MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD: UK Labour Data and Canada CPI Eyed

MONDAY

Sweden CPI: Swedish CPI is seen edging back up 0.1pp to +10.7% y/y in April, with underlying CPIF holding steady at +8.0% y/y and CPIF ex. energy slowing by 0.2pp to +8.7% y/y. Despite showing positive signs of easing in the March data, April CPI expectations reiterate that Swedish inflation remains high sticky. The Riksbank delivered the anticipated 50bp hike in April, with their numerical policy rate path peaks at 3.65%, implying a 60% probability of a 25bp hike in either June or September.

Eurozone Industrial Production: A -1.0% m/m contraction is pencilled in for euro area IP in March, after two consecutive months of m/m growth. The euro area March manufacturing output PMI increased to a 10-month high, boosted by improving supply chains. Yet with Germany, Italy and France posting March contractions, a stronger end to Q1 is highly unlikely to materialise.

TUESDAY

UK Labour Report: Recent UK labour market data pointed to further indications of labour supply pressures beginning to ease, whilst wage growth remained elevated albeit likely beyond the peak. Falling vacancies and anecdotal evidence flagging economic factors holding back on recruitment were flagged in March.

Consensus is looking for a 0.2pp uptick in earnings ex. bonuses to +6.8% y/y. The BOE noted at their meeting on Thursday, that “although still elevated, nominal private sector wage growth [has] been close to expectations” and lowered their unemployment rate forecast to be flat at 3.8% in Q2.

Germany ZEW Survey: The ZEW survey of German financial market experts is anticipated to deteriorate for a third consecutive month in May, with consensus looking for the expectations index to fall over nine points to -5.0, implying that no significant improvement is projected for the German economy in the next six months. ZEW German current sentiment will likely falter again slightly, after the April boost signalled alleviated concerns about a possible financial market crisis, following the sharp March decline fuelled by banking-sector turbulence.

Eurozone GDP Second Estimate: The prelim estimate for eurozone GDP posted +0.1% q/q and +1.3% y/y first quarter growth. The second release may offer updated numbers, but for detail on sector performance or expenditure we will have to wait for the final release.

Canada CPI: Canadian inflation is set to cool further in April, with around a 0.3pp decline to +4.0% y/y pencilled in. The BoC expects headline CPI to slow to an average 3.3% in Q2 after which the rate of moderation should decelerate to 2.5% by Q4. The BoC is currently holding rates at 4.5%, although prepared to hike again should inflationary pressures prove stickier.

US Retail Sales & Industrial Production: US retail sales are seen recovering somewhat in the April advance data, with consensus pencilling in +0.7% m/m after the -1.0% m/m March contraction. Sales excluding auto are seen as weaker at +0.4% m/m. US retail sales data have lately given a good indication of broader consumer spending, but with real consumer spending clearly lagging with around 2% annualised as of the February data.

US industrial production is expected to stall on the month in April, after the +0.4% m/m March growth rounded off a robust Q1 aggregate print. The underlying health of the industry remains tepid, after strong utilities production in March is likely to ease off and the Chicago PMI and ISM PMI signalling continued contraction.

WEDNESDAY

Eurozone Final HICP: Eurozone HICP should confirm April estimates, after inflation edged up by 0.1pp to +7.0% y/y in the flash data, against consensus expectations of holding steady at +6.9% y/y. Energy base-effects largely pushed the print up after having dropped significantly in March. The ECB reiterated at their May meeting that inflation in the bloc remains “continues to be too high for too long”, with markets pricing in close to two more 25bp hikes this year.

THURSDAY

No data of note.

FRIDAY

UK Consumer Confidence: UK consumer confidence is expected to recover a further three points in the May GfK report to -27, the strongest since February 2022. Despite recent broad-based improvements, spending will likely remain pressured in the near term. Joe Staton, Client Strategy Director GfK told MNI in April that "the fundamentals haven't changed; inflation is high, real incomes are still falling, the squeeze on household budgets remains".

Germany PPI: Consensus is looking for a seventh consecutive decline in Germany PPI in April, albeit to a lesser extent at around -0.2% m/m, whilst easing 2.7pp to +4.8% y/y. Cooling energy prices have been driving the fall in producer prices, which now stands substantially lower than the record peak of +45.8% y/y recorded in August/September. Destatis flagged that Q1 PPI data will likely be revised down in the April release as the delayed effects of the electricity and gas price breaks will be taken into account retrospectively.

Canada CPI's Downwards Trajectory:

Source: Statistics Canada

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
15/05/2023	0600/0800	***		SE	Inflation report
15/05/2023	0900/1100	**		EU	Industrial Production
15/05/2023	-			EU	ECB Lagarde & Panetta in Eurogroup Meeting
15/05/2023	1215/0815	**		CA	CMHC Housing Starts
15/05/2023	1230/0830	**		CA	Wholesale Trade
15/05/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Empire State Manufacturing Survey
15/05/2023	1300/0900	*		CA	CREA Existing Home Sales
15/05/2023	1315/0915			US	Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari
15/05/2023	1400/1000			CA	BOC Financial System Survey report
15/05/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
15/05/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
15/05/2023	1600/1700			UK	BOE Pill Monetary Policy Report Q&A
15/05/2023	2000/1600	**		US	TICS
15/05/2023	2100/1700			US	Fed Governor Lisa Cook Fed Governor Lisa Cook
16/05/2023	0200/1000	***		CN	Fixed-Asset Investment
16/05/2023	0200/1000	***		CN	Retail Sales
16/05/2023	0200/1000	***		CN	Industrial Output
16/05/2023	0200/1000	**		CN	Surveyed Unemployment Rate
16/05/2023	0600/0700	***		UK	Labour Market Survey
16/05/2023	0900/1100	***		EU	GDP (p)
16/05/2023	0900/1100	*		EU	Trade Balance
16/05/2023	0900/1100	*		EU	Employment
16/05/2023	0900/1100	**		IT	Italy Final HICP
16/05/2023	0900/1100	***		DE	ZEW Current Conditions Index
16/05/2023	0900/1100	***		DE	ZEW Current Expectations Index
16/05/2023	-			EU	ECB de Guindos in ECOFIN Meeting
16/05/2023	1215/0815			US	Cleveland Fed's Loretta Mester
16/05/2023	1230/0830	***		CA	CPI
16/05/2023	1230/0830	**		CA	Monthly Survey of Manufacturing
16/05/2023	1230/0830	***		US	Retail Sales
16/05/2023	1255/0855	**		US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
16/05/2023	1315/0915	***		US	Industrial Production
16/05/2023	1400/1000	*		US	Business Inventories
16/05/2023	1400/1000	**		US	NAHB Home Builder Index
16/05/2023	1400/1000			US	Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr
16/05/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill
16/05/2023	1530/1130	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill
16/05/2023	1615/1215			US	New York Fed's John Williams
16/05/2023	1915/1515			US	Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan
16/05/2023	2300/1900			US	Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic
16/05/2023	2300/1900			US	Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee
17/05/2023	2350/0850	***		JP	GDP
17/05/2023	0130/1130	***		AU	Quarterly wage price index
17/05/2023	0900/1100	***		EU	HICP (f)
17/05/2023	0900/1000	**		UK	Gilt Outright Auction Result
17/05/2023	0900/1100			EU	ECB Elderson Panels Beyond Growth Conference
17/05/2023	0930/1130			EU	ECB Panetta Presentation on Digital Euro Kangaroo Group Event
17/05/2023	0950/1050			UK	BOE Bailey Keynote Speech at British Chambers of Commerce
17/05/2023	1100/0700	**		US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
17/05/2023	1230/0830	*		CA	International Canadian Transaction in Securities
17/05/2023	1230/0830	***		US	Housing Starts
17/05/2023	1430/1030	**		US	DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
17/05/2023	1515/1715			EU	ECB de Guindos Closes IESE Banking Meeting
17/05/2023	1700/1300	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond
18/05/2023	2350/0850	**		JP	Trade
18/05/2023	0130/1130	***		AU	Labor force survey
18/05/2023	0630/0830			EU	ECB de Guindos Remarks at PwC Seminar
18/05/2023	0745/0845			UK	BOE Pill Opens CCBS Macro-finance Workshop
18/05/2023	0915/1015			UK	BOE Bailey Broadbent, Ramsden give TSC evidence on QE, QT at Bank, Threadneedle St
18/05/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Jobless Claims
18/05/2023	1230/0830	**		US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
18/05/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
18/05/2023	1305/0905			US	Fed Governor Philip Jefferson
18/05/2023	1330/0930			US	Fed Vice for Supervision Michael Barr
18/05/2023	1400/1000	***		US	NAR existing home sales
18/05/2023	1400/1000			US	Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan
18/05/2023	1430/1030	**		US	Natural Gas Stocks
18/05/2023	1500/1100			CA	BOC Governor press conference to discuss Financial System Review
18/05/2023	1700/1300	**		US	US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 10 Year Note
19/05/2023	2301/0001	**		UK	Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence
19/05/2023	2330/0830	***		JP	CPI
19/05/2023	0600/0800	**		DE	PPI
19/05/2023	1230/0830	**		CA	Retail Trade
19/05/2023	1245/0845			US	New York Fed's John Williams
19/05/2023	1300/0900			US	Fed Governor Michelle Bowman
19/05/2023	1400/1000	*		US	Services Revenues
19/05/2023	1455/1655			EU	ECB Schnabel Speech at Conference on Financial Stability and Monetary Policy
19/05/2023	1500/1100			US	Fed Chair Jerome Powell
19/05/2023	1600/1800			EU	ECB Schnabel Panels Conference on Financial Stability and Monetary Policy
19/05/2023	1900/2100			EU	ECB Lagarde Video Presentation at Banco Central Brasil