MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD: RBA & BOC Rates Decisions Coming Up

MONDAY

Switzerland CPI: Swiss inflation is expected to continue to cool in the May data, with consensus looking for a 0.3pp deceleration to +2.3% y/y, the lowest since Feb 2022. Slowing food, energy and transport inflation have underpinned recent declines in the headline rate. Prices are projected to re-accelerate on the month by +0.3% after having stalled in April. The core CPI rate is seen edging down 0.2pp to +2.0% y/y. The June 22 meeting baseline currently looks for a further 25bps hike. Markets are pricing a SNB peak rate of between 1.75% and 2.00%.

Eurozone PPI: Eurozone Producer Prices are set to cool further in April, with consensus pencilling in a substantial -2.2% m/m and a 4pp slowdown to +1.9 % y/y, which would be the softest in over two years. A sharp deceleration in energy prices alongside lower commodity and input costs as supply chain pressures ease have underpinned the marked decline in factory-gate inflation. The continuation of slowing PPI has been foreshadowed by softening prices recent PMI data.

Final Services PMIs: The final services PMI prints for May should confirm a firm expansion of the sector in Europe and the US, whilst flagging services inflation concerns as costs and demand conditions remain strong.

US Factory Orders and ISM Services PMI: A 0.8% m/m uptick in US factory orders is pencilled in for April, after aircraft orders provided a March boost. The ISM services PMI is seen up 0.6-points at 52.5, signalling continued strength in the industry as demand remains robust. Of interest will be whether services inflation is again flagged as higher, and more concrete evidence of wariness regarding H2 growth outlooks.

TUESDAY

RBA Rate Decision: The likelihood of another 25bp bump to the Reserve Bank of Australia's official cash rate to 4.1% has risen following a sharp jump in the country's minimum- and award-wage system and a persistently high monthly inflation print in April. See here for more.

Germany Factory Orders: A +3.5% m/m rebound is expected for April factory orders for the largest eurozone member, following the sharp 10.7% m/m decline which reflected weak auto and the recalibration from February army vehicle orders. German unfilled manufacturing orders still remain elevated according to Destatis at 7.4 months of work in March, compared to March 2020 levels of 5.9 months.

Eurozone Retail Trade: After a contractionary end to Q1, April euro area retail sales are projected to be marginally positive at +0.2% m/m, remaining -3.0% below April 2022 levels. The EC's Eurozone consumer confidence improved further in April, alongside the major purchase intentions index, implying outlooks are slowly brightening yet remain subdued.

WEDNESDAY

Germany Industrial Production: Following the robust French April print, German industrial production is expected to follow suit with a +1.0% m/m and +1.4% y/y uptick. Headwinds to demand have been flagged by the contractionary PMI over recent months, alongside muted IFO expectations imply lacklustre production buffered by previous orders for now.

BOC Rate Decision: The Bloomberg consensus predicts the Bank of Canada will again hold rates steady at 4.5% at the June meet. Yet concerns that the current pause was premature have mounted as CPI remains elevated and the upside surprise to Q1 GDP showed underlying excess demand remained robust. Markets are pricing around a one-third chance of a 25bp hike.

THURSDAY

Eurozone GDP Final Estimate: After a surprise downward revision saw German final Q1 GDP at -0.3% q/q, from 0.0% estimated in the flash, the eurozone final Q1 estimate is expected to be flat rather than +0.1% q/q. It remains unlikely that eurozone contracted in Q1, however a negative reading means the bloc will have entered an (albeit very shallow) technical recession.

FRIDAY

Italy Industrial Production: A more muted +0.2% m/m uptick is anticipated for Italian IP in April, improving from the -0.6% m/m March contraction.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
05/06/2023	2300/0900	*		AU	IHS Markit Final Australia Services PMI
05/06/2023	0030/0930	**		JP	IHS Markit Final Japan Services PMI
05/06/2023	0130/1130			AU	Business Indicators
05/06/2023	0145/0945	**		CN	IHS Markit Final China Services PMI
05/06/2023	0600/0800	**		DE	Trade Balance
05/06/2023	0630/0830	***		CH	CPI
05/06/2023	0715/0915	**		ES	S&P Global Services PMI (f)
05/06/2023	0745/0945	**		IT	S&P Global Services PMI (f)
05/06/2023	0750/0950	**		FR	IHS Markit Services PMI (f)
05/06/2023	0755/0955	**		DE	IHS Markit Services PMI (f)
05/06/2023	0800/1000	**		EU	IHS Markit Services PMI (f)
05/06/2023	0830/0930	**		UK	S&P Global Services PMI (Final)
05/06/2023	0900/1100	**		EU	PPI
05/06/2023	1300/1500			EU	ECB Lagarde Intro at ECON Hearing
05/06/2023	1345/0945	***		US	IHS Markit Services Index (final)
05/06/2023	1400/1000	***		US	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
05/06/2023	1400/1000	**		US	Factory New Orders
06/06/2023	2301/0001	*		UK	BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor
06/06/2023	0430/1430	***		AU	RBA Rate Decision
06/06/2023	0600/0800	**		DE	Manufacturing Orders
06/06/2023	0700/0900	**		ES	Industrial Production
06/06/2023	0730/0930	**		EU	IHS Markit Final Eurozone Construction PMI
06/06/2023	0830/0930	**		UK	IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI
06/06/2023	0900/1100	**		EU	Retail Sales
06/06/2023	0900/1000	**		UK	Gilt Outright Auction Result
06/06/2023	1230/0830	*		CA	Building Permits
06/06/2023	1255/0855	**		US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
06/06/2023	1400/1000	*		CA	Ivey PMI
06/06/2023	1400/1000	**		US	IBD/TIPP Optimism Index
07/06/2023	0130/1130	***		AU	Quarterly GDP
07/06/2023	0545/0745	**		CH	Unemployment
07/06/2023	0600/0800	**		DE	Industrial Production
07/06/2023	0645/0845	*		FR	Foreign Trade
07/06/2023	0750/0950			EU	ECB de Guindos Speech at EC/ECB Conference
07/06/2023	0800/1000	*		IT	Retail Sales
07/06/2023	0900/1000	**		UK	Gilt Outright Auction Result
07/06/2023	0910/1110			EU	ECB Panetta Moderates EC/ECB Conference Panel
07/06/2023	1100/0700	**		US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
07/06/2023	1230/0830	**		CA	International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance)
07/06/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Trade Balance
07/06/2023	1400/1000	***		CA	Bank of Canada Policy Decision
07/06/2023	1430/1030	**		US	DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
07/06/2023	1900/1500	*		US	Consumer Credit
08/06/2023	2350/0850	**		JP	GDP (r)
08/06/2023	0130/1130	**		AU	Trade Balance
08/06/2023	0900/1100	***		EU	GDP (final)
08/06/2023	0900/1100	*		EU	Employment
08/06/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Jobless Claims
08/06/2023	1230/0830	**		US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
08/06/2023	1400/1000	**		US	Wholesale Trade
08/06/2023	1430/1030	**		US	Natural Gas Stocks
08/06/2023	1920/1520			CA	BOC Deputy Beadury speech
09/06/2023	0600/0800	*		NO	CPI Norway
09/06/2023	0600/0800	**		SE	Private Sector Production
09/06/2023	0800/1000	*		IT	Industrial Production
09/06/2023	0800/1000			EU	ECB de Guindos in Capital Requirements Seminar at EU Parliament
09/06/2023	1230/0830	***		CA	Labour Force Survey
09/06/2023	1400/1000	*		US	Services Revenues
09/06/2023	1600/1200	***		US	USDA Crop Estimates - WASDE
09/06/2023	1800/1400	**		US	Treasury Budget