MNI Global Week Ahead November 16 - 20

Key Things to Watch:

• Tuesday, November 17 – U.S. Retail Sales
  • Sales should rise 0.5% in October, according to Bloomberg, nearly four times slower than September's 1.9% increase that was the smallest since May. That would be the smallest monthly increase since October 2019 when sales were up 0.4%.
  • Excluding motor vehicle and gas station sales, retail sales should be up 0.6%.
  • Surging Covid-19 infections likely curbed in-store business activity in some states, but online shopping should still keep spending relatively high.

• Wednesday, November 18 – U.K. CPI
  • Expectations are for CPI to come in at 0.5% y/y in October, in line with the previous month, and m/m is expected to dip 0.1%. That's firmly below the Bank of England's 2% target.
  • Core inflation is expected at 1.3% y/y, also unchanged from the previous month's reading.
  • Input inflation is expected to improve from September's reading, with input prices seen down 2.6% y/y from -3.7%.

• Thursday, November 19 – U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims
  • Initial jobless claims filed through November 14 should tick slightly higher to 715,000 from 709,000 through November 7, the lowest level since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in March.
• Recent initial claims figures suggest some labor market improvement, but, even while filings for regular state benefits have been shrinking, special CARES Act programs like Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) uptake has been on the rise. That points to some renewed weakness as many unemployed workers exhaust state benefits.