MNI GLOBAL WEEK AHEAD - US CPI, UK GDP and China Data

TUESDAY AND FRIDAY - SCANDI CPIs

Norway and Sweden report September CPI next week on Tuesday and Friday respectively.

In Norway, the Norges Bank forecasted Q3 CPI at 4.79% Y/Y and CPI-ATE at 6.25% Y/Y in its September monetary policy report. Norges Bank have guided for an additional hike in December, so only a large downside surprise in inflation in the coming months will push them off this track.

In Sweden, the Riksbank have adopted a fully data-dependent approach, assigning heightened importance to the upcoming CPIF prints. The Riksbank forecasts September CPIF to be 3.75% Y/Y and CPIF ex-energy to be 6.57%. Of particular interest will continue to be services inflation, which was highlighted by several Executive Board members in the September meeting minutes.

TUESDAY AND FRIDAY - HUNGARY AND POLAND CPIs

Inflation across CEE takes focus in EM space, with Hungarian CPI due Tuesday, and Polish final CPI on Friday.

Hungary CPI should detail a pick up in the pace of disinflation with a notable moderation in headline inflation from +16.4% y/y in August to +12.4% in September. Both central bank and government officials have indicated that they expect single-digits inflation as early as November – a development which could potentially facilitate faster rate cuts.

On Friday, Poland will report its final CPI readings for September. Flash data suggested that headline inflation eased sharply to +8.2% Y/Y from +10.1% prior, as prices fell 0.4% M/M. Several analysts have suggested that various pre-election measures rolled out by the government (free prescriptions for selected age groups, retroactive electricity price cuts) may have temporarily amplified disinflation last month.

WEDNESDAY - US CPI

US September CPI is released on Thursday after the August print saw core CPI come in above expectations at 0.28% M/M (vs 0.2% cons). The August headline rate was in line at 0.63% M/M (vs 0.6% cons), driven largely by a surge in energy prices. The monthly prints implied annual rates of 4.35% Y/Y for core (vs 4.3% cons) and 3.67% Y/Y for the headline (vs 3.6% cons). Expectations for September are for a small softening in annual headline rates to 4.1% Y/Y for core and 3.6% Y/Y for the headline, while monthly prints for core and headline are both expected to be 0.3% M/M. The August core print had several cross-currents, with shelter and used cars pulling the print down while airfares and selected other services acting in the opposite direction.

THURSDAY - UK NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

The UK data highlight of the week will be the release of UK monthly activity data for August (GDP and its components) on Thursday. The early consensus looks for around half of July’s -0.5%M/M fall to be reversed in August (+0.2%M/M expected). The majority of this is due to an expected +0.3%M/M print in services with industrial and manufacturing sectors both expected to contract further in the month. There will be historic revisions to the monthly data up to 2021 to take into account the indicative Blue Book data. We think that the MPC will be paying increasing attention to output data going forward and we have already seen MPC members note that it is possible to seeing previous tightening weighing on activity data.

THROUGH THE WEEK - CHINA DATA

The Chinese mainland returns from its Golden Week & National Day holiday next week.Domestic tourism revenue hit CNY753.4bn for the eight-day holiday period, representing a 1.5% increase vs. 2019 (pre-COVID times). 826mn domestic trips were made in the window, representing a 4.1% increase vs. ’19 levels. Still, the latter number was shy of the pre-holiday projection provided by the country’s tourism ministry (just under 900mn).These figures add some sway to the economic stabilisation case re: China, although they were not overwhelmingly ‘strong,’ and seem to be less encouraging when compared to the Labour Day/Dragon Boat festival equivalents seen earlier this year. In the week ahead we are set to receive a deluge of data covering money supply and credit, international trade and inflation. Money supply and credit data is expected to firm against August levels, while the move away from cycle lows in both the CPI & PPI Y/Y readings is expected to extend, albeit relatively marginally.In markets, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index has moved away from recent lows, although global participants will be attuned to early CSI 300 post-holiday performance given the well-documented degree of worry surrounding China.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Flag	Country	Event
09/10/2023	0600/0800	**		DE	Industrial Production
09/10/2023	0600/0800	**		NO	Norway GDP
09/10/2023	0800/1000			EU	ECB's de Guindos Speaks at Conference
09/10/2023	0900/0500	*		US	Business Inventories
09/10/2023	1315/0915			US	Fed's Michael Barr
09/10/2023	1500/1100	**		US	NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations
09/10/2023	1730/1330			US	Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson
09/10/2023	2000/2100			UK	BoE's Mann speaks at NABE
10/10/2023	2301/0001	*		UK	BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor
10/10/2023	0600/0800	*		NO	CPI Norway
10/10/2023	0600/0800	**		SE	Monthly National Accounts
10/10/2023	0800/1000	*		IT	Industrial Production
10/10/2023	0900/1000	*		UK	Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result
10/10/2023	0930/1030			UK	BOE PFC minutes
10/10/2023	1000/0600	**		US	NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
10/10/2023	-	***		CN	Money Supply
10/10/2023	-	***		CN	New Loans
10/10/2023	-	***		CN	Social Financing
10/10/2023	1255/0855	**		US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
10/10/2023	1300/0900			US	New York Fed's Roberto Perli
10/10/2023	1330/0930			US	Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic
10/10/2023	1400/1000	**		US	Wholesale Trade
10/10/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
10/10/2023	1530/1130	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
10/10/2023	1700/1300	***		US	US Note 03 Year Treasury Auction Result
10/10/2023	1700/1300	*		US	US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill
10/10/2023	1700/1300			US	Fed Governor Christopher Waller
10/10/2023	1730/1330			US	Fed Governor Christopher Waller
10/10/2023	1900/1500			US	Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari
10/10/2023	2200/1800			US	San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly
11/10/2023	0600/0800	***		DE	HICP (f)
11/10/2023	0815/0415			US	Fed Governor Michelle Bowman
11/10/2023	0900/1000	**		UK	Gilt Outright Auction Result
11/10/2023	1100/0700	**		US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
11/10/2023	1230/0830	*		CA	Building Permits
11/10/2023	1230/0830	***		US	PPI
11/10/2023	1415/1015			US	Fed Governor Christopher Waller
11/10/2023	1615/1215			US	Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic
11/10/2023	1700/1300	**		US	US Note 10 Year Treasury Auction Result
11/10/2023	1800/1400	*		US	FOMC Rate Decision
11/10/2023	2030/1630			US	Boston Fed's Susan Collins
12/10/2023	0600/0700	**		UK	UK Monthly GDP
12/10/2023	0600/0700	**		UK	Index of Services
12/10/2023	0600/0700	***		UK	Index of Production
12/10/2023	0600/0700	**		UK	Trade Balance
12/10/2023	0600/0700	**		UK	Output in the Construction Industry
12/10/2023	0740/0940			EU	ECB's Elderson attends EC Summit
12/10/2023	0900/1000			UK	BoE's Pill speaks in Marrakesh
12/10/2023	1100/1300			EU	ECB's Panetta participates in IMF panel
12/10/2023	1230/0830	***		US	Jobless Claims
12/10/2023	1230/0830	**		US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
12/10/2023	1230/0830	***		US	CPI
12/10/2023	1430/1030	**		US	Natural Gas Stocks
12/10/2023	1500/1100	**		US	DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
12/10/2023	1600/1200	***		US	USDA Crop Estimates - WASDE
12/10/2023	1700/1300			US	Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic
12/10/2023	1700/1300	***		US	US Treasury Auction Result for 30 Year Bond
12/10/2023	1800/1400	**		US	Treasury Budget
12/10/2023	2000/1600			US	Boston Fed's Susan Collins
13/10/2023	0130/0930	***		CN	CPI
13/10/2023	0130/0930	***		CN	Producer Price Index
13/10/2023	0600/0800	***		SE	Inflation Report
13/10/2023	0645/0845	***		FR	HICP (f)
13/10/2023	0700/0900	***		ES	HICP (f)
13/10/2023	0800/0900			UK	BoE's Bailey speaks at Institute of International Finance Annual Membership Meeting
13/10/2023	0900/1100	**		EU	Industrial Production
13/10/2023	-	***		CN	Trade
13/10/2023	1230/0830	**		US	Import/Export Price Index
13/10/2023	1300/0900			US	Philadelphia Fed's Pat Harker
13/10/2023	1300/1500			EU	ECB's Lagarde participates in IMF seminar
13/10/2023	1400/1000	**		US	U. Mich. Survey of Consumers
13/10/2023	1630/1730			UK	BoE's Cunliffe speaks at Institute of International Finance