting, particularly after the weak November flash PMIs increased the OIS implied probability of a 50bp cut to ~50% from ~20% prior. Consensus sees Eurozone headline CPI inflation rising three tenths to 2.3% Y/Y on firmer core pressures (2.8% Y/Y cons vs 2.7% prior) and energy base effects. An increase headline inflation is already embedded within the ECB’s projections. The uptick in core inflation is expected to be partly driven by services base effects, after services prices fell 0.9% M/M in November 2023.
FRIDAY - Canada Q3 GDP
Friday’s GDP data is one of the last two major releases before the BoC decision on Dec 11, with the Q3 release plus monthly GDP data for September and the flash October estimate. The Nov jobs report follows on Dec 6. With 30bp of cuts priced for Dec 11, market expectations have drifted in favour of a 25bp cut from closer to a 50/50 call with a 50bp cut mid-month following stronger than expected core inflation, a fiscal stimulus package and solid details within retail sales data. The 0.3% M/M for real GDP in the September advance left Q3 GDP growth tracking at 1.0% annualized in the monthly data. There can be differences with the expenditure-based quarterly GDP data that the BoC forecasts, but nevertheless the Bloomberg consensus shows similar with 0.9% annualized compared to the downward revised 1.5% the BoC forecast for Q3 in its October MPR. Looking ahead, the October advance will also be important for an idea of momentum heading into Q4, for which the BoC is eyeing 2% annualized GDP growth.
Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
24/11/2024 | 2145/0845 | ** | NZ | Retail Sales |
25/11/2024 | 0800/0900 | ** | ES | PPI |
25/11/2024 | 0900/1000 | *** | DE | IFO Business Climate Index |
25/11/2024 | 0900/0900 | GB | BOE's Lombardelli At Watchers' Conference | |
25/11/2024 | 1030/1030 | GB | BOE's Dhingra At Watchers' Conference | |
25/11/2024 | 1330/0830 | * | CA | Quarterly financial statistics for enterprises |
25/11/2024 | 1400/1500 | ** | BE | BNB Business Sentiment |
25/11/2024 | 1530/1030 | ** | US | Dallas Fed manufacturing survey |
25/11/2024 | 1630/1730 | EU | ECB's Lane at BoE Watchers' Conference | |
25/11/2024 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
25/11/2024 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
25/11/2024 | 1800/1300 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill |
25/11/2024 | 1800/1300 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Note |
26/11/2024 | 0001/0001 | * | GB | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
26/11/2024 | 0700/0800 | ** | SE | PPI |
26/11/2024 | 1100/1100 | ** | GB | CBI Distributive Trades |
26/11/2024 | 1305/0805 | CA | BOC Deputy Mendes speech in PEI. | |
26/11/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index |
26/11/2024 | 1355/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
26/11/2024 | 1400/0900 | ** | US | S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index |
26/11/2024 | 1400/0900 | ** | US | FHFA Home Price Index |
26/11/2024 | 1400/0900 | ** | US | FHFA Home Price Index |
26/11/2024 | 1400/0900 | ** | US | FHFA Quarterly Price Index |
26/11/2024 | 1400/0900 | ** | US | FHFA Quarterly Price Index |
26/11/2024 | 1500/1000 | *** | US | New Home Sales |
26/11/2024 | 1500/1000 | *** | US | Conference Board Consumer Confidence |
26/11/2024 | 1500/1000 | ** | US | Richmond Fed Survey |
26/11/2024 | 1500/1500 | GB | BOE's Pill at Economic Affairs Committee | |
26/11/2024 | 1530/1030 | ** | US | Dallas Fed Services Survey |
26/11/2024 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill |
26/11/2024 | 1630/1130 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill |
26/11/2024 | 1800/1300 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 5 Year Note |
26/11/2024 | 1800/1300 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 2 Year Floating Rate Note |
26/11/2024 | 1900/1400 | *** | US | FOMC Minutes |
27/11/2024 | - | NZ | Reserve Bank of New Zealand Meeting | |
27/11/2024 | 0030/1130 | *** | AU | Quarterly construction work done |
27/11/2024 | 0030/1130 | *** | AU | CPI Inflation Monthly |
27/11/2024 | 0100/1400 | *** | NZ | RBNZ official cash rate decision |
27/11/2024 | 0700/1500 | ** | CN | MNI China Money Market Index (MMI) |
27/11/2024 | 0745/0845 | ** | FR | Consumer Sentiment |
27/11/2024 | 0930/1030 | * | DE | GFK Consumer Climate |
27/11/2024 | 1200/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
27/11/2024 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | GDP |
27/11/2024 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
27/11/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | Durable Goods New Orders |
27/11/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | Advance Trade, Advance Business Inventories |
27/11/2024 | 1445/0945 | *** | US | MNI Chicago PMI |
27/11/2024 | 1500/1000 | *** | US | Personal Income and Consumption |
27/11/2024 | 1500/1000 | ** | US | NAR Pending Home Sales |
27/11/2024 | 1530/1030 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
27/11/2024 | 1630/1130 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 7 Year Note |
27/11/2024 | 1700/1200 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
27/11/2024 | 1800/1900 | EU | ECB's Lane dinner remarks at conference on "Macroeconomic modelling frontiers for research and policy" | |
28/11/2024 | - | EU | European Central Bank Meeting | |
28/11/2024 | 0030/1130 | * | AU | Private New Capex and Expected Expenditure |
28/11/2024 | 0800/0900 | *** | ES | HICP (p) |
28/11/2024 | 0800/0900 | ** | SE | Economic Tendency Indicator |
28/11/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** | EU | M3 |
28/11/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** | IT | ISTAT Business Confidence |
28/11/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** | IT | ISTAT Consumer Confidence |
28/11/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** | IT | PPI |
28/11/2024 | 0900/1000 | *** | DE | North Rhine Westphalia CPI |
28/11/2024 | 0900/1000 | *** | DE | Bavaria CPI |
28/11/2024 | 1000/1100 | ** | EU | EZ Economic Sentiment Indicator |
28/11/2024 | 1000/1100 | * | EU | Consumer Confidence, Industrial Sentiment |
28/11/2024 | 1300/1400 | *** | DE | HICP (p) |
28/11/2024 | 1330/0830 | * | CA | Current account |
28/11/2024 | 1330/0830 | * | CA | Payroll employment |
28/11/2024 | 1700/1800 | EU | ECB's Lane speech at the 25th anniversary of Euro 50 Group at Banque de France | |
29/11/2024 | 2330/0830 | ** | JP | Tokyo CPI |
29/11/2024 | 2330/0830 | * | JP | Labor Force Survey |
29/11/2024 | 2350/0850 | * | JP | Retail Sales (p) |
29/11/2024 | 2350/0850 | ** | JP | Industrial Production |
29/11/2024 | 0700/0800 | ** | DE | Retail Sales |
29/11/2024 | 0700/0800 | ** | DE | Import/Export Prices |
29/11/2024 | 0700/0800 | ** | SE | Retail Sales |
29/11/2024 | 0700/0800 | *** | SE | GDP |
29/11/2024 | 0745/0845 | *** | FR | HICP (p) |
29/11/2024 | 0745/0845 | ** | FR | Consumer Spending |
29/11/2024 | 0745/0845 | *** | FR | GDP (f) |
29/11/2024 | 0745/0845 | ** | FR | PPI |
29/11/2024 | 0800/0900 | ** | CH | KOF Economic Barometer |
29/11/2024 | 0800/0900 | *** | CH | GDP |
29/11/2024 | 0855/0955 | ** | DE | Unemployment |
29/11/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** | EU | ECB Consumer Expectations Survey |
29/11/2024 | 0930/0930 | ** | GB | BOE M4 |
29/11/2024 | 0930/0930 | ** | GB | BOE Lending to Individuals |
29/11/2024 | 1000/1100 | *** | EU | HICP (p) |
29/11/2024 | 1000/1100 | *** | IT | HICP (p) |
29/11/2024 | 1030/1030 | GB | Financial Policy Summary and Record and Financial Stability Report | |
29/11/2024 | 1130/1230 | EU | ECB's de Guindos speaking at the "Encuentro de Economia" in Barcelona | |
29/11/2024 | 1330/0830 | *** | CA | GDP - Canadian Economic Accounts |
29/11/2024 | 1330/0830 | *** | CA | Gross Domestic Product by Industry |
29/11/2024 | 1330/0830 | *** | CA | CA GDP by Industry and GDP Canadian Economic Accounts Combined |
29/11/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
29/11/2024 | 1330/0830 | *** | CA | Gross Domestic Product by Industry |
29/11/2024 | 1600/1100 | CA | Finance Dept monthly Fiscal Monitor (expected) |