Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Global economic growth could weaken by a full percentage point to 2.8% by the end of this decade without policy reforms that revive productivity, the IMF said Wednesday, a drag led by emerging markets that could make it harder for governments to service their debts or fund other priorities.
"An entrenched low-growth environment, coupled with high interest rates, would threaten debt sustainability and could fuel social tension and hinder the green transition. Furthermore, expectations of weaker growth may deter investment in capital and technologies and so, in part, become self-fulfilling," according to the report by deputy research division chief Nan Li and economist Chiara Maggi. (MNI INTERVIEW: Germany Faces Stagnation - Former Experts Chair)
The report on the IMF's five-year growth outlook shows a decline in forecasts dating back to the 2008 global financial crisis. Half of the recent productivity decline versus the average from 2000-2019 comes from “total factor productivity” or how resources are allocated within and across firms. The IMF said that means there’s some reason for optimism that policy changes can undo some of the decline. Smaller working-age populations and weak investment are also factors.
"This highlights the urgent need for policies and structural reforms that enhance growth by improving capital and labor allocation to more productive firms, enhancing labor force participation, and harnessing the potential of artificial intelligence, the Fund said. "Such measures are critical, especially in light of challenges such as high public debt and geoeconomic fragmentation, which could further constrain global growth."
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.