MNI Global Week Ahead May 17 - 21

Key Things to Watch:

• Wednesday, May 19 – UK Inflation
  • UK headline inflation likely jumped in April, pushed higher by a rise in domestic energy costs as price caps were raised along with strong upward pressure from base effects as year ago weak numbers drop out. The headline CPI is expected to rise sharply, hitting 1.4% y/y after 0.7% in March.
  • Although a doubling in the headline number, CPI is set to remain below the Bank of England's 2% target for a 22nd consecutive month.
• Core inflation is also expected to edge higher, albeit at a slower pace without the energy price increase impact

• Wednesday, May 19 – Canada CPI
  • It's Canada's turn to report breakaway inflation on comparisons to last year's plunge in gasoline prices. Companies in April also faced production bottlenecks and households went into a more severe third-wave lockdown than the U.S. or UK.
  • The CPI accelerated to a 3.1% pace in April from a year earlier according to Montreal-based National Bank Financial. Inflation hasn't been 3% since July 2018 and hasn't exceeded that mark since 3.2% in September 2011.
• BOC Governor Tiff Macklem told reporters Thursday he's sticking with his forecast inflation will soon reach around 3% and later recede because some parts of the economy remain very weak. Inflation already jumped to 2.2% in March from 1.1% in February.

• Thursday, May 20 – U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims
  • Claims filed through May 15 are set to dip to 450,000 from 473,000 through May 8, a pandemic low. Initial claims have been trending downward in recent weeks as the labor market gradually improves.
• Continuing claims through May 8 should fall to 3.64 million, according to Bloomberg, following the previous week's 3.65 million.