MNI Global Week Ahead September 28 - October 2

Key Things to Watch For:

• Thursday, October 1 – U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims
  
  
  • Initial jobless claims filed through September 26 should reach 850,000 Thursday following a slight uptick in claims filed through September 19.
• Initial claims appear to be stabilizing at stubbornly high levels, suggesting the labor market recovery may be crawling to a near standstill.
• Still, levels of continuing claims are still falling, a signal that rehiring activity may be strengthening.

• Friday, October 2 – Eurozone Flash Inflation Estimate
  
  
• The eurozone September flash inflation data will be released Friday, with many looking for a repeat of the negative year-on-year reading seen in August, with some expecting a negative reading for months to come.
• Headline Y/Y is seen -0.2%. However, core inflation -- although still under pressure -- is seen a touch higher, coming in at 0.5% y/y versus the 0.4% seen in August.

• Friday, October 2 – U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls
  
  
• U.S. job growth further slowed in September, with markets expecting nonfarm payrolls to increase 865,000 following a 1.027 million gain in August.
• The unemployment rate should fall slight by two-tenths to 8.2% from a surprise dip to 8.4% in August. That would be the smallest decline in unemployment since it began falling from its Covid-19 peak in May.
• Private payrolls are expected to have grown by 900,000 in September, slowing from a 1.027 million increase in August.
• Gains in government payrolls, accounting for 25% of total payrolls growth in August, should fall dramatically after it was boosted by the hiring of 238,000 temporary Census workers last month. These contracts are set to expire at the end of September.