MNI Global Week Ahead: RBA & BOC Meets in Sight

MONDAY

Eurozone Retail Sales: A +0.8% m/m uptick is forecasted for eurozone January retail sales, after the -2.7% m/m slide in December. Slowly recovering consumer confidence in recent months has yet to translate into improved propensity to spend.

US Factory Orders: January US factory orders will likely contract, with -1.5% m/m pencilled in, giving back the +1.8% m/m December uptick which was on the back of the surge in transport orders (largely Boeing’s planes).

TUESDAY

Australia Rate Decision: The RBA is expected to hike rates 25 basis points to a near-11-year high of 3.6% on Tuesday as inflation remains well above target, though softer-than-expected price and growth data will ensure focus on any tweaks to February's hawkish tone.

Germany Factory Orders: A modest +0.3% m/m uptick is pencilled in for German factory orders in January, slowing from +3.2% m/m in December. Note that the December strength was due to large-scale orders, including major military supplies for Ukraine. Orders otherwise contracted into year-end.

WEDNESDAY

Germany Industrial Production / Retail Sales: Consensus expects German industrial production to recover somewhat in January, expanding +1.5% m/m after the -3.1% m/m slump in December. January PMI data remained contractionary, yet moderated for a third month as cost pressures, supply bottlenecks and recessionary fears eased. China’s recent reopening measures are seen as securing a more robust start to 2023 in data to come.

Retail sales are also seen picking up in January, by +2.5% m/m after the stark -5.3% m/m December contraction. Energy bill support will help bolster retail sales going forward, as the high cost of living cuts into household spending appetite.

Eurozone Second GDP Estimate: After German GDP was revised down by to -0.4% q/q there is a strong possibility of the eurozone having stalled in Q4 (versus +0.1% q/q in flash). If other member states report similar downwards revisions, this could push the eurozone economy into contractionary territory in Q4. French and Italian Q4 GDP final prints were unrevised. Focus will be on the detail of the components’ breakdown in the final Q4 GDP data due March 8.

US Trade Balance: The January US trade deficit is projected to deepen by $1.6bln to -$69bln in January.

Canada Interest Rate Decision: The BOC is widely expected to keep rate unchanged at 4.5% as part of its conditional pause. The hawkish implications of a much stronger labour report were somewhat offset by weaker headline CPI and a stronger moderation in core annualised inflation albeit only after an upward revised December print.

THURSDAY

No key data points of interest.

FRIDAY

German Final CPI: Final February data should confirm the upside surprise in German inflation, which accelerated by +1.0% m/m and by +9.3% y/y (vs +9.0% expected) in the harmonised flash print.

UK Monthly GDP / Services / Industrial Production: The January run of UK data is expected to reveal a relatively bleak start to the year, with GDP seen edging up +0.1% m/m after the -0.5% m/m December contraction. IP and manufacturing are projected to be flat. Only services edging up +0.1% m/m after falling -0.8% m/m in December as the FIFA World Cup boost wore off. The February BOE growth forecasts anticipate a -0.3% contraction for Q1.

Canada Labour Force Survey: Canadian unemployment may edge up in the February data, after having held steady near record lows at 5% in January. The labour market remains very tight and closely watched by the BOC for further evidence of building wage pressures.

US Nonfarm Payrolls: The February NFP data has been shifted to a week later due to being a short month. Nonfarm payrolls are seen slowing to a robust +215k in February, after the surprise +517k January jump. This would leave the unemployment rate steady at 3.4%, the lowest in over 53 years.

Payrolls growth in February is typically strong, and will be closely watched ahead of the March 22 FOMC decision following the significant re-pricing higher of rates since January’s bumper payrolls.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
06/03/2023	0730/0830	***		CH	CPI
06/03/2023	0830/0930	**		EU	IHS Markit Final Eurozone Construction PMI
06/03/2023	0930/0930	**		UK	IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI
06/03/2023	1000/1100	**		EU	Retail Sales
06/03/2023	1000/1100			EU	ECB Lane Lecture at Trinity College
06/03/2023	1500/1000	*		CA	Ivey PMI
06/03/2023	1500/1000	**		US	Factory New Orders
06/03/2023	1630/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
06/03/2023	1630/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
07/03/2023	0001/0001	*		UK	BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor
07/03/2023	0030/1130	**		AU	Trade Balance
07/03/2023	0330/1430	***		AU	RBA Rate Decision
07/03/2023	0645/0745	**		CH	Unemployment
07/03/2023	0700/0800	**		DE	Manufacturing Orders
07/03/2023	0800/0900	**		ES	Industrial Production
07/03/2023	1000/1000	**		UK	Gilt Outright Auction Result
07/03/2023	-	***		CN	Trade
07/03/2023	1355/0855	**		US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
07/03/2023	1500/1000	**		US	Wholesale Trade
07/03/2023	1500/1000	**		US	IBD/TIPP Optimism Index
07/03/2023	1500/1000			US	Fed Chair Jerome Powell
07/03/2023	1800/1300	***		US	US Note 03 Year Treasury Auction Result
07/03/2023	2000/1500	*		US	Consumer Credit
08/03/2023	0700/0800	**		DE	Industrial Production
08/03/2023	0700/0800	**		DE	Retail Sales
08/03/2023	0900/1000	*		IT	Retail Sales
08/03/2023	0930/0930			UK	BOE Dhingra at Resolution Foundation
08/03/2023	1000/1000	**		UK	Gilt Outright Auction Result
08/03/2023	1000/1100	***		EU	GDP (final)
08/03/2023	1000/1100	*		EU	Employment
08/03/2023	1000/1100			EU	ECB Lagarde at Women's Day WTO Event
08/03/2023	1000/1100			EU	ECB Panetta Intro at Euro Cyber Resilience Board
08/03/2023	1200/0700	**		US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
08/03/2023	1315/0815	***		US	ADP Employment Report
08/03/2023	1330/0830	**		US	Trade Balance
08/03/2023	1500/1000	***		CA	Bank of Canada Policy Decision
08/03/2023	1500/1000	**		US	JOLTS jobs opening level
08/03/2023	1500/1000	**		US	JOLTS quits Rate
08/03/2023	1500/1000			US	Fed Chair Jerome Powell
08/03/2023	1530/1030	**		US	DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
08/03/2023	1700/1200	***		US	USDA Crop Estimates - WASDE
08/03/2023	1800/1300	**		US	US Note 10 Year Treasury Auction Result
08/03/2023	1900/1400			US	Fed Beige Book
09/03/2023	0130/0930	***		CN	CPI
09/03/2023	0130/0930	***		CN	Producer Price Index
09/03/2023	0700/0800	**		SE	Private Sector Production
09/03/2023	1330/0830	**		US	Jobless Claims
09/03/2023	1330/0830	**		US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
09/03/2023	1500/1000			US	Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr
09/03/2023	1530/1030	**		US	Natural Gas Stocks
09/03/2023	1800/1300	***		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 30 Year Bond
09/03/2023	1830/1330			CA	BOC's Rogers "Economic Progress Report" speech
10/03/2023	0700/0700	**		UK	UK Monthly GDP
10/03/2023	0700/0700	**		UK	Index of Services
10/03/2023	0700/0700	***		UK	Index of Production
10/03/2023	0700/0700	**		UK	Output in the Construction Industry
10/03/2023	0700/0700	**		UK	Trade Balance
10/03/2023	0700/0800	*		NO	CPI Norway
10/03/2023	0700/0800	***		DE	HICP (f)
10/03/2023	0745/0845	*		FR	Foreign Trade
10/03/2023	0900/1000	**		IT	PPI
10/03/2023	0900/1000			EU	ECB Panetta Presentation on Digital Euro
10/03/2023	1330/0830	***		CA	Labour Force Survey
10/03/2023	1330/0830	***		US	Employment Report
10/03/2023	1900/1400	**		US	Treasury Budget